On the face of it the Champions Cup has been helpful for the majority of Six Nations head coaches before this year’s championship. Gregor Townsend, for example, would dearly love Scotland to play with the purpose and passion currently oozing from Glasgow and will doubtless wish to ensure his national side exhibit similar characteristics.
Ditto France. If Fabien Galthié overlooks the electric form of Matthieu Jalibert, particularly with Romain Ntamack out injured for the next few weeks, his trademark thick-rimmed glasses must have misted up. There can be no rational reason not to bury la hachette with the Bordeaux fly-half and invite him to combine as brilliantly with Louis Bielle-Biarrey and Damian Penaud as the trio do at club level.
Even Wales should have been cautiously encouraged by the efforts, albeit in defeat, of the Scarlets at Northampton on Sunday. And while Ireland have injury problems to deal with before Wednesday’s squad announcement, at least Leinster have had back-to-back wins over Top 14 opposition as their opening Six Nations date with France in Paris looms on 5 February.
Which brings us to England, who will reveal their Six Nations hand this Friday, Again, on the surface, the Champions Cup has helped in some respects. Seven English sides have qualified for the last 16 with two more advancing in the Challenge Cup. Only Gloucester, who don’t have a stack of England squad regulars anyway, have failed to make the knockout cut.
Dig a little bit deeper, though, and there are mixed messages. Saracens may have seen off Toulouse in the wind and rain of north London but a side studded with England internationals were then unceremoniously thumped at Scotstoun on Sunday. Northampton shipped 50 points in Bordeaux last week while a weakened Sale’s 77-7 loss in Toulouse showcased the enduring class of Antoine Dupont and his lieutenants.
Admittedly Quins had a great result in La Rochelle with Marcus Smith to the fore but in many ways that just muddied the Twickenham waters. And, while Bath have stormed into the last 16, their most effective England-qualified forward of recent weeks – Alfie Barbeary – has yet to convince the national head coach, Steve Borthwick, he is a stronger bet than, say, Exeter’s Greg Fisilau or Leicester’s Emeka Ilione.
Ironically enough the other Bath player who looked a potential world-beater on Friday night against Edinburgh was Joe Cokanasiga, who looks as fit and penetrative as he has done in a while. With Borthwick’s preference for aerial prowess, however, there are several other spring-heeled contenders ahead of Big Joe in that specific category.
Which just serves to underline how tricky this national squad selection lark can be. Because it simply won’t matter who England pick at No 8 or behind the scrum if they run out of fit props and can’t win any front-foot ball. With Will Stuart and Asher Opoku-Fordjour out for months and Fin Baxter set to miss the opening round at least, Borthwick will be wary of losing any more big beasts over the next fortnight.
It leaves Joe Heyes, Trevor Davison and either Vilikesa Sela or Afolabi Fasogbon, 20 and 21 respectively, to anchor the tight-head with Ellis Genge, Beno Obano and Bevan Rodd as loose-head options. Despite Borthwick’s fondness for bench impact, there may have to be an acceptance that other avenues will now need exploring.
Borthwick certainly does not lack options. Anyone who was at the Rec on Friday night, for example, will have left convinced Max Ojomoh has the range of skills to be a top-drawer international centre. Which is tough on the unselfish Fraser Dingwall, who scored in the November win over the All Blacks, and Gloucester’s Seb Atkinson, both of whom have performed well in the England 12 jersey within the last nine months.
If Dingwall doesn’t start, too, it makes it slightly harder to pick his Saints team-mate Tommy Freeman at 13, at least for now. Which in turn means Freeman on one wing, Manny Feyi-Waboso on the other and one less vacancy for the plethora of other wingers – the latterly sidelined Tom Roebuck, Henry Arundell, Adam Radwan, Noah Caluori, Ollie Sleightholme, Cadan Murley, Will Muir, George Hendy and the aforementioned Cokanasiga – available to England.
Decisions, decisions. England are picking from strength in that they are on an 11-Test unbeaten run. But equally this is a key staging post in terms of building towards next year’s World Cup. At this similar juncture in 2022, Eddie Jones picked a 36-man squad for that year’s Six Nations. Remarkably, half of that group did not make the 2023 World Cup squad ultimately supervised by Borthwick. Injuries and form are always part of the equation but so is consistency.
Don’t expect, consequently, a blizzard of fresh, white-shirted faces. At some stage one imagines Borthwick will want to look at uncapped scrum-half prospects such as Archie McParland and Charlie Bracken and a thrusting young hooker or two. But for now it is about deciding whether Jamie George, Elliot Daly and Henry Slade can all go to the 2027 World Cup and, if not, giving game time to others. Ojomoh, Arundell, Henry Pollock as a starter, Fisilau or Barbeary as energising training ground wildcards? It is about backing a hunch that may or may not pay off.
The process is never an exact science. Of the six uncapped players in that original 2022 Six Nations squad unveiled by Jones, only Ollie Chessum and Tommy Freeman kicked on. The others – Barbeary, Ollie Hassell-Collins, Luke Northmore and Orlando Bailey – have mostly had to be patient.
But Borthwick will also be aware of the ticking clock. With winning the primary objective in this July’s Nations Championship away games in South Africa and Argentina, a home game against a fragile Wales offers the last real chance to experiment. Then again he will want to take more than 50% of Friday’s squad to Australia next year.
This is an extract taken from our weekly rugby union email, the Breakdown. To sign up, just visit this page and follow the instructions.
