Through 2005 and 2006 the list of teams capable of beating the All Blacks at their best began with the All Blacks. And then it ended. The only crumb of comfort, and a small one it was, was a one-point defeat to South Africa in a dead rubber at the end of the 2006 Tri-Nations.
And then the unthinkable happened. They suffered a 20-15 defeat to Australia in this year's Tri-Nations, and suddenly the sceptics came out of hiding and started sniffing around the possibility that, once again, the All Blacks had peaked too soon.
If they have tensed up this year - and that defeat to Australia was due mainly to the sin-binning of Carl Hayman - then it is symptomatic of a team nearing the goal on which it is focussed. Like the Australian cricket team in the CB Series earlier this year - when they lost the final to England before dominating the World Cup - their attention has been drawn towards their main ambition, and away from the game in front of them.
To stack against that one defeat, the All Blacks have still won the Tri-Nations three times in succession, beaten the Lions 3-0, and inflicted the heaviest home defeats on France and England in their history. Over the last three years, New Zealand have produced some of the best rugby that has ever been played. But on the field, there are perhaps two areas that are weaker (weaker that is, not weak) than other aspects of their play.
The line-out is one area where South Africa have a distinct advantage: New Zealand are not hot at contesting opposition ball, and that set-piece is not nearly so secure a method of securing possession as their scrum has proven to be. Another chink lies in the centre, where Tana Umaga's retirement has left a little uncertainty at No13. Inside, an inability to choose between the contrasting styles of the astute Aaron Mauger and the expressive Luke McAllister means that the midfield combination isn't a settled one. Finally, Dan Carter's form has dipped a little from the imperious heights he has occupied since coming into the team. Mind you, even when diminished he is the finest fly-half in the game.
As a counterweight to their strengths it doesn't amount to much. Graham Henry has constructed a formidable pack, boasting the world's finest prop in Hayman, and one of the great back rows in Jerry Collins, Rodney So'oialo and Richie McCaw. Few teams in history have contested the breakdown as fiercely, and shrewdly, as that trio. Their strength up front has made the side less reliant on the staggering, swaggering brilliance of their back three, which is shockingly incisive with the ball in hand.
Off the pitch, Graham Henry appears to have given his side the best possible preparation for the Cup. The ability, honed on the training field, to switch between game-plans without compromising the level of performance is one of the key reasons why this side is better equipped than that of 2003 to win the tournament. Another is the depth of talent in the squad. Henry was able to change his entire first team over the course of two Tests against Wales and Ireland without any loss of potency. There is cover for every position, barring, perhaps, the two most important, McCaw and Carter.
Yet, as brilliant as they are, the feeling persists among fans from other countries that maybe, just maybe, the All Blacks will bottle it. Partly this is just the product of history. More so, I'd attribute it to the intense levels of expectation and pressure that are put on them by their fans and media. The All Blacks are subject to the kind of scrutiny English people would associate with the football team. The ability of individuals to overcome the fear of failure that results from that pressure will be key.
The question for New Zealand is the great what if? What if they are seven points down with 10 minutes to play in the semi-finals? What if they lose a prop to the sin-bin when the scores are tied? What if Carter needs to slot a drop goal in the last minute to win the trophy? These are all things that great teams, World Cup-winning teams, need to be able to answer. In those small moments, when the possibility of defeat becomes a reality, character is the only thing that can see a team through.
And for the All Blacks there is the added burden of the jersey, and all that comes with it, as well as the shadow of the previous three campaigns. Much as Henry can prepare contingency plans, it is the character and quality of the players on the pitch that determines whether a side survives those moments. Is McCaw as inspiring a leader as Martin Johnson or John Eales? Is Carter as ice-cool under the most intense pressure as Joel Stransky or Jonny Wilkinson? Are the All Blacks a truly great team?
My suspicion is that the answer is yes, but we won't have the proof for another six weeks.
Squad - forwards: Anton Oliver, Keven Mealamu, Andrew Hore; Carl Hayman, Neemia Tialata, Tony Woodcock, Greg Somerville; Chris Jack, Keith Robinson, Ali Williams; Reuben Thorne, Jerry Collins, Sione Lauaki, Chris Masoe, Richie McCaw (capt), Rodney So'oialo.
Backs: Mils Muliaina, Leon MacDonald, Doug Howlett, Joe Rokocoko, Sitiveni Sivivatu, Isaia Toeava, Conrad Smith, Luke McAlister, Aaron Mauger, Daniel Carter, Nick Evans, Byron Kelleher, Brendon Leonard, Andrew Ellis.
Tournament odds: 1-2
World ranking: 1
