7. Perth Glory
One of the best things you can say about Perth Glory right now is that no one expects much from them. In that respect the only way is up. With their playing ranks decimated by last season’s salary cap scandal (gone are Andy Keogh, Danny Vukovic, Scott Jamieson, Jamie Maclaren and Youssouf Hersi) and the allure of Europe (send postcards, Danny De Silva and Rostyn Griffiths), Kenny Lowe has had to rebuild his team from the ground up. Such has been the turnover, they probably still have to wear name tags at training.
In that respect it’s very difficult to predict what the Glory will do this season, but if there’s any residual acrimony (and Michael Thwaite’s dumping as captain when he criticised the club after its fall from grace last year suggests there may be) it could be a long, difficult season. But Lowe is as resolute as he is canny and, encouragingly, he’s overseen a better than expected pre-season during which the Glory have progressed through to the FFA semi-finals (where they’ll face Melbourne City).
One of the key contributors in this run has been former Wanderers keeper Ante Covic, who has signed a one-year deal and is determined to prove that, at 40, he’s not yet a spent force. Along with fullbacks Dino Djulbic and Josh Risdon, central defender Thwaite and attacking midfielder Nebojsa Marinkovic, Covic should be one of the first names on Lowe’s team sheet.
The losses of Griffiths and Keogh, however, are sizeable; Griffiths for his control in midfield and Keogh (and Maclaren, for that matter) for goals. While Perth look strong at the back —and the recruitment of former Wanderer Antony Golec reinforces that impression— it’s upfront they look skinny. When you consider Keogh and Maclaren scored 21 (of 45) goals between them in 2014-15, that’s a sizeable breach to fill. A lot will depend on how many goals Marinkovic can contribute from midfield and the quality of new international forwards Diego Castro and Guyon Fernandez.
Perth have a habit of defying expectations and while they appear to have a worrying lack of depth they may surprise still. Considering recent history, however, a finish in fifth or sixth should be seen as successful. PC
6. Wellington Phoenix
Wellington enjoyed their most successful season last time around, picking up a club-record number of points en route to the finals.
If Ernie Merrick is to better that feat, he’ll have to do so without either Nathan Burns – the competition’s player of the year, whose blistering form in front of goal earnt him a recall to the Socceroos - and Kenny Cunningham.
Merrick helped unlock the talents of Burns, and he may need to repeat the trick with Roy Krishna. The 28-year-old Fijian is something of a late bloomer, and his pre-season forms shows he could be ready to take another step forward this year.
He should get plenty of good support from attacking midfielder Jeffrey Sarpong. The Dutch Ghanaian is an Ajax graduate who has spent time at Real Sociedad and NAC Breda. He was Merrick’s only significant new signing over the break, and is also sporting a very dapper flat top these days.
The Phoenix’s pre-season form has been as easy to read as the Melbourne weather. They started their FFA Cup campaign on a bright note, notching up a win on the Central Coast and outclassed grand finalists Sydney FC in a subsequent friendly.
In between, however, they were pummelled 5-1 in the cup’s second round by Melbourne City, who also sent Wellington packing from the finals a few months earlier.
It’s hard to know what to make of a side that City can claim as its bunny, but New Zealand fans should have plenty to look forward to. After all, the Wellingtons only have to finish higher than fourth to find themselves in unknown waters. JK
5. Western Sydney Wanderers
It promises to be a pivotal season for Western Sydney Wanderers, and their coach Tony Popovic. The Wanderers mentor was the driving force for the most significant achievement by an Australian domestic club with last November’s AFC Champions League victory. It was an against-the-odds blue collar win, and one very much forged in the image of Popovic. Yet he has been happy to let almost the entire squad depart. The squad unrest around the time of their appearance at the Club World Cup and the subsequent exit of those players is no coincidence. Of the main contributors to that unlikely success only captain Nikolai Topor-Stanley, Mark Bridge and Brendon Santalab remain.
There is no doubt Popovic’s say is final at Wanderland. And now, having dispensed with the players that brought so much success, Popovic has turned up the heat on himself. Gone are Ante Covic, Matt Spiranovic, Iacopo La Rocca, Mateo Poljak, Nikita Rukavytsya and club talisman Tomi Juric.
Coming in are a host of new names, many of whom are unknown to Australian audiences. Spaniards Dimas Delgado, Alberto Aguilar and Andreu Guerao were brought into the squad, as well as Italian striker Federico Piovaccari. How they fit into the strict parameters of the Popovic club ethos remains to be seen, and will be a factor in their success or failure. Other new arrivals include Mitch Nichols, Scott Neville and Dario Vidosic. It seems unlikely that the Wanderers will enjoy the success of seasons past, and Popovic’s aims are likely to be set on achieving results in the longer term. Much interest will be on the patience of club supporters and multi-millionaire owner Paul Lederer should there be a string of poor results and dwindling crowds. PS
4. Adelaide United
The man who delivered Adelaide United its most significant piece of silverware to date – the inaugural FFA Cup – has departed the city of churches for the one that never sleeps.
Josep Gombau leaves his side in seemingly good hands – those of compatriot Guillermo Amor. With both men coming from the Barca school – Gombau as coach, Amor as player – the transition could be a fairly seamless one. But will it result in a first and long-overdue A-League championship for the Reds?
Their cup defence certainly hasn’t gone well. It was over before the season even began, thanks to a 3-1 loss at Melbourne Victory. They’ve lost key defenders in Nigel Boogaard and Cameron Watson, and speedy young striker Awer Mabil has landed a gig in Europe.
But the Reds have held on to their best firepower – Sanchez, Cirio, Carrusca – and have lured Viduka-esque forward Eli Babalj back to Australia, at least temporarily.
The 23-year-old, once of Melbourne City, has spent the past two years as a “forgotten man” in the Netherlands. Time will tell if he’s still got the touch that made him attractive to AZ Alkmaar (and Red Star Belgrade before them).
Tarek Elrich continues to improve, even in his late 20s, and looks to be growing into the role of national full-back. That’s bound to have flow-on effects for Adelaide, the team that has helped him rediscover his form.
With no major overhaul of last year’s squad, the biggest change has been at the top. Gombau has laid the groundwork. Now it’s up to Amor to take the Reds to the top. JK
3. Melbourne City
Melbourne’s other team managed their potentially tricky transition from Heart to City reasonably smoothly last season and though a few excitable types predicted them to win the competition – as if revolutions, like shiny, bouncy hair, just happen overnight – City would have been satisfied with their fifth-place finish and first finals win. A mid-table finish this season, however, would be a major disappointment. City look capable of much more.
That, at least, is the impression created during what’s been a thoroughly satisfying off-season, one that has included City establishing a W-League team, which is a boost both for women’s football and for the club’s sense of self. City’s transfer dealings have been similarly encouraging. No big-name overseas marquee like David Villa to play just four games this time; rather, John van ’t Schip’s team have signed accomplished newcomers, and Australia internationals Ivan Franjic, Aaron Hughes and Michael Zullo. Along with new keeper Thomas Sorensen, that trio should help form, alongside Patrick Kisnorbo and deep-lying midfielder Erik Paartalu, a more solid defence than City/Heart have fielded in recent years.
City’s encouraging pre-season has seen them charge into the FFA Cup semi-finals. Playing their favoured 4-4-3 they’ve shown flair and finishing power. Last year’s stand-out player Aaron Mooy has been filling the net like John West and if he can continue his form (his goals are a bonus), and find in Robbie Koren a willing co-driver, City will create plenty of chances. How well they take them – and this has always been their problem – may well define their season.
Step right up, then, Uruguayan Bruno “The Prickly Pear” Fornaroli (who’s already scored three pre-season goals) and former Sky Blue Corey Gameiro. Still just 22, Gameiro has been stymied by injury, but if he has better luck on that front City could witness his best years. Add to this pair the exciting Frenchman Harry Novillo, David Williams and youngsters Wade Dekker and Steve Kuzmanovski, City appear to have boosted their goal threat. They may still the second best team in Melbourne but City have options, depth and reasons to be hopeful. PC
Predicted placings were determined by aggregating the verdicts of a seven-strong panel of Guardian Australia football writers comprising Richard Parkin, Joe Gorman, Jack Kerr, Rob Brooks, Pete Smith, Mike Hytner and Paul Connolly. The full breakdown of that process will be published in tomorrow’s final preview.
