It is scant consolation to him now, but the former Wales coach Gareth Jenkins got it right when he predicted that the Six Nations countries who made a slow start to the World Cup would be a force in the quarter-finals.

Jenkins, who was sacked by Wales after the group defeat to Fiji, cited Wales and Ireland, who both failed to make the last eight, along with France and England, but his general point was sound: starting the tournament at the very beginning of the European season meant that it would take the Six Nations countries a few weeks to generate momentum.

Jenkins was speaking after a weekend which had seen England crushed by South Africa and Wales downed by Australia. At that stage it looked as if the semi-finals would be fought out by the Tri-Nations and Argentina, but Jenkins was having none of it. "I think they are in for a few surprises," he said.

Shocks more like. Punters could have had 36-1 on an England and France double last Saturday and the South Africa coach Jake White was almost lost for words when his side found themselves the only Tri-Nations side in the semi-finals.

"It is a big surprise that the countries who were ranked one and two in the world are on their way home," said White. "England were being written off after we beat them 36-0 in the group stage, but if you get to a World Cup final, you are likely to have had one or two off performances along the way. It is the nature of the competition.

"I have always maintained that World Cups are won on defence. Neither Australia not New Zealand reached 20 points in their quarter-finals and that was down to the tackling of England and France. The whole tournament has been turned on its head and I guess there are no favourites now. We are just glad to still be involved."

Inquests are already being held in New Zealand and Australia where the Super 14 series - a model for attacking rugby but a tournament that is unlike Europe's Heineken Cup, which is based on the World Cup - is coming under scrutiny. France have defeated New Zealand in two of the last three World Cups and Australia's interest has ended at the hands of England twice in succession.

Is the life-or-death European game better preparation for the knock-out stages of the World Cup than the 'there is always tomorrow' Super 14. "I am not sure," said White. "You can prepare for a tournament thoroughly, you can spend hours and hours on analysis, conditioning and the like, but the one thing you cannot influence as a coach is how players will react under pressure. You can draw up a gameplan you think is watertight, but it is always about the decisions players will make in the heat of the moment. We did not intend to get sucked into an open game against Fiji but it happened because young players, in the pressure of the moment, made the wrong calls. The same happened to New Zealand and Australia but, unlike them, we worked our way out to the other side."

Whereas South Africa are the favourites to beat Argentina on Sunday, England and France are more evenly matched. Their reaction to last weekend's victories was markedly different: both teams had come under fire in the media after a poor start to the competition, but the reaction of the England players to Saturday was not to round on those who had criticised them but to acknowledge that they had been poor in the opening weeks and had worked to put it right.

In contrast, some French players pointed fingers at journalists and made insulting remarks. It might be an example of Gallic passion compared to English reserve, but it could also indicate that England saw Saturday as a stepping-stone while the French, who had been accused by their own union's president Bernard Lapasset of betrayal after the opening night defeat to Argentina, regarded their defeat of the All Blacks as an end in itself.

Would not White rather face England than the hosts. "I will say two things to that: the first is that all we can focus on is our semi-final against Argentina, even without this being a tournament of shocks. The second is that England are not the team we beat 36-0. They knew they had another chance then. If you get it wrong now, you're out."