A review of the way the handicaps have gone at the end of a tournament is often instructive, and we can say that this tournament has statistically proved the World Cup of the underdog. Of the 46 games that have been played so far 29 have gone against the favourites on a 50-50 handicap. In other words, if you had backed the team with a head start in every game you would have been right 63 per cent of the time - a handsome success rate for a handicapper.
And some of those wins would have been massive if you had combined your fixed-odds handicapping with a spread bet against the margin of victory (same concept as a handicap, but the more 'right' you are the more you are rewarded, and the more 'wrong' the more punished). When the underdogs have done well in a game, they have tended to do very well, far exceeding expectations in some. The best underdog performance relative to the bookies' handicap was that of Georgia against Ireland, who were given around a 55-point head-start and who lost by only four. Also of note was Tonga's effort against South Africa (around a 41-point head-start and losing by only five) and the USA against England (around a 55-point head-start and losing by only 18).
It seems a long time ago now and not actually during the World Cup, but a final mention for one favourite who far surpassed their handicap in a warm-up match - England against Wales at Twickenham. They were given a handicap of around -15 and they won by 57. Back then we thought maybe they might not be so bad after all ...
France -10 v Argentina (Sporting bet)
Difficult to call a game as unloved as this. It's the sort of game you might expect the French to shrug their shoulders at. But their captain, and probably a couple of others, are likely to be playing their last game for their country. It is at France's spiritual home, the Parc des Princes, and you could argue that this is closer, certainly in the pack, to the side France should have fielded all along. I make them as having a slight edge in all departments, bar at half-back. Then there is the revenge they may well be seeking for the opening defeat they must feel is responsible for all their troubles since. Argentina have had a tighter turnaround for this game and must be tired. Then again, coming third at a World Cup should mean more to them than it would to France. But the pressure is off France and that makes them dangerous.
England +9 v South Africa (Stan James at evens)
How can we go against the policy that this World Cup has recommended? Take the underdog again. I make South Africa as having a slight advantage in all departments, bar front row (where England do) and at half-back (where it's too tight to call). But South Africa must be thinking this game is won already. They have been talking about the final since they saw the draw open up for them at the end of the pool stages. They were nearly caught final-watching by Fiji, and if they hadn't been gifted all four of their tries in the semi-final against Argentina, who knows how things might have turned out? England have cut out the mistakes, and they won't get pushed around. South Africa have serious pace out wide, but they don't tend to unleash it on their own terms, but rather off the opposition's mistakes. If England can keep the error rate low, this should be another tight one.
