Preamble. Ireland like playing Italy in a World Cup. Or at least they do in football where they've met twice - the 1-0 victory in Giants Stadium in1994 being the football equivalent of the rugby team's victory over Australia in Auckland two weeks ago. Even the 1-0 defeat in Rome in 1990 was offset but the fact that a) it was the World Cup quarter final and b) the squad got to meet the Pope so, result. But this is a first meeting with the Italians at a rugby World Cup and there is hell of a lot at stake - certainly it's far too nervous on occasion than can be healthy at this time on a Sunday morning. But this is a real chance for Ireland to add to the 2011 World Cup to 1990 and 1994 football tournament's in Irish sporting folklore.
This list of permutations are mind-boggling but, if you can get your head round them, should contain the same stimulating effects as a doucle-espresso. So here goes ...
If Ireland win they go through as pool winners and will face Wales next Saturday in Wellington.
If Ireland draw then they will qualify as pool winners (beating Australia courtesy of the head-to-head record)
Italy will finish second if they beat Ireland, with or without a bonus point assuming Ireland do not gain two bonus points in defeat.
If Ireland lose but gain two bonus points they would either top the pool (if Italy fail to pick up a bonus point) or it would go to points difference, provided Italy pick up a bonus point.
So it's all pretty straightforward really. Of course Ireland can render all these permutations meaningless by simply going out and winning which would save us all the trouble of trying to clear our cloudy Sunday morning head's to figure out what might happen.
Here are the line-ups for today's game:
Ireland: Rob Kearney, Tommy Bowe, Brian O'Driscoll (capt), Gordon D'Arcy, Keith Earls, Ronan O'Gara, Conor Murray; Cian Healy, Rory Best, Mike Ross, Donncha O'Callaghan, Paul O'Connell, Stephen Ferris, Sean O'Brien, Jamie Heaslip.
Replacements: Sean Cronin, Tom Court, Donnacha Ryan, Denis Leamy, Eoin Reddan, Jonathan Sexton, Andrew Trimble.
Italy: A Masi; T Benvenuti, G Canale, G Garcia, Mirco Bergamasco; L Orquera, F Semenzato; S Perugini, L Ghiraldini, M Castrogiovanni, Q Geldenhuys, C van Zyl, A Zanni, Mauro Bergamasco, S Parisse (capt).
Replacements: F Ongaro, A lo Cicero, M Bortolami, P Derbyshire, E Gori, R Bocchino, L McLean.
Referee: Jonathan Kaplan (South Africa)
What would be the most spectacular way Ireland could blow this? Answers on a postcard.
Of course the obvious answer to that previous question is the front row. The Italians haven't been shy in bigging up their dominance in that area. "Let' see what happens on the pitch," the Ireland coach Declan Kidney says which is as close to fist-wielding fighting talk as you're going to get from Kidney in the build-up to this game.
National anthem reviews. Italy - chipper, bright, operatic. It will make you laugh, it will make you cry. It will send you home thinking. About what I'm not sure but, hey, a thought's a thought.
Ireland's Call. Lacklustre. Contrived. First blood Italy.
Peeep!!!!!! Jonathan Kaplan blows his whistle and Ronan O'Gara gets the gamer underway with Ireland playing from left-to-right.
1 min: The first chants of 'Ole, Ole, Ole' ring out from the largely-Irish crowd. You can take the fans out of Ireland ...
1 min: The first scrum and the Irish turn the all-dominant Italian front-row (© Nick mallett). That's a good start for Ireland. "Morning Evan," writes Niall Larkin. "My local in Stoke Newington has assured me that if Ireland win this morning, they'll open for the QF v Wales. At 6am. So I face the prospect of a potential 17 hour bender next week if Ireland win today. I don't know if this is a good or bad thing, but hoping Ireland do the business today. Ireland by 8." The other option is not to drink? Just a thought.
4 min: Ireland move into the Italian 22 courtesy of delicate low kick from O'Driscoll who really should have entered the Irish presidential race just to put an end to all the bickering.
5 min: Ronan O'Gara and Conor Murray make ground on the left as Ireland run through several phases. That comes to an end as Tommy Bowe tries an offload that is described as "ambitious" by the commentators but careless would be more accurate. Mirco Bergamasco very nearly gathers but knocks-on. The touch judge calls Jonathan Kaplan over having spotted some fisticuffs from Gonzalo Canale and Ronan O'Gara is going to have a kick at goal.
PENALTY! IRELAND 3-0 Italy. Ronan O'Gara makes no mistake with the penalty. Great start for Ireland. "I'm sure that not drinking really isn't an option," says Marty O'Connor of Niall Larkin's potential early start next week. Come on lads. Shed that national stereotype.
9 min: Penalty for Italy as Parisse hold the ball at the back of the scrum and the Irish are ruled to be turning. There's that front-row dominance we've heard so much about.
PENALTY! Ireland 3-3 ITALY. Mirco Bergamasco levels the scores with a lovely kick which wobbles a bit through the dead air of the indoor stadium but was never really in any doubt.
11 min: Ireland have a penalty but are pushing for the line with first O'Gara and then the relentless Sean O'Brien. They can't break through, however, so O'Gara will have another kick at goal. "Not drink?" says an incredulous Niall Larkin. "I don't think my nerves would hold up if I didn't drink. A morning Guinness is a great calmer, it's just that if we win.... God help me." Ok, you can drink during the game but nobody says you have to continue for the rest of the day.
PENALTY MISSED! O'Gara's penalty comes back off the upright and, after a couple of nervy moments including Ferris flattening Castrogiovanni, Semenzato clears his lines but it's out on the full and it's an Irish line-out.
15 min: O'Connell wins the line-out and Murray makes a great break. It's worked wide to O'Driscoll who tries to hand off to Keith Earls in the corner but they run out of room and he's forced into touch.
16 min: The Italians are penalised in the line-out for blocking. They're not happy with the decision but Ireland won't care - it's a chance for three more points.
PENALTY! IRELAND 6-3 Italy. Ronan O'Gara makes no mistake this time. "In a hotel room in Whitehorse, capital of the desolate Yukon Territory in Canada," writes Ronan Browne. "Desperately clinging to a weak hotel wifi signal. Trying to stay awake to see the lads do the business ... Ireland by 16. Your lad in Stokey should count his blessings." Do you hear that Larkin?
19 min: Italy respond well to going behind with a lovely chip forward from Masi. They're pushing for the line and have the a penalty advantage. This is a nervy moment for Ireland. Castrogiovanni dives for the line but is held up just short by Rory Best. Jonathan Kaplan has seen enough and brings play back for the penalty.
PENALTY! Ireland 6-6 ITALY. Another confident kick from Mirco Bergamasco and it's all-square again.
21 min: Cian Healy is furious with the referee. He thinks Ghiraldini has gone for his eye. The replay shows he has more than a case - it's blatant. The referee tells O'Driscoll that if he can't see it the Healy shouldn't get too worked up. I'm not sure that's how it works. ITV's co-commentator Alan Quinlan doesn't like it and, as my colleague Martin Pengelly points, Quinlan might know a thing or two about eye-gouging.
26 min: Italy are looking more and more assured as this is going on. "It's a deal," says Niall Larkin. "I won't drink after the match; it's probably for the best. Mind you, I'm painting myself into a corner here - no drinking, I'm a tight-faced kill joy, drink lots and I'm draping myself in centuries old stereotyping. Is there a Goldilocks option? Oh, and that was a nasty gouge on Healy - he's only back from an eye injury."
27 min: Ireland make ground, first on the right flank through Conor Murray who has been extremely impressive so far, and then on the left as O'Brien barges through the Italian defence which remains stron and Ireland have a scrum. "Pet and Sue are desperately following in Kuching on the 11th floor via ropey wifi too," say Susan Braid. "Aussies got to the pub before us and are watching aus cootie no amount of begging would get us Our boys boo hoo!" I barely understand any of those words.
29 min: I may have jinxed Murray. He fires the ball out for the scrum far too quickly and O'Driscoll sees it squirm out of his hands and it's knocked-on. Ireland manage to turn over possession through some excellent work from Heaslip. O'Brien hands-off to Tommy Bowe who crosses the line to score but the whistle has gone and Jonathan Kaplan (harshly) rules that Bowe knocked-on as he tried to gather the pass.
32 min: The Irish scrum is really standing up to the Italians and they win a free kick. Murray doesn't hang about and gives to to D'Arcy but it's sloppy from Ireland and they lose possession - Masi boot clear. "Larkin needs to pipe down," pipes Ronan Browne. "I'd give my left nut to be in the Fullback in Finsbury Park for this, or our next game." Ireland come again and the Italians are penalised. O'Gara has a chance to put Ireland ahead ...
PENALTY! IRELAND 9-6 Italy. O'Gara slots between the sticks and Ireland have the lead. They've surrendered it quickly following their previous scores. Can they hang on here until half-time? They are facing an Italian side minus Castrogiovanni who has departed with an injury.
36 min: Ireland are sloppy again following the restart and concede the scrum. Fortunately for Ireland the front-row are starting to dominate and win against the head. Andrea Lo Cicero has replaced Castrogiovanni in case you were wondering.
37 min: O'Gara is penalised for not rolling away after a tackle on Ghiraldini and Italy have a chance to level things. Again.
PENALTY MISSED! Mirco Bergamasco's kick looks good but, just like O'Gara's earlier, comes back off the upright and Ireland pounce on the loose ball.
40 min: A huge push from the Italians and Ireland are penalised once again. Mauro Bergamasco gives Cian Healy a few digs in the process. It's worth it as far as Healy is concerned as Kaplan reverses his decision, denying Italy a certain three points and Ireland gleefully kick to touch.
Half time: Ireland 9-6 Italy. Ireland lead at the interval. Just. It's tense, scrappy and unrelenting. Was it ever going to be any other way?
Half-time emails: "It has to be said, Italy are very much second division cheats compared with the skill of England and NZ or indeed the panache of France" says Neil Connolly who is looking after baby Ébha. "Ireland to win by 7 I reckon." Just keep an eye on your child and leave the predictions to others, Ok?
"Kaplan??? Really???? Again???" screams David Boland who hasn't forgotten the original 'ballgate'. "After Wales, and now after Tommy Bowe, do you think Jonathan Kaplan is going to apologise to Ireland?" No is the answer to that.
"Dude," says someone so laid back he's known only as Phil. "Keep the minute-by-minute update going as quick as you can: I am stuck at work but I can hear the shouts and cheers of people watching in a nearby pub! They're probably cheering for Ireland but we're in Hong Kong so who knows?"
And, finally, Niall Larkin has learned his lesson. "That's a fair point from Browne, consider me de-piping (?) - but I would like to add I'd give some kind of body organ not to have to put up with ITV's commentary." Just as long as it's not your liver. I've heard some bad things about your drinking.
Peep!! We're underway again. Italy have made a change: Riccardo Bocchino is on at fly-half in place of Luciano Orquera.
42 min: Excellent start from Ireland who build the phases and O'Connell and Ferris gain ground. They put the Italians under so much pressure they're forced into conceding a penalty.
PENALTY! IRELAND 12-6 Italy. Another precision kick from O'Gara and Ireland have a bit of daylight on the scoreboard.
44 min: O'Brien has been immense today - even by his standards. He goes on another big charge from the restarts and Italy are penalised again. O'Gara clears upfield and Ireland go again from the line-out. Ferris and O'Brien (again) make ground before it's flung back for O'Gara who tried a drop goal but skews his effort wide of the left-hand post.
CONVERTED TRY!!! IRELAND 19-6 Italy. Brian O'Driscoll crosses after a great break, first from D'Arcy and then Bowe. O'Driscoll's anticipation was, well, as good as you would expect and Italy can't get close to the Irish skipper. O'Gara slots over a simple conversion.
49 min: It's getting worse for Italy. Mauro Bergamasco is off and Paul Derbyshire is on. And to rub salt into the Italian wounds they now have to listen to the Irish fans sing 'ole, ole, ole'.
49 min: It's all going Ireland's way. The Italians are losing discipline and I think Niall Larkin can book his seat in the boozer for dawn next Saturday.
50 min: Great break once again from Gordon D'Arcy and Ireland are going for the line ...
TRY! IRELAND 24-6 Italy. Brilliant try from Keith Earls in the corner after collecting a pass from Ferris. It's Earls's birthday too. He's 24. That's nice. I was 24 once. Didn't make the most of it.
CONVERSION! IRELAND 26-6 Italy. Another precision kick from O'Gara. There's nothing wrong with kicking in this stadium. Do you hear that Jonny Wilkinson? Sean Cronin is on for the injured Rory Best.
55 min: The word on the touchline is that Rory Best is having ice applied to his collarbone and, according to ITV, "it doesn't look good". It looks good on the pitch as Kearney tries to cross in the corner. I don't think he grounds the ball but Kaplan sends it to the video ref to check.
No Try. The video ref confirms what we suspected and so Ireland have the put-in at the scrum five metres from the Italian line. Italy win against the head and Lo Cicero boots clear. "I think I will name my next son Ronan. Especially if O'Gara keeps kicking like that," says Allie in New Zealand. Do whatever you like.
57 min: Ireland look dangerous with every attack and O'Brien is delivering a monstrous performance when it was really needed. Surely some of you should name your children after him? Paul O'Connell's evening is over and he gets a standing ovation.
59 min: O'Brien once again breaks the gain line before O'Driscoll tries an unnecessary chip forward which squanders possession. "We are in Palermo in a really nice hotel and not one of the stations is broadcasting the match," says Niamh Murphy. "Disgusted. Thank goodness for your coverage." Thank goodness, indeed.
63 min: Italy are struggling to gain advantage with or without the ball. Perugini squares up to Cian Healy who has had a bust night practising the dark arts of the front row. And by 'dark arts' I mean having your eyes gouged and being repeatedly punched in the face.
66 min: Ireland are so comfortable there's even time for a comedy fall from Earls who attempts to kick-on after O'Driscoll chipped forward but stubs his toe in the ground and sends himself flying head first over the ball into the turf. Comedy gold. Jonathan Sexton is on for Ronan O'Gara, who can be pleased with his night's work. Pretty, pretty pleased as Larry David might say.
68 min: Who would be a Ronan? Mr Browne writes: "Perhaps if ROG keeps kicking like that people in London will greet me with 'Ronan, like Ronan O Gara?' rather than Ronan, like Ronan Keating?'... Life, indeed is like a roller-coaster." Little-known fact: Ronan Keating's Rollercoaster is one of Sir Clive Woodward's Desert Island Discs. That says it all really.
PENALTY! IRELAND 29-6 Italy. Jonathan Sexton has obviously been watching O'Gara and makes no mistake with the penalty. The Ireland fans may as well get in their camper vans and head for Wellington right now. Except that there's some drinking to be done in Dunedin tonight. I've been to Dunedin. I saw penguins.
72 min: O'Brien concedes a penalty and Edoardo Gori taps and goes for the line but the Irish defence stands firm and wins possession. Great defensive work. "I'm (quietly) following the match from the library at the Australian National University," whoispers Anna Fhiannachta. "My essay on nuclear deterrence during the Cold War has been utterly abandoned and the pub beckons. Cheers for the coverage!" Maybe if everyone reading this sends in a quick paragraph on nuclear deterrence you can get the essay done in the next seven minutes?
73 min: Ireland changes: Lots of people go off, lots of people come on. One of those going off is Conor Murray who has produced a big performance on what is probably the biggest night of his life so far.
77 min: Italy are pushing for a consolation try but the Irish are not feeling generous. You're are Googling nuclear deterrence in the Cold War, aren't you? Thomas Plunkett certainly is: "Nuclear deterrence = Sean O'Brien."
77 min: Have you ever seen a load of pigeons fighting over a piece of bread? Well that's what the game is like at the moment.
TRY! OR IS IT? Tommy Bowe goes on a Damien Duff style run (circa 2002) as he kicks the ball upfield. he's not able to touch down but is pulled back and it could (and should) be a penalty try. Patrick Cullen has written his essay: "The idea of nuclear deterrence is MAD. There you are, done, go to the pub..."
NO TRY! There was no foul play in the build-up says the video referee. I think there was.
TRY! IRELAND 34-6 Italy. Ireland aren't denied for along as Earls gets his second on his birthday, crossing in the corner after good work from Trimble.
CONVERSION! IRELAND 36-6 Italy Sexton makes no mistake. If he's kicked like this in the earlier games he would still be in the team.
FULL TIME: IRELAND 36-6 ITALY. Ireland win Pool C and will play Wales in the quarter final next Saturday in Wellington.
Post-match emails: Fiona Sasse is questioning my penguin-spotting ability. "Just wondering have you actually been to Dunedin? I live there and I'm fairly sure we don't have penguins, perhaps you have confused Dunedin with Antartica?" I think you'll find that the yellow-eyed penguin bloody loves it in Dunedin.
Ireland progress with little fuss. They got a little bit of luck with Italian injuries and indiscipline playing into their hands but Ireland took their chances and cruised to victory in the end thanks to an immense second half display. Sean O'Brien may well be still standing on the pitch, beating his bare chest shouting 'Is that all you've got?'
"Well that was all stress-free, wasn't it?" says Niall Larkin. I don't know. We worried about your drinking for quite a while. That's it from me. Thanks for all your emails. Bye.
