The verdict: four wise men with a feeling for France

The experts are going with France to win the Six Nations, despite last-week's slip-up against England.
  
  


France

1st: Pts diff+42. Title odds 2-5

Today v Scotland, Paris, 3.30pm

John Connolly, Australia coach

Bernard Laporte is unusual for a French coach in the way he makes defence his priority, but they were undone by a lack of ambition against England and you have to look at the average age of their forwards. That said, they had a terrific win in Ireland and they are a side who, when the wind is with them, can rip anyone apart if given space. I think they will win the title today because they should not have too many problems at home to Scotland, and when you look where they were coming from, after being trounced twice by the All Blacks last November, that would not be a bad return for them.

Graham Henry, New Zealand coach

I will be getting tapes of all this season's matches in due course and I would have thought France would be reasonably satisfied with their campaign, despite last weekend's defeat against England. They went well in their opening three matches; it is never easy winning in Ireland and as they are hosting the World Cup later this year their priority would have been to win all their home games, a target they should achieve today.

Jake White, South Africa coach

The way the fixtures are organised I think France will win the championship. England are too far adrift for a start and the fact that Ireland kick off first is the key. France will know exactly what they have to do and they'll be smarting after last Saturday, with something to prove to their home fans. The way the French keep the ball alive is outstanding and once they get momentum it's very difficult to keep them in check. They defend very, very well and they just have so many good players in all positions to choose from - there are no weak links when they're all switched on. You just don't know what French team is going to turn up. Last week they looked as if they didn't even know they were at Twickenham, even though you couldn't get much more motivation than essentially playing for the grand slam. They have got a huge amount of talent and depth but I wonder if they know who their best half-backs are. It's great to be able to swap No9s and No10s around but the best sides have a settled combination, like a Gregan and Larkham or a Marshall and Mehrtens.

Marcelo Loffreda, Argentina coach

France are a team that, if they hit their concentration peak and are mentally tuned in, have to win the Six Nations championship. They generate great ball, are hard to read and have a very powerful scrum. They have different options and play a modern game. If they are focused their defence is almost unbreakable. Yannick Jauzion is their key. The loose forwards are very powerful and Sébastien Chabal, if fully fit, is unstoppable. And Pierre Mignoni is their best scrum-half. Their focus is their most vulnerable aspect. They can lose concentration and that becomes a big problem. Today Scotland are not going to give them any favours because they should bounce back from an unlucky defeat against Ireland. But France should take the championship.

Ireland

2nd: Pts diff +38. Title odds: 7-4

Today v Italy, Rome, 1.30pm

JC At full strength they are a real handful, as we found out at Lansdowne Road last autumn. They have a number of world-class players, some of whom, such as Brian O'Driscoll and Paul O'Connell, are probably the leading players in their positions in the world. They did not just beat England, they systematically took them apart. But they are, like Australia, vulnerable if certain players get injured: they lost to France after losing O'Driscoll and Peter Stringer to injury. They do not have another tight-head remotely near John Hayes and Ronan O'Gara is similarly irreplaceable. You have to have fortune blowing your sails if you are to get through a World Cup campaign without suffering one or two personnel setbacks and, though they are second in the world rankings on merit, I would put them behind New Zealand, France and England in the World Cup because they do not have the same playing resources.

GH New Zealand seem to be overwhelming favourites to win the World Cup but we can't do anything about that. It is a long road and we are getting there slowly. I think Ireland have a very good side: they did extremely well in the autumn and they were outstanding against England, bouncing back impressively after losing to France. They are going to be very competitive in France and I will be interested to see how they go in Italy today, because they have acquired the knack of winning away.

JW A settled side of class and experience. They are where England were four years ago - you can name their team without having to think twice. The fact that their combinations at half-back and in the centre also play together at provincial level is a huge advantage. And they have world-class players in those positions. They have players who know what to do in every situation. No weaknesses to speak of, though if they were to get a run of injuries to their first-choice players it would hurt them. They are missing Paul O'Connell this weekend and that would be a big blow of them - he is a world-class player and it's never easy to replace those. They'll play quite conservatively against Italy - because you can't throw the ball around against them these days - and secure the win first before they try anything.

ML Ireland are an extremely well balanced team; if their intelligence centre, Peter Stringer and Ronan O'Gara, is in full operational mode they are a team to be scared of. If you throw into that equation an on-song Brian O'Driscoll they are pretty much invincible on any given day. They have the ability to attack, find field position to generate kickable penalties or score with their good backs and their ability to play ball-in-hand. They also have a strong will. They were impressive against England and when fired up they have an extra strength that puts them apart.

England

3rd: Pts diff +13. Title odds 40-1 Today v Wales, Cardiff, 5.30pm

JC Like France they had a disappointing autumn, and they have not done much since winning the World Cup in 2003, but they will always be a threat because they have so many players to choose from. They lost Jonny Wilkinson for the match against France but Toby Flood replaced him at outside-half and had a stormer before limping off, only for Shane Geraghty to come on and win the match. It has not been a vintage Six Nations and the All Blacks are way ahead of everybody else but World Cups are about one-off matches, not the form book, as the All Blacks have found in the past more than once. England have the quality and the depth to mount a strong defence of their trophy, but they will know more about themselves after the game in Cardiff today. Wales are nowhere near as bad as their record suggests.

GH I thought France and Ireland would challenge for the title but also that Wales would be there with them. I always look out for Wales after my time there and they will be disappointed having to go into their final game looking for their first victory. They have the chance of redemption, not because it is England but because they have the basis of a very good side and need the confidence a win generates. I am looking forward to seeing how England played against France because I am told they were very good and blooded some exciting young players. You can never write off England because of the depth of their resources.

JW They must be a hell of a happy bunch after beating France, particularly with so many young boys in the team, and that'll give them momentum. They backed themselves as an attacking side, despite the criticism they have had. After taking 40 points against Ireland they were under huge pressure and they must take huge credit for playing with the freedom they did. They took on the French up front despite all the talk about Martin Corry moving to lock, and they didn't allow France to get into the game. The big question mark will be their consistency. They have got something they can build on but they have a lot of inexperience and they might not always take the right options. But they will give it a full go and I expect it to be an exciting match in Cardiff.

ML England are trying to regain confidence and have started to play a more direct style, rather than their lateral game under Andy Robinson. They can become frustrated and don't seem to be strong mentally. But under Brian Ashton they've understood that playing successive phases without hitting hard is no good. You have to hurt the opposition and that is Ashton's aim in this tournament.

How they stand and who needs what

Table P W D L Pts PD

France 4 3 0 1 6 +42

Ireland 4 3 0 1 6 +38

England 4 3 0 1 6 +13

Italy 4 2 0 2 4 -26

Scotland 4 1 0 3 2 -31

Wales 4 0 0 4 0 -36

Previous results

Italy 3 France 39, England 42 Scotland 20, Wales 9 Ireland 19, England 20 Italy 7, Scotland 21 Wales 9, Ireland 17 France 20, Scotland 17 Italy 37, Ireland 43 England 13, France 32 Wales 21, Scotland 18 Ireland 19, Italy 23 Wales 20, England 26 France 18 If England, France and Ireland win

· England must win by 31 points more than France and 27 points more than Ireland.

· Ireland must win by 5 points more than France and can afford to win by anything up to 25 points less than England.

· France can afford to win by 4 points less than Ireland and 29 points less than England.

If England lose and France and Ireland win ·Ireland must beat Italy by five points more than France's margin of victory over Scotland

If Ireland lose and France and England win ·England must beat Wales by 30 points more than France's margin of victory over Scotland If France lose and England and Ireland win

·England must beat Wales by 27 points more than Ireland's margin of victory over Italy

If two of France, Ireland and England lose and one wins ·The winner takes the title

If France, England and Ireland lose ·France can afford to lose by 5 points more than Ireland. If France and Ireland lose by wide margins (30pts+ each) a narrow England loss could still secure the title

If France and England lose heavily and Italy beat Ireland by around 50pts... ·Italy will be Six Nations champions

 

Leave a Comment

Required fields are marked *

*

*