Handicap betting is on the rise in rugby, and it is easy to see why. The handicap requires the bookie to be more precise and more candid about the deal he is offering. Anyone can pick a number between 50 to 1,000 for the odds of, say, Portugal beating New Zealand, safe in the knowledge it isn't going to happen, and you can be sure the odds are well short of the real chances of it taking place. But with a handicap bet, a bookie has to come up with a precise figure for the winning margin and then offer odds not far off evens if it is meant to be a 50-50 shot. The further away from evens the odds get, the more the bookie is diddling us. 10-11 are typical odds for a handicap bet, and anything shorter than 5-6 should not be taken on for a 50-50 shot.
England -18 v Tonga (sportingbet)
The forecast in Paris is for rain and England have picked a set of forwards that has set-piece written all over. They showed enough against Samoa to suggest that a corner may have been turned after the debacle against South Africa, but not so much that they will be taking this one at all lightly. Upsets are relatively much rarer the more people at large are expecting them, and more than a few people have suggested that England need to be careful of these Tongans or they will lose. And for all their heroics against South Africa and a back row that is at least the equal of England's, are Tonga, if we are to be cruel and cold-hearted, that good? They just about defeated the US, they were clinging on for dear life against Samoa (who are, all things being equal, a significantly better side) and, if they were brilliant last weekend, the second-string Springboks were every bit as awful. There are question marks over their captain's fitness, they have lost their best line-out forward, and this will be their fourth game in 17 days with a team that has remained largely unchanged throughout. England really ought to have pulled away by the end for a comfortable win.
Romania +83 v New Zealand (the betting room, and if it doesn't stay for long +77 is available with Ladbrokes and betdirect)
New Zealand ring the changes again, and it beggars belief that Graham Henry has still to give his best side a run of more than one game together. Will he still be chopping and changing come the final? This side is closer to second string than first, particularly with the added disruption of Dan Carter's late withdrawal, and the search goes on for a proper work-out before the quarter-finals. The All Blacks have also been given a little holiday since the Scotland game. Romania, though, field pretty much as strong a side as they can with a pack drawn from French rugby and a full-back who kicks the ball as far as anyone in this competition. Indeed, it may well be that this ends up as New Zealand's sternest examination yet - Romania, by their selection, seem more up for it than Italy or Scotland were.
Canada +48 v Australia (ladbrokes, sportingbet)
Australia also ring the changes and field a second string, which is further disrupted with Scott Staniforth pulling out. Their work is done for the time being, with a quarter-final long since guaranteed. Canada are gearing up for a send-off for two of their finest, Mike James and Morgan Williams, as well as possibly Rod Snow. This is their last game at this event and they must be seething at the way they had a first win snatched from them at the death against Japan on Tuesday. This is in the same stadium and, while they won't win here (man for man Australia's backs, in particular, are so much better), it shouldn't be quite the turkey shoot the bookies have it down as.
Wales -19 v Fiji (victor chandler, betfred, betdirect)
This is a tricky one. Fiji are among the handicap punter's worst nightmares - which side will turn up? They tend to raise performances for games they aren't supposed to win and lower them for the ones they are. All the same, a useful tool for the handicap better can sometimes be to cross-reference results for the two sides. It should be done with caution, particularly with a side like Fiji, but here we see Fiji struggle to a four-point win over Japan, whom Wales beat by 54. Fiji beat Canada by 13 points, but the truer result would have been much closer, possibly even a Canada win - Wales beat the Canucks by 25 in the end, having taken 50 minutes to get going. Both went down to Australia convincingly, though Fiji (with an overachieving second team) lost by 43 to Wales's 12. Both teams have full sides out for this one and the winner goes through to the quarter-finals, so the stakes are high. But a man-for-man comparison of the two packs and the half-backs favours Wales quite handsomely, who are just as capable as Fiji of cutting an indisciplined side to pieces, if not more so. They should be tighter in the set-piece, too. Being away from the crowing Welsh public may also bring its own relief.
Italy +8 v Scotland (stan james)
Both teams have invested too much in this one for it to be a thing of beauty. Italy have been awful all tournament and, in the early jockeying for position against inferior opposition, Scotland have impressed more with the way they eased past Romania and Portugal. But none of that will really matter for this match. Ultimately we have two evenly matched sides, with Scotland enjoying maybe a slight advantage man for man, particularly at second-row (where Italy have lost their captain, a serious blow) and out wide. But Italy have a slight edge in the front row and at centre. So it's neck and neck, though in the all-important middle five of the team (back row and half-backs) Scotland are arguably the tighter unit. But tight is the word for this one, and for matches of this kind it is as well to back the underdog. Plus eight constitutes a bit of daylight for what is likely to be an ugly, edgy encounter.
