At the end of yet another semi-final in Melbourne on Thursday night, Aryna Sabalenka slammed the door shut on Elina Svitolina with a searing forehand winner, her 29th of the night. It was another near flawless performance from the Belarusian, another match she dominated from start to finish without any response, reinforcing her status as the leading hard court player of her generation.
Six matches in, Sabalenka’s fourth consecutive run to the Australian Open final has proved one of her most impressive. Sabalenka is yet to drop a set and she has shown how much her game has evolved by also dominating the net and peppering opponents with an array of delicate drop shots. The few times she has been pushed, such as in her third round match against Anastasia Potapova, the world No 1 has produced her best tennis in the decisive moments and she has been in control of the baseline throughout.
A completely different match-up awaits Sabalenka on Saturday as she faces Elena Rybakina, the fifth seed and one of her toughest rivals, for her fifth grand slam title. While their career achievements reflect the fact that Sabalenka is more rounded, a better mover and returner with greater variation and consistency, Rybakina is one of the only players capable of tearing the racket from Sabalenka’s hands.
This was the case just three months ago at the WTA Finals in Riyadh, where Rybakina closed out a spectacular 6-3, 7-6 (0) win over Sabalenka to clinch the second biggest title of her career behind her Wimbledon crown. At the end of the match, after the Kazakhstani bulldozed through the second set tie-break without dropping a point, an inconsolable Sabalenka was captured on video venting to her team: “Once a year, even a stick shoots,” she said of Rybakina’s performance.
Rybakina is not nearly as temperamental as Sabalenka suggested, but her title run in Riyadh had come after so many false starts. Until a few weeks before the WTA Finals, Rybakina was not even in a qualifying spot as one of the top eight players. Her late surge in Asia to reach the event increasingly looks like one of the more significant moments of her career. She has continued the momentum she built in Riyadh, also reaching the final in Melbourne without dropping a set. While Sabalenka’s level has been astounding, there is no doubt that Rybakina has had the tougher path to the final, defeating two top players in Iga Swiatek, the world No 2, and Jessica Pegula, the No 6.
The rivalry between Sabalenka and Rybakina is responsible for some of the best matches in recent years, with Sabalenka holding an 8-6 lead, but none of their meetings compare to their final here three years ago. At that point, Sabalenka was still searching for her first grand slam title while Rybakina, one year her junior, had already won Wimbledon in 2022. Sabalenka showed exactly what she was capable of, recovering from a set down to win her first major title in a first-strike battle of the highest quality.
So much has happened since then. Sabalenka has transformed herself from a contender into the undisputed best player in the world and she continues to sweep up grand slam finals every year. The biggest questions surrounding the 27-year-old’s career is exactly how high she can rise in the history books and how legendary her career will turn out to be.
Sabalenka is now the second woman in the open era, after Martina Hingis, to reach seven consecutive grand slam finals on hard courts. A victory would earn Sabalenka her fifth grand slam title and third Australian Open victory in four years. She would rise to joint 12th on the open era list for most grand slam champions won by a female player, drawing her level with Hingis and Maria Sharapova.
Not as much has changed for Rybakina in terms of her top-line career achievements. As was the case three years ago, she is here in the final weekend of the Australian Open attempting to follow her Wimbledon triumph by winning a second grand slam title. The toughest possible challenge in women’s tennis awaits.
