There will be many questions asked in the next 24 hours about just what kind of team the French coach, Marc Lièvremont, will name to face Wales on Saturday, with victory in the Six Nations still in theory attainable. The speculation will be intense because of the huge 20-point victory margin France need if they are to win the championship against a Wales side that have kept growing in confidence since the end of the first half at Twickenham a month ago.

But speculation about Lièvremont's selections is nothing new. Every Tuesday or Wednesday that he has named a side there have been fresh surprises. The question now is this: does he turn to experience in the hope that the seasoned players can get the necessary tries? Or look at the whole tournament and pick the players who have performed best? Or will he go for yet more new faces?

In Lièvremont's place, I would go for the best players of the last few weeks. Logic says that he needs to act on the conclusions he and his coaching team have reached in the tournament so far, but we French don't always do logic. We are more about instinct and that's what people seem to love about our rugby.

However, I would still defy instinct and take the logical course for next weekend because, even if it's going to be very difficult for France to win the tournament, a final victory - even by a single point - would be a huge boost to the side's confidence.

I would be very surprised if France achieve the necessary margin of victory next Saturday. That isn't a reflection on Marc and his players, but a realistic assessment of Wales. They have a grand slam within reach and have progressed so far and so fast since Twickenham, when a 40-point defeat looked a possibility. They move the ball well, they have good kickers at half-back and Shane Williams is able to unlock any defence, as Ireland found out on Saturday. It's incredible to remember where they were after the World Cup and it's a tribute to the magic of Warren Gatland and Shaun Edwards.

France are still moving forward as well, as they showed again yesterday against an Italian side that never lacks courage but simply doesn't have that touch of creative genius. The Italians look like 13 players in search of a pair of half-backs. The forwards are powerful and can drive up-field but it all stutters when the ball reaches the backs. They have improved, but as soon as the game speeds up they struggle.

There is a lot for France to take from yesterday. The positives were all there to be seen in the first try for Anthony Floch: good work from Yann David at centre (I think if there is one major find of this championship it could well be him), that cunning chip from François Trinh-Duc and a stunning finish from Floch and Julien Malzieu.

There was plenty of creativity, even without the flying Toulouse duo Vincent Clerc and Cédric Heymans. There is so much potential in that side, but winning by a 20-point margin against a confident Wales in a Millennium Stadium which will be at the peak of intensity is probably asking too much.

It's worth remembering all the doubts when Lièvremont brought in his first batch of fresh-faced youths to take on Scotland. Questions were raised over his sanity. He has been vindicated: there are some major finds such as Malzieu, Trinh-Duc, David, Fulgence Ouedraogo, and Morgan Parra. His side are likely to finish at least second in the tournament and they are going into the final game with a chance of victory.

He is in a far better situation than Eddie O'Sullivan or Brian Ashton today. Both England and Ireland will need to completely rethink their approaches and must do so fast. Ireland were totally predictable against Wales - one-dimensional, completely lacking any zip - and have produced about 20 minutes good rugby in this Six Nations, against a France side that had been completely changed.

England have had a bizarre championship, switching on and off like a faulty lightbulb. There was no magic in their exploits a couple of weeks ago against France - and in rugby you can't exist for long if you are not creative. A big pack and a tight defensive line are not enough.

England took on Ashton to produce a more ambitious game. They returned to basics through force of circumstance and now Ashton needs to bring in new faces. Both he and O'Sullivan need to follow Lièvremont's example and take some risks.