This article is part of the Guardian’s Euro 2016 Experts’ Network, a cooperation between some of the best media organisations from the countries who have qualified for France. theguardian.com is running previews from three countries each day in the run-up to the tournament kicking off on 10 June.
The enforced absence of Karim Benzema, deemed persona non grata for his alleged role in the “sextape” scandal, and the sad disappearance of Mathieu Valbuena, the only true victim of the affair, mean that Didier Deschamps has been obliged to do what many hoped he would do to start with: put his trust in youth, particularly up front. It would not be surprising to see Anthony Martial, Antoine Griezmann and Kingsley Coman all feature together during the competition, even if one of André-Pierre Gignac or Olivier Giroud will almost certainly be picked to fill the centre-forward position.
France have mainly relied on a fluid, counter-attacking 4-3-3 formation for the last 18 months (nine games out the 12 played since 1 January 2015) and are unlikely to revert to the 4-2-3-1 and 4-4-2 diamond which Deschamps experimented with in 2015 against Albania (an unmitigated disaster) and Portugal (with Paul Pogba as a No10, not the most convincing of 1-0 wins).
This 4-3-3 set-up plays to France’s undoubted strengths, which are primarily the most dynamic midfield in Europe (Pogba, Lassana Diarra, plus either N’Golo Kanté or Blaise Matuidi) and a frightening combination of pace and technique on the flanks, around a lone, physically imposing striker. Seen this way, it is hard to see who could resist a French team playing in front of its public. They did not do too badly on the last two occasions they were the hosts of a major competition, did they?
Deschamps’ problems lie elsewhere, namely in a back four which – with Kurt Zouma, Raphaël Varane and Jérémy Mathieu injured and Mamadou Sakho not picked because of his initial doping suspension – will miss the presence of a true stopper to play alongside Laurent Koscielny in central defence.
The Arsenal defender is now likely to be partnered by Manchester City’s Eliaquim Mangala with Adil Rami the back-up. Patrice Evra (35 years old) and Bacary Sagna (33) are bound to be their manager’s first choices at full-backs, which says a lot about the lack of alternatives in those positions. Christophe Jallet? Lucas Digne? No, I don’t think so.
France scored nine goals in their last four games before the proper Euro preparations began, but also conceded six, even though Deschamps had selected what looked like his strongest combination of defenders on each occasion. A prudent man by nature and upbringing, Eric Cantona’s “water carrier” might have to espouse a far more daring approach as a manager than what he showed as a player. He can do it, as he proved when he took Monaco to a Champions League final in 2004; and he might get there in the end. But there will be bumps along the way.
Probable starting XI
Which France player is going to surprise everyone at the Euro 2016?
This could be N’Golo Kanté’s tournament, provided that Deschamps, a very loyal manager, is willing to leave Blaise Matuidi (who had an underwhelming season) on the bench. Given a chance, the Leicester midfielder could energise the French midfield, tackle and intercept to the extent that France’s defensive frailties would go – almost – unnoticed. This is said more in hope than expectation.
Which player could be a disappointment?
An awful lot is expected of Paul Pogba, “La Pioche” (The Digger). But then, an awful lot has been expected of him for a while and, regardless of what his fans say, we are still waiting for the games to match the flamboyant haircuts and tuxedos. Pogba is a prodigious talent, but his penchant for hogging the ball, trying to dribble past too many opponents, tying himself in self-made knots, being all things to all people on the pitch, will have to be channelled in a more efficient manner for that talent to blossom properly. This is far from guaranteed.
What is the realistic aim for France at Euro 2016 and why?
Anything but a third Euro final (after 1984 and 2000) would be a disappointment. The draw has been kind to the hosts, while the traditional European powerhouses appear to be going through, at best, a transitional phase. But the French squad still seems well short of its 1984 and 2000 predecessors in terms of quality; short of what it takes to raise the trophy in my view.
• Philippe Auclair writes for France Football.
Click here for a profile of France’s André-Pierre Gignac.
