Second set: Sabalenka 4-6, 1-0 Rybakina* (*next server)

Rybakina is such a formidable frontrunner, and has won her past 23 matches after taking the opening set. But Sabalenka will no doubt remember that she lost the first set 6-4 in their 2023 Australian Open final – before coming back to win in three. There’s some intense tactical debate between Rybakina and her coach between sets – Sabalenka meanwhile takes herself off court for a few minutes to regroup – and returns for a no-nonsense hold to 15. A far more assured start from Sabalenka in this second set than she managed in the first.

First set: Sabalenka 4-5 Rybakina* (*next server)

Vukov is now a constant hum of instructions from the courtside box, but it doesn’t distract Sabalenka, as she smoothly advances to 40-0. But an outrageous return from Rybakina followed by a deft drop shot and it’s 40-15. I thought it would be Sabalenka drop shotting tonight, as well as coming to the net … but despite having added more variety to her game of late, she’s been a bit too rooted to the baseline. This is a bit more like early career Sabalenka, who wanted to just hit everything as hard as she could. But no doubt the strength of Rybakina’s groundstrokes is making it hard for Sabalenka to mix things up. Sabalenka holds to 15 – but Rybakina will serve for the set.

First set: Sabalenka* 3-5 Rybakina (*next server)

Vukov has some words for Rybakina at 15-all. It doesn’t work, because soon Sabalenka is swatting away a forehand winner for 15-30 … Rybakina’s first-serve percentage is down at about 40% now. She can’t land a first serve here either, but does her second … she’s dictating the point … unwinds with a backhand down the line … but it whistles wide! 15-40, two break-back points. Rybakina finds a first serve when it matters, and it’s an ace. And the second BP goes by in the blink of an eye too. And Rybakina rips through from deuce to hold! Some superb serving gets herself out of trouble.

First set: Sabalenka 3-4 Rybakina* (*next server)

At 30-0, Sabalenka can’t move her feet quickly enough and she stabs into the net. But Rybakina then engages in a bit of net-bashing herself. 40-15, and for Sabalenka’s second successive service game she sends down an ace – this one down the T – to settle matters. Since being broken in the opening game, the world No 1 has conceded only two points on serve. But she’ll have to break soon if she’s to extend this set …

First set: Sabalenka* 2-4 Rybakina (*next server)

Rybakina hasn’t quite hit the heights yet on her first serve, but is doing a good job behind her second, and that gets her to 15-0. The longest rally of the final on the next point … and eventually Rybakina raises the stakes with a vicious cross-court forehand that sets up the inside-out winner! 30-0. Sabalenka is now spinning and sliding and doing all she can to get the ball back … she does … but Rybakina, as is her wont, smacks it away. 40-0. Sabalenka shakes off some of her frustrations with a backhand winner down the line and Rybakina then balloons beyond the baseline… but Sabalenka can make no further inroads as Rybakina holds to 30.

First set: Sabalenka 2-3 Rybakina* (*next server)

This is Sabalenka’s seventh consecutive grand slam final on hard courts – she’s the third woman after Steffi Graf and Martina Hingis to do that in the open era. And this is also her fourth straight Australian open final – something matched only by Hingis. And Sabalenka looks more like the player who has accumulated those numbers as she secures her first hold to love, drawing three backhand errors from Rybakina and finishing things off with an ace.

First set: Sabalenka* 1-3 Rybakina (*next server)

A first double fault from Rybakina hands Sabalenka a 0-15 start. Rybakina’s coach, Stefano Vukov, has some words of encouragement from the sidelines. Rybakina’s return to form, by the way, has coincided with his suspension being lifted last summer after he was banned by the WTA because of alleged verbal abuse towards her. Rybakina, from 0-15, routinely rattles off the next four points to hold. And Sabalenka, never one to be outdone, looks rather annoyed at the fact she’s been second-best so far.

First set: Sabalenka 1-2 Rybakina* (*next server)

Sabalenka shows courage under early fire to work her way to 40-15 on serve … before making a mess of her backhand. No bother; an ace seals the game. She’s on the board. And here’s Gregory Phillips: “Anagram based predictions suggest this match could be an “easy banana lark” for Sabalenka.” It’s more of a banana skin right now, I’d say.

First set: Sabalenka* 0-2 Rybakina (*next server)

Rybakina, with her effortless power and movement, calmly glides to 15-0, 30-0, 40-0 and game to back up the break. Sabalenka, in contrast, looks panicked by her opponent’s start. And some obligatory fashion notes: Sabalenka is once again in her pink, peach and black dayglo dress, which she has described as “surf inspired” and makes her look as if she should be an extra on Venice Beach in the Barbie movie. Rybakina is in a slightly more understated pale yellow dress, with a splash of blue.

Rybakina breaks: Sabalenka 0-1 Rybakina* (*next server)

Ready? Let’s play. Sabalenka, playing her fifth final out of the past six grand slams, settles in early with two short, sharp points for 30-0. But Rybakina reads Sabalenka’s next serve and rams a cross-court forehand return winner. Wow. That was an early reminder of her power, as if we needed one. Then at 30-all, Rybakina fires a forehand return down the line! Sabalenka, smartly, serves to Rybakina’s backhand on the break point, and the Russian-born Kazakhstani can’t get the ball back in to play. Sabalenka strikes long at deuce, and Rybakina has a second break point. Sabalenka goes for broke with an inside-out forehand but blazes it into the tramlines to surrender serve already! She hit nearly 90% of her first serves in the game – but it still wasn’t enough.

Laura Robson, meanwhile, on TNT Sports says she’s 50-50 and declares as the main presenter she’s allowed to sit on the fence. Coco Vandeweghe says she was going to back Sabalenka, but the fact the roof is closed may help Rybakina, but in the end she opts for Sabalenka in three anyway. Tim Henman is backing Rybakina.

So who wins? Sabalenka’s record in Australia, plus her greater consistency as the world No 1, makes her the favourite, but just as Rybakina won’t be fazed by Sabalenka’s power, nor will she be by the Belarusian’s stats. She knows she can beat her, having done so in six of their 14 meetings, and knows that she can win a slam, having done so at Wimbledon four years ago. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if this goes the distance … but Sabalenka has the slight edge.

Tik, tok, tik, tok, the players warming up, so we’ve got time to talk tactics. There won’t be too many surprises here; as two of the biggest servers and ball-strikers on tour, both will want to be the one bossing the points and won’t be at all intimidated by the power coming at them. But Sabalenka’s game has evolved to show more variety, and throwing in plenty of drop shots today would be a smart approach, given Rybakina doesn’t move quite as well as her. Rybakina will have to serve better than she did in her semi-final; if she misses too many first serves again Sabalenka will surely take advantage.

The first victory is Sabalenka’s: the world No 1 wins the toss and doesn’t even hesitate in opting to serve first. A message of intent from the off.

Here the players come, navigating their way through the backstage tunnel, which has been souped-up this year and is more like a discombobulating hall of mirrors. They pass the pre-match test by finding their way through and emerging unscathed. Actually, Sabalenka doesn’t only emerge unscathed, she absolutely strided through. She looks in the zone already.

The roof on Rod Laver Arena is closed because of rain. Rybakina’s face hardly ever betrays any emotions, but she’s likely to be happy, because she won their most recent meeting indoors, at the WTA Finals in November for her biggest title since Wimbledon in 2022.

If you’d like to get in touch with any predictions and musings you can do so here. It’s always good to get the chat going.

And this from Krishna Moorthy: “Unlike you I am yet to have any breakfast and just a coffee that triggered my brain to do some anagrams and Elena Rybakina turned into “Break Any Alien”. If aliens do not stand a chance I can safely assume that Aryna does not either. Predicting this AO has been pretty risky (Alcaraz pulling off a miracle, Djoker getting a walkover and then performing his favourite Houdini act...) and an anagram is as good as any measured guess.”

“Hi Katy, hope you’ve recovered from yesterday’s Shakespearean epics, full of plot twists and turns,” emails Jeremy Boyce. “If today’s final lives up to the level and drama of those matches the crowd will be in for a treat. And possibly wishing that the women played five sets too. No pressure then. Whatever the outcome let’s hope neither of the combatants ends up feeling like an animal in the zoo and that any racket smashing is tolerated in the same way as grunting and other expressions of passion and effort.”

Rybakina says:

Last match we played here [in the 2023 final], it was very close. Throughout the match I had some little opportunities, but in the end of this third set, Aryna stepped in. She deserved that win.

Of course many years passed, a lot of matches has been played. Hopefully with all the experience which I got from this last match, last time final I played here, I can bring it to Saturday’s match and do my best, focus on my serve, of course. Since we are both very aggressive players, serve is important. Hopefully this time it’s gonna go my way.

Sabalenka says:

Her shots are heavy, deep, flat balls. It’s not easy to work with, but we have a great history. She’s incredible player. We had a lot of great battles, a lot of finals we played. I’m looking forward to [battling] this power.

Rybakina
First round def Kaja Juvan 6-4, 6-3
Second round def Varvara Gracheva 7-5, 6-2
Third round def Tereza Valentova 6-2, 6-3
Fourth round def Elise Mertens (21) 6-1, 6-3
Quarter-final def Iga Swiatek (2) 7-5, 6-1
Semi-final def Jessica Pegula (6) 6-3, 7-6

Sabalenka
First round def Tiantsoa Rakotomanga Rajaonah 6-4, 6-1
Second round def Bai Zhuoxuan 6-3, 6-1
Third round def Anastasia Potapova 7-6, 7-6
Fourth round def Victoria Mboko (17) 6-1, 7-6
Quarter-final def Iva Jovic (29) 6-3, 6-0
Semi-final def Elina Svitolina (12) 6-2, 6-3

Road to the final. Both have generated dangerous momentum as the tournament has progressed and are yet to drop a set. Sabalenka turned into something of a teen hunter to halt the breakthrough runs of Victoria Mboko and Iva Jovic, before brutally ending the 31-year-old Elina Svitolina’s hopes of a first slam title in the last four. But while Sabalenka’s level has been eye-catching, Rybakina has had the tougher route to this final, and has defeated two top-six players in Iga Swiatek and Jessica Pegula. And when Rybakina gets on a roll, it’s very hard to stop her.

Tale of the tape
Sabalenka – Rybakina
27 Age 26
1 Seeding 5
1 World ranking 5
4 Grand slam titles 1
8 Grand slam finals 3
22 Singles titles 11
8 Head-to-head 6

And a lovely gallery of the best images from week two as well:

Already today, Britain’s Neal Skupski and his American partner Christian Harrison have claimed the men’s doubles title in their first slam together. Skupski – who also triumphed at Wimbledon in 2023 – and Harrison beat the Australians Jason Kubler and Marc Polmans 7-6, 6-4. It continues Britain’s recent advances in men’s doubles – it’s the third time in the past five majors that one British player has triumphed in the event and there are no less than five players currently in the world’s top 10 – and we can only hope that some of that success will extend into the singles in the future too. Having Jack Draper back fit and healthy would help; he could return after five months out injured in Britain’s Davis Cup tie against Norway next week.