Many claim the North Sydney Bears are cursed. Australian Rugby League Commission chair Peter V’landys now has good reason to believe them. An NRL expansion bid by North Sydney’s Perth-based “franken-club” the Western Bears to join the NRL ultimately failed to impress the rugby league tsar, who now faces a race against time to prove to broadcasters his code is worth as much – or more – than the AFL.

It was an astonishing development in a process that until now seemed pre-ordained. A timeline towards 20 clubs within the next five-year broadcast cycle appeared straightforward, with as many as 11 parties reportedly interested from everywhere between Perth and Christchurch.

But nobody, not even “Saint Peter” himself, wields more power than the clubs. The ARLC must convince three quarters of them of the merits of the expansion proposal. The Bears may have cut-through with nostalgic New South Wales rugby league fans, but officials in clubland have no such attachment. Rather, they might generously be described as pragmatic.

The Bears’ submission failed to include the offer to the NRL of a licence fee – a sugar hit which could help the NRL placate the clubs – prompting V’landys to declare the business case didn’t stack up. The bid instead combines Perth corporate and government support and the knowhow and infrastructure of the North Sydney club (which still plays in the second-division NSW Cup).

The Western Bears bid is now “on life support” according to consortium member Peter Cumins, the Cash Converters executive deputy chairman, who refuses to write the NRL a blank cheque. “We’ve got to be very conscious of the fact that if there is a [licence] fee to be paid and it’s significant, we’ve got to make sure we can honour the commitment that we make.” The Bears can point to the example of the Dolphins, which were not required to pay a licence fee when they joined the NRL two years ago.

Federal member for Bradfield in Sydney’s northern suburbs, Paul Fletcher, this week told the NRL in parliament to “get on with it” and don’t use “vaguely described financial considerations” to block the Bears’ return to the elite level.

Western Australian premier Roger Cook is part of the push for the Western Bears. “We continue to discuss aspects of the bid process,” Cook said, confirming that he had exchanged text messages with V’landys since the decision. “Obviously, the bids went in. I think ours was the strongest. But we need to address some of the issues the board had concerning that bid,” he said.

Rugby league in Australia is in a healthy state, with clubs seemingly free of financial turmoil and the NRL reporting a $58m operating surplus on revenue of more than $700m in 2023. Yet health in Australian sport is a relative thing.

The AFL signed a $4.5 billion with Channel Seven and Foxtel in 2022 which kicks in next season. At around $640m per season, it far surpasses the NRL’s current arrangement which is estimated a little over $400m annually, even though the NRL outperforms AFL on a range of ratings metrics.

Although the NRL’s current TV deal runs until 2027, V’landys and chief executive Andrew Abdo will soon ramp up discussions with broadcasters. In an increasingly challenging commercial TV landscape, the NRL’s most straightforward path for a broadcast bump is through increasing its volume of content. Adding one more team would allow nine NRL games each weekend, and if Perth was included it would open up another option for an evening match broadcast on the east coast.

But more games might not be best for the product. The Rugby League Players Association has resisted any increase to the length of the season, and the effort to tack on internationals in spring is already forcing the game’s best players to play more than 30 matches each year. At the NRLW launch this season, Abdo said expansion would allow flexibility in scheduling and potentially even a reduction in rounds.

The by-product of this week’s drama is the transformation of the Papua New Guinea bid. What was once risky is now the closest thing V’landys has to a sure thing. The proposal includes a $600m, ten-year commitment from the federal government, including – significantly – a $60m license fee that will be shared among the clubs. $29m each year will be budgeted for the football team, and another $25m per year will go towards programs jointly run by the NRL and the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade designed to improve education and living standards in the region.

The PNG government has committed to building the club’s accommodation and training base and providing income tax exemptions worth several million dollars per year to make living in Port Moresby more attractive to players.

“There are a few more regulatory processes to complete before an official announcement can be made,” Prime Minister James Marape said this week, ahead of Sunday’s Prime Minister’s XIII exhibition matches. “As PNG approaches our 50th next year, it will be a good golden jubilee gift.” An announcement on NRL expansion is expected by the end of November.