83 min: Arsenal keep the ball awhile and quieten the crowd. No big late push from Everton as of yet.

81 min: Sky have just flashed up a fascinating stat: four of the ten goals Arsenal have conceded so far this season have come after the 81-minute mark. That’s a 40 percent rate, and it’s the highest in the division. The next cabs on the rank are Newcastle (36%), Brentford (32%) and Nottingham Forest (28%). So let’s see how this pans out.

80 min: Martinelli comes on for Trossard. “I suspect most people reading this MBM would agree with the ‘making things up as they go along’ line (58 minutes),” begins Rob Knap. “Even the normally measured Eddie Howe lost it today. Unai Emery has almost spun himself into the ground in frustration this season. Meanwhile, tonight, David Moyes’s famed spin-cycle eyes whirred into action after that non-pen. You also feel Mikel Arteta’s one bad VAR decision away from his sad, Teddy-bear eyes just bursting into tears. Won’t somebody think of the managers!”

78 min: Tarkowski goes long. Beto competes for a header but doesn’t win one. Raya claims. “Seeing Dominic Calvert-Lewin tear it up for the Damned United, as an Everton supporter, is like wishing the best for a romantic ex,” begins Eric Peterson. “The sentiment truly is genuine and heartfelt, but make no mistake, there is a virulent undercurrent, deep down, of: WHYYYYY?? WHY NOT US?!?!”

76 min: Everton roll the dice, replacing McNeil and Alcaraz with Dibling and Rohl.

74 min: Saka dribbles hard down the right, enters the box and shoots. Keane blocks, then the ball rebounds off the Arsenal winger and out for a goal kick. For all Arsenal’s recent pressure, they haven’t found the second goal that would make their life a hell of a lot easier. And business time’s a-comin’.

73 min: Arsenal have done extremely well to slow down Everton’s earlier second-half momentum. They’re very much back on top now.

71 min: Arsenal ping it down the inside-right channel again. Odegaard slips the ball into the box, but this time the move ends in farce as Saka and Timber run into each other, both men’s eyes lighting up at the sight of a good chance, six yards out. Goal kick.

69 min: Arsenal hit the right-hand post again! This time it’s Zubimendi, drilling a low shot off the base of it, having met a cutback from Odegaard on the right. That was another fine Arsenal move, who are putting it all together right now. Just a set-piece team? I don’t think so.

67 min: Grealish accidentally stands on Saka’s foot as he takes off on a run. He didn’t know his England team-mate was behind him. But that’ll hurt, and Pickford comes across to check on [cuts, pastes] his England team-mate. Happily Saka is back up and about soon enough.

66 min: … and then Beto replaces Barry. “Broadly I’m in favour of VAR,” writes Joshua Keeling. Some much-needed balance in this debate, yes? Nope! “But how on earth was that not given as a penalty? It’s a stonewall penalty. Everton have been hard done by there.”

65 min: Both teams make their first change of the evening. Jesus comes on for Gyokeres …

64 min: Arsenal nearly score one of the goals of the season. Odegaard and Saka combine down the right. The ball’s shuttled infield to Rice, who takes it to the edge of the box and rolls it further left to Trossard. The winger opens his body and curls a powerful shot across Pickford … and off the meat of the right-hand post and away! So close to a magnificent team move.

62 min: Leeds are running away with it at Elland Road. They’re now 3-0 up on Crystal Palace, Ethan Ampadu scoring his first-ever top-flight goal on the hour.

60 min: The wind’s behind Everton at the moment, though. And the steam is coming out of David Moyes’s lugs, because Hincapie hauls back Barry but doesn’t go into the book. Meanwhile in other unhappiness news, here’s Dwight Moe: “So, the referee didn’t see a jumping player handle the ball with both hands above everybody’s head. Tell me again how refs aren’t waiting for VAR to make calls. PGMOL is unfit for purpose.” Preach on, brother.

58 min: VAR absolves Saliba of blame, despite the defender clearly kicking the underside of Barry’s boot. Referee’s call, basically, and not clear and obvious enough an error to overturn. Ah, who can say? To belabour an oft-repeated observation: nobody knows anything any more, everyone’s just making things up as they go along.

57 min: Alcarez flashes a shot wide right of goal. But seconds before that, Saliba, high-kicking alongside Barry, caught his opponent’s foot. And VAR is going to take a look at a possible spot kick!

56 min: Gyokeres is yellow-carded for delaying a restart by toe-poking the ball away from Pickford. Meanwhile here’s Niall Fogarty on the aforementioned Leeds scoring sensation Dominic Calvert-Lewin: “To set the record straight, Everton didn’t want him to leave.”

54 min: Grealish dribbles hard down the left only to lose control and run the ball out for a goal kick. Meanwhile replays of that Barry incident from another angle suggest there might have been some contact between Zubimendi and the Everton striker … though it was outside the box, so VAR couldn’t get involved. Either way, not a penalty. But yes, the crowd is up now.

52 min: Barry embarks on a gangly run down the inside-left channel. He goes over, right on the edge of the box, with Zubimendi directly behind him. For a second, it looks like the ref’s pointed to the penalty spot, but turns out he’s asking Barry to get back up. Replays show very little contact, if any, and Barry tangling his own legs up. Still, that’s got the crowd going.

51 min: Timber, down the right, cuts back for Saka, whose low drive is kicked away by Pickford.

50 min: Gyokeres powers his way down the left and nearly barges his way past all of Tarkowski, Keane and Mykolenko, converging all at once. The ball squeaks through to Pickford, just before the striker can shoot, six yards out. Gyokeres should never have been allowed to advance so far.

48 min: Tarkowski swings a cross in from the right. Barry competes for a header, but can only divert the ball gently up and into the arms of Raya. Still, this is better from Everton, though the bar was set so low in the first half as to be almost subterranean.

47 min: There were no half-time changes, by the way. “Jake O’Brien’s moment of madness might be more a case of muscle memory,” argues Justin Kavanagh. “He used to play hurling in Cork in his early days. I remember another ex-GAA player, Kevin Moran, having a similar lapse at Old Trafford years ago as he reached up to grab a high ball. You can take the boy out of Ireland, etc.”

46 min: O’Brien throws long from the right. Iroegbunam, from the middle of a penalty-box muddle, has a dig. He claims the ball hits Timber on the arm, but he’s not getting the spot kick he wants. But there’s a shot by Everton at last, and their xG has whistled all the way up to 0.11.

Everton get the second half started … and the scoreline’s pretty much as expected, because here’s the xG after the first half: Everton 0, Arsenal 1.04. No shots, no crosses completed, two touches in the opposition box; to say Everton need to take it up a notch is an understatement.

Half-time entertainment.

HALF TIME at Elland Road: Leeds United 2-0 Crystal Palace. You’ll notice there’s been another goal. And who scored it, on the very stroke of half-time? It’s that man again! Tommy Handley! Dominic Calvert-Lewin! His header makes it six goals in four-and-a-half games in the Premier League for Leeds, and what toothless Everton would do right now to take this current version of their old occasionally misfiring striker back.

45 min +5: Alcaraz ships possession cheaply, allowing Arsenal to counter with numbers. Odegaard releases Gyokeres down the right. Gyokeres dinks a cross to the far stick, where Saka heads harmlessly wide left. Everton, light at the back, get away with one.

45 min +4: Garner shimmies his way down the left but his cross, hung up gently, is easy pickings for Raya.

45 min +3: Calafiori is back on.

45 min +2: Calafiori is thankfully back up and on his feet, able to continue. But he wanders off to go through the concussion protocols. In the meantime, the game will continue, and this half will now go on longer than the four additional minutes previously advertised.

45 min: Calafiori leaps high to challenge for a ball with Barry, and accidentally lands flat on his back. Ow. That’ll have winded him. And he might have banged his head as well. Play is immediately stopped and on comes the physio.

44 min: Saliba rolls a pass down the inside-right channel for Gyokeres, who can’t spin his way around and past Tarkowski. The defender holds his line well, ensuring Gyokeres can’t get a shot on goal. The ball sails harmlessly out for a goal kick. That’s fine play by Tarkowski, with Everton looking momentarily in trouble.

43 min: Arsenal continue to ping it around. David Moyes will be desperate to get his men in for the half-time break without further damage. Then, time for a wee chat.

41 min: Back at the Hill Dickinson, Calvert-Lewin’s old pals can hardly get a touch. Saka rolls the ball across the face of their penalty box, from right to left, to tee up Rice for a shot. Rice sends a poor curler, intended for the top right, deep into the stand behind.

40 min: In tonight’s other Premier League game, Dominic Calvert-Lewin has just given Leeds the lead against Crystal Palace. He’s now found the net in five consecutive matches. A penny for the thoughts of Everton fans right now.

39 min: Tarkowski, no stranger to an agricultural challenge, comes clattering into the back of Gyokeres. Into the book he goes.

37 min: Arsenal have enjoyed 70 percent of possession since the goal. Everton, who started so promisingly, have totally retreated into their shell.

35 min: Odegaard wedges a cute pass down the inside-left channel and nearly finds Trossard, racing into the box. Trossard extends a leg, but can’t connect, because O’Brien does enough to deflect the ball away from him and into the arms of Pickford. Meanwhile here’s Kári Tulinius, on hand to calmly mop the brows of our fretting Arsenal brethren: “I think Arsenal look like a more balanced team than Manchester City, who are jittery every time a team runs at them. If the Sky Blues do win the league, that’ll be their 7th title in a decade. If a wonky City can triumph just because of individual talent, that’ll speak poorly of the rest of the league.”

33 min: Everton haven’t achieved anything since the gut-punch of the Arsenal goal, and their fans groan a little at a pointless punt that ends up in Raya’s possession.

31 min: The goal’s also taken quite a bit of wind out of the home supporters’ sail. Meanwhile here’s Simon McMahon, in the mood to cause trouble: “I’ve been permanently drunk laughing my head off over the past fortnight listening to my Celtic supporting friends losing their shit over the fact that they might not win anything this season. Apparently 13 league titles and umpteen trebles in the last 14 seasons just doesn’t cut it in the east end of Glasgow. I know Arsenal haven’t won the league in a while, having to make do with just the five FA Cups and Community Shields, plus a Champions League final, so it can’t be easy for them either. Thoughts and prayers etc. to all long suffering Celtic and Arsenal fans. Merry Christmas!”

29 min: That was a hell of a spot kick considering it was taken by a player out of form and not exactly brimming with confidence. And it’s a boost for a team who had started this game in uncharacteristically uncertain fashion. Everton had been the better side until that rush of blood to the noggin from O’Brien.

26 min: O’Brien has the chutzpah to look confused at the decision, but both hands went up to flick the ball away from Calafiori. There won’t be a more obvious penalty all season. Mykolenko argues the toss nonetheless, and goes into the book.

24 min: O’Brien put hands on, but not strongly enough for a penalty. No matter, though, because when the resulting corner comes in from the left, O’Brien goes up with Calafiori at the far stick. Both hands are in the air, and the ball flicks off his fingers. No whistle, but this will surely be a penalty once VAR gets involved again.

22 min: Ah no, to be fair, they press on the gas again, Saka slipping Timber into space down the right. Timber’s cross balloons up and off Mykolenko, arcing towards the far post. Gyokeres wants to head home from close range, but can’t connect, and claims he’s been nudged out of the way unfairly by O’Brien. VAR to take a look.

21 min: … so having suggested that, Arsenal slow it right down again. Pulitzer, please!

20 min: Odegaard swings one in from the right. Gyokeres flashes a harmless header well wide of the left-hand post. But ever so slowly, and after a cold start, Arsenal are shifting up a gear or two.

19 min: … though this is better, as Saka makes it to the byline on the left, and cuts back. Keane only half clears, allowing Zubimendi to take Arsenal’s first shot in anger. The ball sails miles over the bar.

18 min: Trossard jigs down the left but can’t get the better of O’Brien. Arsenal simply haven’t got going yet, and this start clearly hasn’t helped the mood of their more nervous fans. Here’s Chris N: “I envisage a gritty draw here, followed by an inexorable and totally predictable set of stumbles by Arsenal. City take it on the last day.”

16 min: … and yet on the whole, he’ll be pretty happy with the way his team have started this game. They’re having the better of it.

14 min: … it’s woefully overhit by McNeil, a curler positively blootered deep into the stand behind the goal. On the touchline, a clearly unimpressed David Moyes channels the collected writing of Irvine Welsh into interpretive dance.

13 min: Garner sends the corner long. Raya comes off his line and flaps. Hincapie digs him out of trouble with a clearing header at the far stick. But it’s at the expense of a throw, which O’Brien launches long from the right. Barry and Tarkowski hover, and force Timber into conceding another corner. This one will come in from the right, and …

12 min: A speculative pass down the Everton left, coupled with Barry’s presence, forces Saliba into the concession of the game’s first corner. Garner to take.

11 min: Both teams take turns to probe gingerly. There’s not a great deal going on right now. Arsenal being favourites, Everton will be the happier.

9 min: Calafiori and Hincapie make a meal of dealing with a simple long ball, momentarily threatening to give McNeil, buzzing around, a sniff. But eventually they combine to head clear then hoof. This game’s not quite taken off. Plenty of time yet.

7 min: Arsenal with the crowd-quietening possession again. Eventually Saka tries to make ground on the right, but Grealish is on point to close down the route to the Everton box.

5 min: Arsenal settle the crowd down a little bit with some sterile domination around the centre circle. Some early authority established? Not quite, because after a couple of minutes of it, Everton nick the ball and Grealish tries to set Mykolenko away down the left. He overhits the pass. Goal kick.

3 min: Gyokeres picks up possession on the centre line and tries to round Keane, hoping to instigate a footrace. Clank! No way past. He goes over, demanding a free kick. He’s not getting one. Meanwhile here’s another, slightly less jittery, Arsenal fan in David Penney: “The only thing that gives me a small amount of confidence is that we have done most of the ‘hard’ away games now. I still expect every away game to be hard though.”

2 min: Everton are on the front foot immediately. Alcaraz has a look down the left but is forced to turn tail. Never mind, there’s still one heck of an atmosphere tonight on the banks of the Mersey, pre-festive cheer, Saturday night, da nee na na na, be my baby, etc.

Here we go, then! Arsenal get the ball rolling at the Hill Dickinson. “Good evening Scott.” Good evening Jones Manoah from Nairobi. “It’s too early for it to be ‘squeaky bum time’, but with scar tissue we Gooners have accumulated over the past three seasons, it sure feels that way. Hoping for the best for my beloved Gunners, but I can’t help feeling all queasy as Man City with the goal bot come breathing down our necks.”

The teams are out. Everton wear their royal blue, while Arsenal are also in their first-choice robes, theirs of red and white. We’ll be off in a couple of minutes!

David Moyes speaks to Sky Sports. “Dwight McNeil is a really important player … he gets a good opportunity tonight … it’s not our plan to [play in a low block] … sometimes Arsenal play so well they force people into a low block! … every team has to do it when the opposition are in charge of the ball … hopefully we can be in charge of the ball … give them a really tough game.”

Mikel Arteta talks to Sky too: “We have been able to be together [this week] … to train more times … it’s been a really, really positive week … you come here you do the basics very well … they will try to drag you to a certain game and we want a different game … we have to master those things to give ourselves the best chance to win.”

Pre-match postbag. Just the one email for all y’all, but it’s the usual high-quality fare from the MBM’s resident Gunner, Charles Antaki: “Yes, all right; it can be admitted by Arsenal fans: the Fear is back. But this is the exact, the precise time for a transformation scene: for Victor Gyökeres to burst out of the back end of the pantomime cow, throw off his rags and stride the stage like a triumphant Principal Boy. Does he know it’s Christmastime?”

The 5.30pm kick-off has just finished, and Liverpool have won 2-1 at nine-man Tottenham Hotspur. They didn’t half make a meal of it, though, and it very nearly became Elland Road v2.0. Barry Glendenning has the details. That puts Liverpool up to fifth, for at least a couple of hours, though Crystal Palace can leapfrog them if they beat Leeds United at Elland Road in tonight’s other 8pm game. As for the teams we’re concentrating on here, Arsenal can of course reclaim top spot with a victory, while Everton can make it up to sixth if they win big, though that’d depend on what Palace get up to.

Everton make three changes to their starting XI following the 2-0 defeat at Chelsea, and all of them are enforced. Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall is injured, while Idrissa Gueye and Iliman Ndiaye are away at Afcon. In come Tim Iroegbunam, Dwight McNeil and Charly Alcaraz.

Arsenal also make three changes, after their 2-1 home win over Wolverhampton Wanderers. Martin Ødegaard, Leandro Trossard and Riccardo Calafiori come in for Eberechi Eze and Gabriel Martinelli, who drop to the bench, and the injured Ben White.