What is the plan for Jaxon Smith-Njigba?
The Seattle Seahawks’ run game came alive during the second half of the season and postseason. But it’s still the passing game that makes the offense sing. Almost all of that flows through Smith-Njigba.
The wide receiver has played out of his mind this season. He roasts every defensive coverage and has morphed into a three-level threat: beating man-coverage quickly off the snap, showing fearlessness to attack the middle of the field and stretching away from deep coverage. Klint Kubiak, the Seahawks’ offensive coordinator, has channeled the entire Seattle offense through his star receiver. Smith-Njigba lines up everywhere: out wide, in the slot, in the backfield. From any of those looks, he’s a matchup nightmare. His dominance has meant that the Seahawks can send fewer receivers out in the route, allowing them to keep extra players in to protect Sam Darnold. Only the Rams sent out all five eligible receivers at a lower rate than Seattle this season.
In the NFC championship against the Rams, Seattle’s rushing attack dried up after an explosive opening. But they continued to convert on third-and-longs thanks to Smith-Njigba, either because of his catches or due to the gravity he creates for other targets.
Solving the Smith-Njigba riddle will be the Patriots’ biggest challenge. They could look to double-team him and force the ball elsewhere, or plant their own star player, cornerback Christian Gonzalez, in a one-on-one matchup and hope for the best.
Whose pass protection holds up?
The best way to stop an effective passing attack? Relentlessly pressure the quarterback. Darnold has struggled under heat this season. The Seahawks’ passing game ranks sixth in EPA/dropback when there is no pressure and drops to 22nd when there is pressure.
New England’s best pass rushers – Milton Williams and Christian Barmore – play inside. Both have been outstanding during the team’s playoff run, and it just so happens they match up nicely with Seattle’s two weakest links. Seahawks right guard Anthony Bradford has struggled all season. On 10% of plays, he looks like a Hall of Famer, blasting open holes in the running game. On the other 90%, he’s a mess. Bradford will torpedo his own linemen in the run game and has conceded the highest pressure rate of any starting lineman in this year’s Super Bowl. Next to Bradford is center Jalen Sundell, who hasn’t looked the same since returning from a mid-season injury.
If the Patriots can craft one-on-one matchups preying on Seattle’s weakness, life will be uncomfortable for Darnold. When Darnold is uncomfortable, he plays erratically. To have a shot against a more talented team, the Patriots need to force turnovers. And the clearest path to that is isolating and attacking Bradford and Sundell.
But the Patriots have protection problems of their own. The left side of their line features two rookies: tackle Will Campbell and guard Jared Wilson. Each has looked wobbly in the playoffs. There is no team you want to face less than the Seahawks when you have a compromised line.
Seattle’s pass rush is merciless. They have high-end quality and depth. The Seahawks had six different players record at least 35 pressures this year – no other team had more than four players get to that total. They don’t blitz a lot, but when they do, they’ve been the most effective blitzing team in the NFL. For the Pats rookies, there will be no reps off.
An offense can work around having one sinkhole along the offensive line. Working around two is tough. And working around two who stand next to each other is almost impossible – you can ask last year’s Chiefs about that. Drake Maye has been extra vulnerable to pressure in the postseason, too, with his pressure-to-sack rate jumping to an eye-watering 48%. The Patriots quarterback also has a bad case of fumble-itis. Sacks (and turnovers) kill drives – and drives will be at a premium on Sunday.
Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels will need to find a solution. During the playoffs, the plan has been to keep extra players in the backfield to help out the rookies. But that compromises the menu of plays he can get to in the passing game, and will play into the hands of a Seahawks unit that swamps the field with bodies in coverage.
All eyes should be on the matchup between Campbell and DeMarcus Lawrence, who will be the best pass rusher on the field. The Seahawks move him all around the front, but they’re likely to try to get him matched up on Campbell as often as possible. If Campbell can hold up Seattle’s best edge rusher, New England will have a chance to move the ball. If not, Lawrence will wreck the Patriots.
Can the Patriots find explosive plays?
The Patriots led the NFL in explosive play rate during the regular season, recording a 10+ yard rush or 15+ yard pass on 15.8% of their plays. In large part, that’s been thanks to the brilliance of Maye. He is a dynamite thrower down the field and an effective scrambler. But he’s facing a unit that refuses to allow chunk yardage. Seattle’s entire defensive doctrine is to force quick, short throws before flying downhill to create carnage. And they do that better than any defense in recent memory.
Trying to rip the Seahawks cornerbacks over their heads will be a challenge. The Rams found a path in the NFC championship game by focusing on cornerback Tariq Woolen, a hyperactive player who hunts big plays when there is no play to be made. Expect the Patriots to match up Stefon Diggs, their most reliable target, with Woolen as often as possible. And keep an eye on Kyle Williams, the Patriots’ most electric receiver. He only plays a handful of snaps per game, but is put on the field solely to chase big shots.
Failing that, the Patriots will need to force missed tackles. Maye will have to check the ball down to his running backs against the Seahawks’ deep, shell coverage. Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson force a ton of missed tackles. If they can scamper away from Seattle’s defenders, they will have a chance to turn rough drives into scoring ones.
The coaching matchup
What makes this matchup so intriguing is that it features strength on strength all over the field. The Seahawks do their best work running the ball from heavier personnel groupings. That just so happens to be where the Patriots do their best work slowing rushing attacks. The Patriots are an explosive, vertical offense. The Seahawks stifle big plays.
The difference between the two teams will be on the margins. Who handles the occasion best? Who makes the right fourth-down decisions? Who makes the correct on-the-fly adjustments when their pass protection is caving in? Who has saved a handful of bespoke, payoff plays for this opponent? Which kicker holds his nerve on field goals?
Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel has been here before, as a player. Mike Macdonald, Seattle’s head honcho, has never coached in the Super Bowl. Macdonald is a defensive savant whose unit significantly improves as the game progresses. He figures out what’s working and ditches what isn’t. In fourth quarters this year, the Seahawks defense leads the league in EPA/play, pressure rate and sack rate. Macdonald can decode how an offense is trying to break down his unit and roll out counters of his own.
But he’s going up against someone with bags of experience. McDaniels has been on six Super Bowl-winning staffs. His MO is saving something you haven’t seen before for the biggest possible moment. The Seahawks will need to be alert to a wonky formation or trick play as the Patriots look to steal a possession.
Then there is Vrabel. His calling card is game management, aggression and his knowledge of the rules. His team is the underdog. What does he have under his vest to keep the matchup close late?
In the modern era, Super Bowls have typically come down to one or two plays. The Seahawks have a kicking advantage, but the Patriots have a coach who has mastered the art of navigating one-score games. If the game turns into a slog, the Patriots have an edge. But they will have to find a way to limit the exposure to their offensive line, and that rarely works in championship games.
