Finally after all the waiting we are here. This is the week when France suddenly becomes the centre of the world for rugby fans. So it's time to dust off the old Castaignède crystal ball and make some predictions on what is going to happen over the next seven weeks. It's not an oval crystal ball so I'm not sure it's totally reliable, but anyway this is how it sees the tournament working out.

Firstly the pool stage; this may seem like a fait accompli for the major teams - apart from France, Argentina and Ireland who contest Pool D (for Death) and Scotland and Italy who will battle for second place behind New Zealand in Pool C - but these aren't the only issues. The point about this stage is that the big teams have no room to slip up. There is no easy way back in, for example, if France lose to Ireland or Argentina because they will be condemned to an away quarter-final against the All Blacks.

There are also other things to consider early on. How will France go into the tournament after all the weeks of pressure and can New Zealand confirm their status as favourites? There are huge expectations in teams like Argentina and Ireland, the question of how nations like Georgia and the USA are progressing and the hope that a team like Samoa, Tonga or Fiji will bring down one of the more established nations.

I think Scotland and Argentina will be the victims in the two three-way pool battles. It's a tight call with the Pumas, but their friendly matches against Wales and a Belgian Select XV were disappointing and if they are beaten by France on Friday I'd wonder if they could bounce back against Ireland.

I'd back Italy to go through rather than Scotland because of the sheer speed of their progress under Pierre Berbizier compared with that of Scotland's under Frank Hadden. The Italians are improving rapidly and the game needs to look at supporting their domestic league because currently most of their good players are going abroad, and Europe could do with another strong domestic competition. A quarter-final place would be a great boost for them.

Italy wouldn't be an easy challenge for France in the quarter-finals, though. We never find it straightforward against the Azzurri, although I can't see Les Bleus losing in front of their home crowd, especially if they are on a roll after turning over Ireland and Argentina.

For the All Blacks on the other hand I don't think a quarter-final against Ireland will be a huge worry. There is little prospect of their gentle stroll to the semi-final being interrupted. Instead, they will steadily be building for the final two matches.

England are unlikely to beat South Africa in the pool stage from what we've seen of both sides this summer and after Tonga and Samoa they will feel like they've been through a cocktail-shaker. Les Rosbifs will not make it beyond a quarter-final against Australia, which isn't shameful, it's merely a reflection of how things have gone since 2003.

As for South Africa, they could be the biggest surprise of the tournament. It's a team that can move mountains in spite of the uncertainty at fly-half. In fact that may be an asset as they will be all the harder to read. They should top their pool and then gobble up Wales in the quarter-final.

They are also one of the few sides who can actually trouble New Zealand - they have shown the way to do it in the Tri-Nations - with massive physical commitment and a defence that comes up rapidly to limit the space their backs have to work in. Even so, I think New Zealand will shade it.

They could then meet the winners of a semi-final between France and Australia. Les Bleus have a good record on home soil against the Wallabies and if they do get there they will do so on a tide of euphoria, with a level of public support that is beyond most outsiders' imaginations. Remember football's World Cup 98 and Euro 2000?

At this point, the Castaignède crystal ball suddenly becomes a little blurred. Presumably, being French, it's got up to its 35 hours for the week and has stopped work. There seems to be some kind of a blue mist in there though so I can still hope for the best.