Louis van Gaal was most generous when asked before Southampton’s visit to Old Trafford at the weekend about their chances of a top-four finish. The Manchester United manager said they had some good players and an able coaching staff and so concluded yes, he could see them qualifying for the Champions League this season.
That should be remembered when, as a consequence of the Saints’ first victory at United for 27 years, Van Gaal finds himself under fire for the first time in his spell in England for spending north of £150m and producing results no better than those under David Moyes. Van Gaal was not exactly garlanded for losing 5-3 to Leicester City or 4-0 to MK Dons, of course, but most were willing to accept those setbacks as early season blips, inevitable for a manager making bold changes in personnel and playing style while coming to grips with his first season in a new country.
The home defeat by Southampton could not be explained away as easily, not when United did not manage a single shot on target. Ronald Koeman has been in this country exactly the same length of time as Van Gaal, spent considerably less money and is supervising a wholly unexpected surge towards the top of the table, especially when one considers the players Southampton lost over the summer.
That removes one of United’s excuses and, judging by Van Gaal’s tetchy reaction to being reminded he was supposed to be an improvement on Moyes, the manager is uncomfortably aware that Koeman and Southampton could continue to make things difficult right until the end of the season.
For if Southampton are genuine top-four candidates, and Van Gaal has confirmed that their present league position is no accident, then it follows that United’s own chances of a top-four finish are reduced. If we assume, as we probably can, that Chelsea and Manchester City are nailed on for the top-two positions, certainly for two positions within the top four, that leaves a single place for United, Arsenal, Liverpool and Spurs to fight over.
Maybe West Ham United deserve consideration too, as they are currently a point better off than Liverpool and only four behind United, but Liverpool did manage a top-four finish last season, as did Arsenal. Arsène Wenger’s team have a formidable record of continuous Champions League qualification, which is something else for Van Gaal to consider, and they also have Alexis Sánchez, with Mesut Özil to return. With all due respect to West Ham’s impressive renaissance this season, it would be a rare old Premier League campaign that ended with two newcomers in the top four.
Southampton at present appear best-placed to make it, and if that happens then some cosy assumptions about Van Gaal’s first season at United may be about to be challenged.
Try this, for a start. If Van Gaal reacts so sourly to being told he is only level-pegging with his predecessor, how will he and the rest of the club feel if it turns out results are worse than under Moyes? It might be glibly imagined that only relegation would constitute a season worse than the last, and in terms of the feelgood factor around the club and the general satisfaction level of supporters it may be a while before anyone starts hiring matchday aeroplanes, though what has disappeared through Southampton’s inexorable rise is the comforting thought that United were doing enough, with all the spending and the improved home record, to resume their anticipated place in the Champions League next season.
However, if United are actually no better than they were last season, the possibility exists that they will not finish this season any stronger than Arsenal, Liverpool or Spurs. For the sake of an argument, what would be worse? Taking on the daunting challenge of succeeding a manager of 27 years and failing to get anywhere near the top four, or being up there for most of the season after spending £150m then falling away before the end?
Perhaps this is jumping the gun. United are still in fourth place, after all. No one is saying they are incapable of staying there or climbing further, using Champions League status to attract an even higher calibre of player, spending another fortune and seeing how far their new supercoach can take them in his allotted three years, yet to make all that happen they will need to improve some. At least to the extent of managing a shot on target in a home match.
Southampton’s rise has removed some of United’s margin for error and Van Gaal appears to know it. This is not an inexperienced, out-of-his-depth manager on a hiding to nothing, Van Gaal is supposed to be the exact opposite to Moyes. The stakes are as high as the fees and wages currently flying around Old Trafford, because when a major club signs a supercoach-type on a three-year contract and backs him in the transfer market, it does not expect or wish to miss out on Champions League football for the first two of them.
Van Gaal has quite grandiose plans for the future, one would hardly expect anything else, and they do not involve the Europa League or the necessity of explaining to key transfer targets that Champions League football is on hold for another season. Should United falter to allow someone else to edge them out of the top four, Van Gaal might have to be judged more harshly than Moyes has been.
Everyone knew Moyes was a left-field choice, a huge risk. His successor, as is usually the way with football, represents a complete rethink, a safe if expensive pair of hands. Van Gaal has come in, spent the sort of money that Moyes (and Sir Alex Ferguson) could only dream about, imported a philosophy (allegedly) and is still not in a position to guarantee a top-four spot that has looked secure for most of the season. United could still miss out. Like Southampton, they have good players and an able coaching staff, but so do several of their rivals.
Van Gaal talks a lot about his philosophy, without ever quite explaining what is so unique about it. One can only hope he communicates it to his players better than his pressroom audiences, but back in the day Ferguson used to have a philosophy for this time of year as well. It was perfectly simple. “This is the stage of the season,” Ferguson would say, “when United really get going.” They generally would, too.
Maybe Van Gaal could ask Ryan Giggs about it, because his own philosophy appears to be giving hope to opponents. United need an injection of purpose from somewhere.
