Winning the World Cup wasn't the beginning of an era in English rugby, but the end of one. There can hardly have been a team in history, in any sport, who have made such a poor job of being the best side in the world.
In the four Six Nations tournaments since 2003, England have finished no better than third, they have lost 27 of their 45 fixtures in that time and they into this tournament ranked seventh in the world, just a shade above Italy and Wales. Throughout Andy Robinson's time in charge each successive Test was a fresh exercise in low expectations - surely England can't be that bad again?
The 25-14 defeat to South Africa's second team last autumn was the final occasion when that question was answered with a resounding 'yes'. The least Brian Ashton has done since he took over is deliver the team from the dark days of regular humiliation.
What he has been patently unable to do is forge a side capable of defending its title. When he was first appointed, England fans were anticipating a return to the fluent attacking rugby that had marked his previous spell as the England backs coach, working with Clive Woodward, circa 2001. But notions of improbable swashbuckling renaissance were scuppered by the grotesqueness of the situation facing Ashton. His adventurous spirit has flourished only in cameo - as with Shane Geraghty's substitute appearance against France earlier this year. Ashton has had to weigh the risk of humiliation at the World Cup against the unlikely possibility of creating a team with the style and coherence to win the thing, and he has opted to be conservative in his selection.
It is a forgivable, even shrewd decision: an embarrassing campaign would not be tolerated on a stage this big, and the harm done to England's future could be too large for him to overcome. Instead, Ashton has opted for damage limitation, with a view to reconstructing the team after the event. Hence the omission of all England's most exciting young talent - Geraghty, Toby Flood, James Simpson-Daniel and Nick Abendanon, among others. Instead, England have a collection of war-horses which would put a knacker's yard to shame.
The return to muscular conservatism as a tournament tactic is no bad thing: England did exactly that in 2003. The trouble is that, unlike that side, the only area of the game in which this squad excels is the changing room, where they have no shortage of inspirational speechmakers and pack-leaders.
Unlike in 2003, England's big personalities are either undeserving of a place in a world XV, or seriously deficient in match fitness, or both. Neither Lawrence Dallaglio nor Phil Vickery can be expected to stay fit throughout such an intense tournament. Around them Ashton has a pack heavy on journeyman experience - George Chuter, Mark Regan, Simon Shaw and Perry Freshwater - and players who have never quite realised their full potential - Steve Borthwick and Joe Worsley.
Aside from the sheer bulk of men like Andrew Sheridan and Nick Easter, and the granite will of Dallaglio and Martin Corry - whose battered bewilderment at each of his post-defeat captain's press conferences still overshadow his unstinting effort on the pitch - England have very few weapons in their arsenal.
The situation is worse in the backline. Too much hinges on the ability of Andy Farrell and the fitness of Mike Catt. The wisdom and range of passing common to both of their games makes them entirely necessary to the fluency of England's attacks. Neither could be safely predicted to be in possession of the No13 shirt by the time England are knocked out.
Jonny Wilkinson, the team's potential match-winner, has simply not played enough rugby over recent years to be at his methodical best. Even in 2003, when he enjoyed perfect preparation, he went missing from open play for large parts of the tournament. Now, when he is uncertain as to who will be playing inside and outside of him and lacking the confidence that comes with winning, he will struggle to do justice to his own high expectations.
Josh Lewsey and Jason Robinson - two more key figures - both seem to have sacrificed flair and spontaneity in exchange for bulk and power. This is a team that will deliver few surprises: if England are to have any devil about their play it will have to come from Mathew Tait or Paul Sackey.
But then this Cup has become a case of better the devil you know, and this team smacks of that old English favourite: the plucky loser. An honourable exit in the quarter-finals would be as much as they deserve on form, and a place in the semis as much as they merit on potential.
There are probably going to be even more international careers called to a halt after this campaign than the last. This Cup will be a last hurrah not just for the likes of Dallaglio, but, I expect, for the whole sorry chapter of English rugby history. Clive Woodward always demanded that he was judged on his results in the World Cup; Brian Ashton may well be asking us not to judge him till the next Six Nations comes around.
Squad - forwards: Steve Borthwick, George Chuter, Martin Corry, Lawrence Dallaglio, Nick Easter, Perry Freshwater, Ben Kay, Lee Mears, Lewis Moody, Mark Regan, Tom Rees, Matt Stevens, Andy Sheridan, Simon Shaw, Joe Worsley, Phil Vickery (c). Backs: Olly Barkley, Mike Catt, Mark Cueto, Andy Farrell, Andy Gomarsall, Dan Hipkiss, Josh Lewsey, Jamie Noon, Shaun Perry, Peter Richards, Jason Robinson, Paul Sackey, Mathew Tait, Jonny Wilkinson.
Tournament odds: 25-1
World ranking: 7
