And then there were four, but will there be 20 again in 2011? The International Rugby Board this week fudged the issue of whether there would be 16 or a score of finalists in New Zealand in four years, but a decision is expected by the end of next month when the Board's chairman, Syd Millar, who is in favour of the cull, gives way to Bernard Lapasset, who is not.

The hosts, having bid for five pools of four, want the number reduced to 16, but only if it is allowed to reformat the tournament so that more than 32 matches are played. The man in charge of the next World Cup, Martin Snedden, has reiterated his belief that 16 is the way forward. "Some of the things that have happened in France have evened up the argument more than I was expecting, but hand on heart I still prefer 16 because the quality of rugby would be better," he said.

"We have developed a 16-team format that would see 40-odd matches played. We are not revealing how the tournament would look, but Rugby World Cup has guaranteed that if the number of finalists is reduced, it will back our plan. We have found a model that improves the quality and competitiveness of pool play. I can't say what it is, but it does improve the quality of play quite significantly. We have said either option is fine with us."

After New Zealand's failure to reach the semi-finals, perhaps the plan involves abandoning the knock-out stages and having two pools of eight with the winners of each meeting in the final, even if it would provide 50-odd matches! "If RWC goes to 16 teams it must be in conjunction with a qualifying tournament which is far superior to what is in place at present," said Snedden. "If they do those two things then I feel 16 teams is the right option."

For the New Zealand Rugby Union maybe, but not for the global game. Argentina's opening-night victory over France had an El Nino effect on the tournament, the sport's version of climate change. It disrupted the old order and reverting to 16 finalists should not be an option, never mind what new format has been dreamed up. The trouble with rugby union is that it remains a conservative sport: the IRB has been banging on about the need for Argentina to be admitted into the Tri-Nations or the Six Nations, but has it said anything about giving the Argentine union (UAR) an extra vote on the Board's council to bring it in line with the eight foundation unions? Not a word. Italy have been in the Six Nations for seven years and its union still only has one vote. Based on France's experience, it only has 70 years to go.

There is a New Zealand sidebar. Their head coach Graham Henry's position has been the subject of confusion this week after the quarter-final defeat to France. He has not resigned nor has he been sacked. There is no apparently about anything: he is still in charge. The question is for how much longer. The NZRU chief executive Chris Moller said there was still a chance Henry would be kept on after his contract ended next March. Moller said that comments made by the union's chairman Jock Hobbs that a new coach would be in place by Christmas had been "misinterpreted".

And so to the semi-finals the All Blacks will not be enriching. England and France open up having each lost one match to the teams who play in the following day's semi-final. No team which has lost a game in the pool stage has ever gone on to win the trophy, which given the image-shattering nature of this tournament means that whoever prevails between England and France should go on to lift the pot.

England and France will be meeting for the fourth time this year. They are evenly matched: the French have home advantage, but that was not much use against Argentina and the question to be answered is how much their victory over New Zealand took out of them. The two boast the oldest squads in the tournament and the main difference between them lies on the bench. France look better equipped to play catch-up and England cannot afford a slow start.

South Africa and Argentina has the potential to be a fist-fest with both sides talking up the physical nature of their games. The winner, and South Africa are the team the Pumas would probably have least liked to face at this stage because of their grizzled front five and two high-quality flankers, will probably need more than six days to pick themselves up for the final. Cunning plan of France's to lose the opening game.