There is no such thing as a post-World Cup hangover for English clubs in the Heineken Cup. In 2000 and 2004 the bookmakers, as now, fancied the big French clubs with their bevy of global stars back from national service. Instead Northampton and Wasps sneaked off with the winners' medals, establishing a trend which has a very good chance of continuing.
Genuine contenders such as Stade Français, Toulouse and the Ospreys will dismiss this nagging little statistic as mere coincidence. All of them possess great players, large squads, experienced coaches and not the slightest hint of an inferiority complex. Sadly for them the ultimate European club prize is not won by such qualities alone. Without fail it comes down to unquenchable team spirit and desire, forged in the crucible of intense weekly commitment. In that department the English clubs have precious few equals.
And so, on the eve of the 13th edition of the tournament which has redefined northern hemisphere rugby, it is up to the French, the Welsh, the Irish et al to stop the likes of Leicester, not the other way round. Even a club like Stade, with their seemingly limitless playing reserves, have serious practical hurdles to overcome. Because of the World Cup the French Top 14 has started later than usual and even the heavyweight clubs have had little time to knit together. The subsequent fixture jam has resulted in several midweek fixtures and by the time the French championship final is played on June 28 everyone else will be watching Wimbledon. To the players the end of the season seems as far away as never-never land. If they start slowly, it will be harder than ever to claw their way back.
As Lawrence Dallaglio has also been stressing, Heineken Cups are won by teams who gather in strength over the latter furlongs. This makes life harder for the Welsh and Irish sides because the Magners League, for all its virtues, does not seem to prepare its representatives for the European run-in as successfully as the Guinness Premiership. Munster provided an exception to the rule two years ago, only to be blown away in the quarter-finals last season by Llanelli Scarlets. Irish forward play, for reasons still unanswered, has never really recovered.
The boys from the emerald isle may struggle again, even if Munster, Ulster and Leinster upset Wasps, Gloucester and Leicester respectively on a first weekend of significant Anglo-Irish interest. The Heineken Cup is not a sprint and the pressure, in many ways, is on Ulster and Leinster to avoid a damaging early home defeat. The imbalance of this year's pool stages has already been much discussed and Ireland's representatives have been as unlucky as anyone. It is particularly difficult to foresee Ulster, rock bottom of the Celtic League, finishing ahead of Gloucester and the Ospreys. Munster, with the builders updating Thomond Park, will deserve to win the whole shooting match if they see off the Scarlets, Wasps and Clermont Auvergne in Pool Five.
All of which leads us back to the English midlands. The Leicester chairman, Peter Tom, says the Tigers "aspire to be the best club side in the world" and the hiring of Marcelo Loffreda backs up that mission statement. The clear hope is that the Puma connection will assist the signing of Juan Martín Hernández next year and Leicester look stronger than the team who nearly did the treble last season. They have 22 registered internationals in their Heineken squad and the list of useful fringe candidates - Jim Hamilton, Ayoola Erinle, Ollie Smith, Jordan Crane, Tom Croft, Richard Blaze, Benjamin Kayser, Christophe Laussucq and Mefin Davies - is almost as daunting as the presence of the All Black Aaron Mauger, Seru Rabeni and Alex Tuilagi in the same back division.
How they all fit under the Premiership salary cap is one of life's mysteries but, like Wasps, Leicester rarely fail to maximise their resources. The equally well-stocked French clubs cannot say the same. With the exception of Vincent Clerc's try at Croke Park last season, when was the last time a top French team won a major cross-border fixture by being psychologically stronger at the climax? As the World Cup showed, sides who kick well, hang tough and hit hard at the breakdown can go far. This year there are seven English sides in the 24-team field, four of them from the home counties. A seventh Premiership winner in 11 seasons is not just wishful thinking.
It is true that the improving Ospreys and Stade have the talent to reach the last four and Biarritz and Clermont, boasting a hefty percentage of the 198 World Cup players registered for the tournament, should make some headway. But do not be surprised if Leicester, last season's beaten finalists, go one better in Cardiff in May.
