Frank Hadden is an incurable optimist. In Scottish rugby it is a rare quality, though the coach has managed, superficially at least, to spread it among his squad. That is despite the fact that Scotland have slipped to 11th in the world rankings after "winning" the wooden spoon in this year's Six Nations. While the players claim to be confident, and their Cup campaign will hinge on the strength of that conviction, the rugby public have a lingering suspicion that there is more bull than bravado about all the positive talk.
This is partly because Hadden's squad have done their preparation in privacy. Away from the public and the ugly club and country debate which has infected Scottish rugby. They retreated into what was reputedly an absurdly brutal summer training camp, run with a Clive Woodward-esque emphasis on meticulous and scientific preparation by the Scottish Institute of Sport. When they emerged again, at the far end of June, it was a little like the before and after pictures in those old Charles Atlas adverts. Hadden placed such an emphasis on strength and conditioning work that some of the players had made 5kg gains in their weight statistics.
The brawn is for the benefit of Scotland's impotent attack. A chronic inability to score tries is a crippling flaw. Hadden will be hoping that his side will be able to batter their way to narrow victories, relying on errors by exhausted opponents to provide the openings. It is not a method that will make for high scores.
Over the last four years Scotland have consistently been able to stay in games, but rarely been able to win them. They are prone to producing an hour of monumental effort and possession, producing little reward, and then disappearing for crucial 10 or 20-minute stints. That inability to contain sides throughout 80 minutes, coupled with the difficulties they endeavour in turning possession into points, can, at its worst, leave them looking incredibly impoverished.
The success of their entire campaign hinges on the final group game, against Italy. All the focus, preparation and expectation is geared towards it. The pressure will be immense. It will be a huge decision for both as to whether they should field first or second-choice sides for the seemingly unwinnable game against New Zealand. That leaves the two to battle for the other qualifying spot.
Italy are holding the high ground, having won 37-17 at Murrayfield in February. A convincing summer Test series would have pushed that result out of mind, but Hadden opted to play just two warm-up games. A 31-21 win over Ireland's second-string was made all the more redundant by a 27-3 hammering by South Africa.
In that match, as with the loss to Italy, Scotland shipped three tries in less than 10 minutes. It suggests that, hamstrung by their over-reliance on Chris Paterson's boot, they panic when they go behind by a significant distance.
If they do beat Italy, the pressure will ease in the quarter-finals. They will not be expecting to progress beyond there. In contrast, Ireland and France, both very familiar opponents, will be feeling significantly more heat. Argentina, meanwhile, do not have the kind of expansive game which causes the Scots most problems. Whisper it, but the Scots are potentially capable of a surprise win.
Don't snigger too much: it was only two years ago that they beat both England and France in the Six Nations.
Their robust pack will contain the inspirational Jason White, who missed the Six Nations with a severe knee injury. Surrounding him is a pack of formidably big men, if not brilliant ball-players. For all the size and power of James Hamilton and Euan Murray, Scotland were overcome in both the scrum and the line-out by the Springboks. France and Ireland, though, are not such fierce opposition up front. Behind the pack the Scots are spoilt for choice at scrum-half, where Chris Cusiter, Mike Blair and Rory Lawson are all viable starters.
Brothers Sean and Rory Lamont offer some power and gumption in the back three, and, of course, in Chris Paterson they have one of the game's great goal kickers. Paterson played at fly-half against South Africa, in an effort to bring his game-breaking sidestep and superior vision and understanding into the game more. He was grossly exposed there, though, at fault for the first two tries, and looks likely to return to full-back or the wing. That will leave the more pedestrian Dan Parks at stand-off, inside an uncertain centre pairing. It is here, in the middle of the back line, that Scotland are most vulnerable.
Hadden's timing could be spot on: the rust so evident in that last warm-up game will be dispelled by their two opening fixtures against Romania and Portugal.
History has taught most rugby fans not to be shocked by the Scots' ability to occasionally produce epic performances, but to do that they will have to get through the crucial 80 minutes against Italy without having at least 10 that are truly awful, and if Hadden's confidence is mistaken, that will be beyond them.
Squad - forwards: J Barclay (Glasgow Warriors), K Brown (Glasgow Warriors), D Callam (Edinburgh), R Ford (Glasgow Warriors), J Hamilton (Leicester), N Hines (Perpignan), A Hogg (Edinburgh), A Jacobsen (Edinburgh), G Kerr (Glasgow Warriors), S Lawson (Sale Sharks), S MacLeod (Llanelli Scarlets), E Murray (Northampton), S Murray (Montauban), C Smith (Edinburgh), S Taylor (Stade Francais), G Thomson (Glasgow Warriors), J White (Sale Sharks, captain).
Backs: M Blair (Edinburgh), C Cusiter (Perpignan), R Dewey (Ulster), M Di Rollo (Edinburgh), A Henderson (Glasgow Warriors), R Lamont (Sale Sharks), S Lamont (Northampton), R Lawson (Gloucester), D Parks (Glasgow Warriors), C Paterson (Gloucester), H Southwell (Edinburgh), N Walker (Ospreys), S Webster (Edinburgh).
Tournament odds: 250-1
World ranking: 11
