In theory Brian Ashton should learn today whether he has a realistic future as England head coach. Anyone with the faintest knowledge of Rugby Football Union politics, however, knows that clearcut decisions are not Twickenham's speciality. Rob Andrew did not get where he is this morning by being impulsive and it will be a surprise if English rugby's latest inelegant power struggle does not rumble on for a while longer.
Nor will Ashton's job security be the first topic of conversation at the RFU's management board meeting, which is due to commence at 9.30am. All present will first want to hear from Andrew, the RFU's director of elite rugby, whether his discussions with England's World Cup-winning captain, Martin Johnson, have borne any fruit and, if not, what alternatives Andrew can offer. If they are merely told the status quo is to be maintained, the discussions could get very lively.
There are suggestions that Johnson has been underwhelmed by the small print of the potential role on offer. There is no way he will take a managerial position which lacks proper clout but Andrew has already promised Ashton the final say on any new team manager. If Ashton retains complete selectorial control, Johnson's friends say the big man will not be interested. If he were to be handed the keys to the entire trainset, in contrast, it is hard to envisage Ashton hanging around. Severance of his contract would cost a minimum of one year's salary, believed to be in the range of £250,000 to £350,000, possibly more if his lawyers were to pursue a claim for constructive dismissal.
Either way it is a unedifying mess. Even if Johnson concludes the time is not right to dip his toes into such poisonous waters, the RFU's clumsy handling of national team affairs since the World Cup has already left Ashton in a no-win situation. He, like Andy Robinson before him, wanted a team manager but was unable to secure one. Andrew's post-World Cup review recommended retaining the existing coaching staff but subsequent inconsistent performances and mutterings from within the squad have alarmed influential club figures. Some high-profile former players have noted the instant success Warren Gatland and Shaun Edwards have had with Wales and wondered aloud whether the same clarity of leadership is a feature of England's preparations.
It is for that reason that Andrew, who only returned from a family holiday in Greece last night, will have to tread warily this morning. Having reappointed Ashton only five months ago he will be closely questioned if it is suspected he only spoke to Johnson to pacify the more hawkish elements within the RFU.
Opting not to employ someone of Johnson's standing, however, will provoke accusations that Andrew does not want anyone who might rock the boat. Johnson has already accepted a position on the new Professional Game Board which is set to administer the elite game and Premier Rugby's chief executive, Mark McCafferty, described him yesterday as "a unique force in the English game". Regardless of what happens, McCafferty wants Johnson to remain on the 12-man board which also includes the latter's ex-England team-mate Jason Leonard.
Another former England prop, Jeff Probyn, is less convinced. "Rob needs his head examined if he recommends bringing Martin Johnson in," said Probyn. "He has no experience of management or administration, even at club level. It would be the same as putting Lawrence Dallaglio or Will Carling in that position. They'd have strong ideas about the players that should be picked or the way the game should be played. If you did put a manager like that in there you'd expect Brian to resign."
Premier Rugby, meanwhile, has warned the BBC it is unhappy about the amount of Guinness Premiership action being aired on terrestrial television. At present only 12 half-hour highlights shows are being shown, compared with 33 live games per season on Sky. "We don't believe it does the game justice," said Jon Varney, Premier Rugby's commercial director.
