It should be a time of absolute clarity. In a World Cup year there is no time for reconstruction or experimentation. Everything should be in place. The Six Nations should be a dress rehearsal.
But nothing is clear in five of the six nations. Ireland can afford to dream a little, with visits from both England and France to Croke Park, their temporary home in Dublin, that might make a permanent 85,000-strong impression on the tournament. But they have been touted before, and failed to deliver.
I suppose it's not hard to see Italy holding up the table. Their clubs have lost their way in Europe. But that is because all their best players are with foreign clubs. Marco Bortolami, for example, is with Gloucester and playing out of his skin. If Pierre Berbizier can unite the far-flung elements of the Italian diaspora, he may yet produce the surprise package of the year.
France are all over the place, knocked about by club-and-country politics that make England's seem trivial. What is worse, in the autumn, a year before the World Cup in their own land, they opted for a style of kick and rush against the All Blacks. And succeeded only in looking about 20 years out of date.
Much of the general confusion stems from the injury lists that each coach must read through his fingers on a Monday morning. France's captain, Fabien Pelous will miss the start. The wayward Frederic Michalak, in need of games, is out for the whole campaign.
Injuries have always been, ha ha, a pain, but suddenly rugby has to develop squads deep enough to cope with casualties at an unprecedented rate. Scotland in particular are in bits, simply because a rest for the best is not an option. The loss of Jason White and the long-term absence of Allister Hogg in a country where the back-row is the beginning and the end, the heart and the soul of every strategy and tactic, will be keenly felt.
And when you lose two top-class scrum-halfs, Mike Blair and Chris Cusiter, you might be forgiven for thinking that a long-standing record can wait another two years to be broken. If Scotland were at full-strength - a compound word fast disappearing from the rugby lexicon - they would be licking their lips at the prospect of breaking their 23-year drought at Twickenham.
As things stand, however, England's opening games offer them as comfortable an introduction to World Cup year as it is possible to have: Scotland and Italy at home on consecutive Saturdays. It is about their first stroke of luck since they sent for Mike Catt at half time in the 2003 World Cup quarter-final against Wales, and a player best known for being as reliable as a watch hit by a hammer became a model of authority
Catt is still around, as is the bloke whose nerves he helped settle back then. Jonny Wilkinson. Yes, and what's more, seen at the heart of the England three-quarters in training, issuing orders here and advice there...
But no. Let's not even go there. The most injured player in an injury-riddled era is a picture of health, touch wood. But he needs time, not stress.
And yet, you can't help thinking that if Wilkinson and Andy Farrell ever teamed up at 10 and 12 for England, the road to recovery might quickly become a fast track to all sorts of spooky expectations. Like a World Cup defence. Again, let's not get ahead of ourselves.
It needs the new coach, Brian Ashton, to keep all this in perspective. All he is promising is 'no bullshit rugby'. That is pure wisdom, given England's past three years.
Wales are politically unruffled at the moment. This puts them in uncharted waters. Anything could happen. It was interesting to see Gareth Jenkins at the Hurlingham Club in west London on Wednesday morning. Having been through an autumn campaign with Wales and having seen the media mob on the Lions tour of 2005, he was still startled by the size of the scrum at the Six Nations launch. We were there in our hundreds. The Six Nations has grown.
So much depends on Wales's first game. England have the luck of the draw; Wales have Ireland. They have home advantage but this is a beast of a starter. Wales are devoted to a high-risk game - if Ashton is warning against bullshit rugby, Wales are rather drawn to it - and if it comes off, with James Hook forming a creative bond with Stephen Jones and Dwayne Peel, they could sweep all before them as they did in the freak year of 2005.
But Wales need a break in that first game, just as they had against England in 2005. Ireland may not be so accommodating. They are not clear favourites for the title for nothing.
If Ireland maintain their form in the meltdown conditions of the Six Nations, they will win it. Not perhaps with a grand slam, but worthily. There. A clear prediction. Stand by for it to turn to mush.
Guide to the teams
England
It looks as if England will go for experience up in the front five, as a sort of safety net to offset the introduction of Andy Farrell in midfield and the loss of a back-three trio, Jason Robinson, Paul Sackey and Mark Cueto, to injury. That should mean lots of ball, even if it arrives a bit slowly. England need a specialist No 7, with Magnus Lund back in the frame. Will Martin Corry give way to Bristol's Dan Ward-Smith, or did his performance for Leicester against Munster persuade Brian Ashton otherwise? Harry Ellis and Toby Flood as half-backs? It wouldn't be dull.
Probable XV Lewsey; Balshaw, Tindall, Farrell, Tait; Flood, Ellis; Freshwater, Chuter, Vickery (capt), Grewcock, Palmer, Moody, Lund, Ward-Smith
Italy
Up front, Italy will be as awkward as ever. There is no more painful experience in the European game than finding the Italian pack thundering all over you. But the old problems persist: what to do with all that beautiful ball? Italy can be a menace to themselves when in possession. Either they kick the ball away and go into defensive mode, where they are comfortable. Scrum...#8209;half Paul Griffen is a master of the defensive arts. Or they try to develop a more penetrative running game. Not sure if Ramiro Pez, or anyone in the squad, can manage that, although Gonzalo Canale may well blossom.
Probable XV Bortolussi; Stanojevic, Mirco Bergamasco, Canale, Robertson; Pez, Griffen; Perugini, Ongaro, Nieto, Bortolami (capt), Dellape, Sole, Mauro Bergamasco, Parisse
France
Coach Bernard Laporte has made noises, as he usually does, about treating the Six Nations as some sort of training ground. For what? If he does not manage to find any rhythm or consistency in the five matches ahead, he can forget about even being competitive at the World Cup. France need to find a style that suits them. It doesn't have to be extravagant, but it does have to involve more risk than the woefully outdated offerings of the autumn. With every piece of modern engineering at their disposal, France tried to bring down the All Blacks with a medieval battering ram.
Probable XV Brusque; Rougerie, Fritz, Jauzion, Clerc; Traille, Yachvili; Marconnet, Ibanez (capt), De Villiers, Thion, Pape, Betsen, Dusautoir, Bonnaire
Ireland
Does he go for Geordan Murphy or Girvan Dempsey at full-back? Who replaces the injured Shane Horgan? That's about it. Eddie O'Sullivan is not faced with the pile of questions that challenge the tournament's other coaches. Ireland are full of promise, and determined to get it right this time. Could be a recipe for disaster, or it could push them to the forefront of the northern-hemisphere order. No new faces; no need to bed anyone in. Odd-number years suit them, too - they play France and England at home. Croke Park is about the only new thing we shall see. Well worth a visit.
Probable XV Dempsey; Trimble, O'Driscoll, D'Arcy, Hickie; O'Gara, Stringer; Horan, Best, Hayes, O'Callaghan, O'Connell, Easterby, Wallace, Leamy
Wales
A crazy element often upsets any logical analysis. Who'd have thought, for example, that Gareth Thomas would get himself cited for inflammatory behaviour in the Trevor Brennan affair? OK, OK cancel that. But anything could happen. The odds are that they will be very good, with James Hook (right) a star. But there is also a possibility that they will lose at home in the first game to Ireland and never recover.
Probable XV Morgan; Thomas, Evans, Hook, Czecaj; S Jones (capt), Peel; D Jones, Thomas, A Jones, Gough, Sidoli, Charvis, Williams, Jones
Scotland
As long as Scotland kept their back row and scrum...#8209;halfs intact there was every chance they would maintain the good work of last season, when they beat France and England at Murrayfield. No sooner said than down went Jason White and Allister Hogg, Mike Blair and Chris Cusiter. Even if two of the four - White and Blair are out for some while - recover in time to face England in the opening game, they will have played precious little rugby. On the other hand, Scotland will still play at a tempo that may throw a jittery England off balance. Beware dismissing Frank Hadden's team as no-hopers.
Probable XV Paterson (capt); Lamont, Di Rollo, Henderson, Webster; Parks, Lawson; Kerr, Hall, Douglas, Murray, Kellock, Taylor, Brown, Beattie
