Samoa couldn't, could they? Probably not, but if they can somehow put the Springboks under pressure early on there could be a few people choking on their leek-based muesli in the valleys. The list of possible outcomes in Pool D are more convoluted than an Ed Miliband manifesto so there's no point filling up your brain-box with meandering preambles when there's some serious working out to be done. So ...

Here are the permutations in Pool D

If Wales win on Sunday against Fiji and Samoa lose or draw then Wales will finish second.

Is Samoa win and Wales lose or draw then Samoa will qualify for the quarter-finals.

If Samoa win and both they and South Africa fail to claim a bonus point it would leave South Africa and Samoa level on 14 points. If Wales claim a bonus point against Fiji they would win the pool with 15 points with Samoa second courtesy of their better head-to-head with South Africa. If Wales beat Fiji but failed to claim a bonus point all three sides would have 14 points so the pool would be decided on points difference which would not be great for Samoa.

If Samoa win with a bonus point and South Africa gain a bonus point in defeat they would both have 15 points. Wales would then need a bonus point victory over Fiji to decide the group on points difference otherwise Samoa would top the group from South Africa courtesy of a the head-to-head record.

Got that? Thought so. Here are the teams for today's game ...

South Africa: 15 Pat Lambie; 14 JP Pietersen, 13 Jaque Fourie, 12 Frans Steyn, 11 Bryan Habana; 10 Morné Steyn, 9 Fourie Du Preez; 8 Pierre Spies, 7 Schalk Burger, 6 Heinrich Brüssow, 5 Victor Matfield (c), 4 Danie Rossouw, 3 Jannie Du Plessis, 2 Bismarck Du Plessis, 1 Tendai Mtawarira.

Replacements: 16 John Smit, 17 Gurthrö Steenkamp, 18 CJ van der Linde, 19 Willem Alberts, 20 Francois Louw, 21 Francois Hougaard, 22 Jean De Villiers.

Samoa: 15 Paul Williams; 14 David Lemi, 13 Seilala Mapusua, 12 Eliota Fuimaono-Sapolu, 11 Alesana Tuilagi; 10 Tusi Pisi, 9 Kahn Fotuali'i; 8 George Stowers, 7 Maurie Faasavalu, 6 Taiasina Tuifua, 5 Kane Thompson, 4 Daniel Leo, 3 Census Johnston, 2 Mahonri Schwalger (c), 1 Sakaria Taulafo.

Replacements: 16 Ole Avei, 17 Anthony Perenise, 18 Logovi'i Mulipola, 19 Ofisa Treviranus, 20 Filipo Lavea Levi, 21 Junior Poluleuligaga, 22 George Pisi.

The man with the whistle who has left his national pride in the dressing room: Nigel Owens (Wales)

Goggle-box update If you are watching Daybreak and wondering where the rugby is, it's on ITV4. If you are watching Judge Judy and wondering where the rugby is, it's on ITV4. If you are watching Dickinson's Real Deal and wondering where the rugby is, it's on ITV4. All these shows are more important in the ITV hierarchy than this match. I can understand Judge Judy but the other two are ridiculous.

But it's Samoa's World Cup hopes that go under the hammer this morning.* Is there any love out there for the Samoans?

* See previous entry for bad joke reference.

The Guardian MBM GPS has the players on the pitch awaiting the national anthems. That GPS must be good because that's to the miracle of television pictures I can confirm that that's exactly where they are.

Samoan national anthem review Four stars. A hit! More operatic than you might imagine. Those boys are in touch with their feminine side.

South Africa national anthem review. Solid. Dependable. A must-see.

The spread on condescending statements about Samoa from the ITV commentary team is 164-180. We've had about four already and we haven't even kicked off.

Here comes the siva tau - the new black in the fashion parade that is Rugby World Cup pre-match dances. It's a good one. Short, sharp, threatening, all the things you want from a pre-match dance. I do think all the teams should be made to dance before the game. I'd like to see Paul O'Connell do an Irish jib or Mike Tindall embark on some Morris Dancing.

Peeep!! Nigel Owens blows his whistle and Samoa, in blue, kick off playing from right to left. South Africa are all in white.

1 min: South Africa nearly make a perfect start as Habana spectacularly leaps to get on the end of and up-and-under. They roll through the phases before Morne Steyn tries a drop goal which drifts just wide of the left-hand post. "I saw David Dickinson in Dublin once, wearing his usual chalkstripe suit and smoking a cigar," writes former colleague Robin Lynch. "My girlfriend at the time wanted to get a picture with him and he agreed. I was fannying around with the camera and he said out of the corner of his mouth, through broad smile and fat cigar and with his arm around my girlfriend, "Hurry the f**k up". I admired his professionalism."

3 min: A good response from the Samoans as Census Johnston barges through about eight men. He's then penalised and South Africa have a penalty. It's in their own half but they elect to kick for goal nonetheless. It's a beast of a kick from Steyn but it crashes off the crossbar and we remain scoreless.

7 min: Matfield is dominating the line-out already taking two crisp catches to allow the South African pack to roll their way up the pitch.

TRY! SOUTH AFRICA 5-0 Samoa (Bryan Habana) A wonderful try for Habana as South Africa tore through the Samoan defence as if they weren't there. They worked the ball to Habana on the left wing - he fumbled slightly but gathered at the second attempt and made it across the line with a diving leap. It's sent to the video ref but the replay shows his legs were about eight-feet in the air as the ball was touched down.

CONVERSION! SOUTH AFRICA 7-0 Samoa Morne Steyn knocks over the extra points from the touchline and the Boks have the lead their start deserves.

12 min: Great response from Samoa as they roll through the phases with some clean, crisp handling and reach the South Africa line. Once again they are penalised, however, and the Springboks have a penalty. Mahonri Schwalger is not happy with Nigel Owens's decision and the penalty is moved forward 10 yards for dissent.

15 min: Poor handling from Jannie Du Plessis gives Samoa the put-in just when South Africa looked like they were going to carve through the Samoan defence.

19 min: There's a bit of a kerfuffle which is described as being "a bit fruity" by the ITV commentators which is not exactly how I would call it. A bit terrifying might do it justice as Schalk Burger and Mahonri Schwalger square up. In the end, after consultation with his touch judge, Nigel Owens has a word with Jannie Du Plessis for slapping Schwalger. Replays show that it was really Schwalger who threw the first slap. Slapping. Is this what it's come to? It's like we're in a Sarah Jessica Parker film.

22 min: Morne Steyn kicks deep into the Samoa 22 but fails to finds touch. Paul Williams returns with interest and finds a good touch. Again Matfield leaps and shows his dominance in the line-out - a real area of strength for the Springboks - and Samoa are penalised giving Frans Steyn a difficult kick at goal.

PENALTY! SOUTH AFRICA 10-0 Samoa It's a monster kick from Steyn who is in his own half and on the right touchline. He has the sizeable benefit of a strong breeze and even with that it only just creeps over the crossbar. That's how far out he was.

25 min: Samoa are losing their cool now. They're pack is being dominated and frustration is coming out. Kane Thompson comes round the side of a maul and then throws a punch, Nigel Owens awards the penalty but decides against a yellow card - preferring to give captain Mahonri Schwalger a warning.

PENALTY! SOUTH AFRICA 13-0 Samoa This time it's Morne Steyn on kicking duty - he's 60 metres out and dead centre and duly makes no mistake. South Africa are pulling away now. They were cheap points to give away.

31 min: Samoa are really struggling to make an impact now. Every time they attempt to move forward they end up being penalised - this time they're punished for wheeling the scrum. It's 65 metres from goal but Frans Steyn is going to go for goal. Even with the wins the kick doesn't carry but Samoa have to try and work their way up the pitch again.

36 min: If you like long, laborious attempts to get a scrum set this part of the game is for you. I don't know why they bother - South Africa are going to win it anyway. They've won every single one of their put-ins in this tournament so far. They launch another swift attack getting it wide to Habana but he's held up by Maurie Faasavalu and then Fourie Du Preez knocks-on to give the Samoans some breathing space.

38 min: A good break upfield from Samoa with Seilala Mapusua heavily involved, particularly with a great pick-up of a bouncing ball. Alesana Tuilagi makes some ground too before Samoa are turned over, somewhat predictably, and South Africa clear their lines. Tuilagi picks up tries a little chip and run in his own 22 and is slightly fortunate to get away with it. Samoa don't need to concede any more stupid points before half-time.

40 min: Samoa's best chance of the half comes with the last action. Fotuali'i breaks down the right before passing inside to Mapusua who runs out of options, tries an ambitious reverse pass inside and a promising attack comes to a flat end.

Half time: South Africa 13-0 Samoa. Good half for South Africa. Good half for Wales.

Half-time adverts courtesy of the Brazilian rugby team.

Half-time emails courtesy of Gary Naylor and Robin Lynch ...

"I'm sure that I heard Nigel Owens summarising a match for Talksport last week (and doing it rather well)," writes Naylor. "Are refs in the Rugby World Cup not bound by the omerta that silences football (okay soccer) refs? A good thing, methinks." It as a good thing, but I'm not sure we want to hear Phil Dowd's views on anything, do we? Plus I imagine football refs would see any extra media exposure as a gateway to shows like Strictly Come Dancing. I have no basis for this - just a hunch.

"So Samoa are getting soundly beaten," writes Robin Lynch. "Massive shock. There's been a lot of wild talk of permutations and bonus points over the last few days, with Welsh, Irish and English fans getting in an awful funk about not reaching the quarters. I think all these teams will qualify with room to spare. Any thoughts?" I agree, though I think Ireland v Italy on Sunday may well be a close run thing. They love a bit of anxiety do the Irish.

Peep!!!! We're underway again. Can Samoa take advantage of the wind and fight their way back? I think we all know the answer to that.

41 min: "I'll never make a hooker and you'll never make a referee. Let me do my job" Nigel Owens to Mahonri Schwalger in the first half. I wonder what gems like this we're missing from football referees?

43 min: Bryan Habana is in the wars in the opening minutes of the half. First he gets some treatment after a collision with a Samoan. Then, moments later, he crashes into the advertising hoarding. Neither cause too much damage to the brilliant winger. "You write: 'South Africa national anthem review. Solid. Dependable. A must-see.'" writes Paul Murphy, an Englishman in Cape Town, which sounds like it should be the title of a novel. "You have obviously missed the various recent mix-ups then the most recent being at the Boks send off. But these definitely make it a must-see." I obviously have because I don't know what you're talking about.

46 min: The first change of the game and it's Habana who is coming off, presumably as a precaution after that injury. Francois Hougaard is on. Not a bad replacement. There's some signs of joy in this second half. They win penalties after a good performance in a scrum on their five metre line and then in a maul on halfway. Unlike South Africa they elect to kick for touch and make some ground.

49 min: Willem Alberts is on now for Danie Rossouw who limps towards the dressing room. South Africa could do without picking up any injuries. That aim isn't helped as Taiasina Tuifua picks up the ball and steamrolls Francois Hougaard - the Samoans right-knee crashed into the South African's face. He looks flat out for a few seconds but picks himself up. He's bleeding, so will have to go off, but looks in better shape than it initially looked.

TRY! South Africa 13-5 SAMOA A wonderful try for George Stowers after some Samoan passing that was sailing pretty close to the wind. It looked as if they were about to knock-on three or four times in the move but they kept the ball alive and the big No8 bundled over. The conversion is missed so there's still two scores in it.

52 min: A let-off for Samoa as they give away a stupid penalty from the restart but Steyn's kick gets caught in the wind and fails to even reach the posts. "So, all the hype for an upset and in reality I see Samoa are getting steamrollered," writes Guy Hornsby moments before Stowers's try. "I say 'see' but as ITV have stuck this on ITV4 I couldn't watch any of it with breakfast at work. Yes, this could've been one of the more enthralling encounters of the tournament so far, and instead we're stuck with Adrian Chiles' waxwork-left-in-the-sun visage when we could've been watching sixteen stone South Sea Islanders knocking lumps out of the South African back line. And people wonder why everyone hates ITV."

56 min: Game on now. It's a brilliant break from David Lemi who weaves through the South Africa defence. It takes a diving, last-ditch tackle from Pat Lambie to deny the Samoan winger, who is then penalised for holding on the ground.

59 min: This is just going to be Samoa's 'spirited' period of the game before they get brushed aside in the final 15 minutes, isn't it? Even so they are making a decent stab at it and it takes another good leap and catch from Lambie, and some tough-love in defence from South Africa to hold Samoa up. The balls turned over and South Africa boot upfield and Seilala Mapusua is forced to swipe into touch on his own five metre line. All that hard work for nowt, as they say in Samoa.

60 min: South Africa are over the line with the ball and it's sent to the video referee to see if it's a try. There was a pile of bodies with Bismarck Du Plessis the ball-carrier somewhere in the middle. None of the replays provide conclusive evidence that the ball is grounded and so the the referee says 'No Try' and it's a South Africa scrum on the five-metre line.

61 min: Good defence from Samoa and Frans Steyn is forced into a loose and careless pass which goes forward and Samoa have a chance to clear their lines. Meanwhile, if you like loud fire drills, you should be sitting where I am.

62 min: Jannie Du Plessis is penalised for being off his feet in the ruck. It's in the Samoan half but will give them a chance to mount an attack. How are the nerves in Wales?

64 min: Eliota Fuimaono-Sapolu dances through the South Africa defence but is held up by Pietersen. Williams then clips a little kick to the right touchline where Mapusua tries to kick on but instead catches Lambie with a late Nigel De Jong-esque tackle. Samoa comes again from the line-out. They're on the line.

66 min: Fantastic break from Lemi who is held up on the line. Mahonri Schwalger picks up and attempts to bundle his way over but cruelly for Samoa it slips from his grasp and it's a knock on. Nigel Owens checks with the video ref if the ball was grounded before the knock-on. It wasn't. South Africa scrum.

68 min: John Smit comes on for South Africa to equal the record number of World Cup appearances for a South African. "What part of wait don't you understand?" Nigel Owens asks a Samoan. ITV reveal that Owens is indeed a stand-up comedian back home in Wales. I hope his jokes are better than that.

69 min: Paul Williams is sent off. He was hanging on to Heinrich Brüssow who was repeatedly punching the Samoan's arm to try and free himself. Williams stands up and throws his hand into the Springbok flankers face and, after consultation with the touch judge, shows Williams a red card.

70 min: John Smit is show a yellow card so it's 14 v 14 for the final 10 minutes. It was a deliberate knock-on as he stuck his arm in the way of a Samoan pass. Smit is furious but Owens had no choice really. It's not the most distinguished record-equalling appearance from Smit.

73 min: This is frantic stuff now. Logovi'i Mulipola makes a lung-bursting burst through the South Africa defence before appearing to clip his own heels and falls to the ground. Jean De Villiers launches a devastating counter weaving through four tackles before he too is brought to the ground. "Very sad to see Brussow staying down after a little push in the face," writes Nath Jones. "That's the second time I've noticed some football-style play-acting this tournament - it needs to be cut out."

75 min: South Africa roll through the phases and reach the Samoan line. Burger tries to break through but Fuimaono-Sapolu seems to lift the South Africa flanker and throw him away. Samoa clear their lines but give away a penalty on halfway and the clock just keeps on ticking, which it does for all of us, I suppose, but it's probably best not to think about that.

78 min: Some unorthodox rugby here from Samoa - Tuilagi just headed a pass to Mapusua. It's effective, though, as they move for the line in search of the bonus point that would put some pressure on Wales on Sunday. They lose the ball, however, and that could be that.

Full time: South Africa 13-5 Samoa. The Springboks win after overcoming a 'brave and spirited' Samoan display. Was it ever going to be any other way?

What does the result mean? South Africa have won the group and will play the runner-up in Pool C (Ireland, Australia or Italy) in the quarter-final in Wellington on Sunday 9 October. Provided Wales don't lose more than 61 points against Fiji on Sunday then they will progress as runners-up and play the winner of Pool C (Ireland, Australia or Italy). If Fiji win by 62 points or more then they will finish second. Samoa go home.

Conclusion. Not a vintage South African display but it was good enough in the end and means we could well have a South Africa v Australia quarter-final which will be fun. Samoa can go home feeling that if the fixture list hadn't conspired against them they could well have reached the knockout stages. Thanks for all your emails. Bye.