Jonathan Wilson 

The Premier League so far: a majestic muddle that continues to entertain

Perhaps it’s not the best league in the world but who wants a runaway leader? We’ve no idea what’s coming next in Europe’s most compelling competition
  
  

Sergio Agüero
Manchester City’s Sergio Agüero celebrates scoring against Chelsea as the champions began their Premier League stumble with a 3-0 defeat at the Etihad. Photograph: Carl Recine/Reuters

A third of the way through the Premier League season and it is still to take shape. There is a pleasingly old-fashioned look to the table, with the top seven separated by six points. To put that into context, 12 games into last season, the leaders Chelsea had six points more than Manchester City do now and the gap to seventh was 14. The usual suspects – or some of the usual suspects – will presumably kick on but this promises to be a closer, less predictable race than for years.

It’s not possible always to make precise comparisons because of teams having games in hand (and looking at the spread of the top seven is an arbitrary metric anyway) but it’s probably fair to say not since 1999-2000 have the top seven been separated by such a narrow margin at this stage.

Not that 1999-2000 produced a great title race; rather Manchester United, having dropped 12 points in their first 12 games, dropped only 11 in the remainder of the season and won the title by 18 points from Arsenal, with Leeds four further back. No one this season, looks capable of putting a similar run together. All of the main title contenders are flawed.

Perhaps Manchester City are the best equipped but they remain heavily reliant on Sergio Agüero and David Silva for the spark to unlock opponents and the striker is as injury-prone as ever. They will blow sides away – as they did to Newcastle and Bournemouth, the first with, the second without Agüero – but there will also probably be more games like the home defeat to West Ham and the away draw at Aston Villa when they dominate but struggle to convert possession into goals.

Even more worrying was the collapse at Tottenham. City, admittedly, were without Joe Hart, Vincent Kompany and Silva that day, Nicolás Otamendi was yet to settle, Agüero wasn’t fully fit and Yaya Touré was forced off with a hamstring problem – a rare concatenation of misfortune that is unlikely to recur – but the game did cast doubts abut the strength of their backup and, in particular, their mental resilience.

Arsenal are still Arsenal and while an Arsenal with Petr Cech is better than an Arsenal without – the goalkeeper was vital in securing a point against Tottenham on Sunday – there is a brittleness to their brilliance, in part caused by the fact they continue to be so dogged by injuries. The draw in a derby in which they were second best for an hour at least suggested a resilience but they’re not a side to be trusted, at least not yet. They do, though, have four very winnable games before the match with City four days before Christmas, an opportunity to get points in the bank and consolidate their position.

Manchester United are somehow only two points off the top but even Louis van Gaal admitted on Saturday they are some way from being the team he envisages. The focus on maintaining possession has given them an admirable defensive record – no goals conceded in more than 10 hours – but with Wayne Rooney misfiring they’re reliant on inexperienced players doing something brilliant for goals.

At some point perhaps everything will click, as it did for those four games last season between beating Tottenham and Michael Carrick being injured against City, but there’s little indication yet of the eureka moment being close.

Chelsea’s struggles are becoming freakish, misfortune compounding a loss of form and morale, and they will improve, but their poor start means the battle for fourth is open. Tottenham look as good as they have since Gareth Bale left (and arguably are a rather more coherent all-round side even than then) and, with Liverpool adapting to Jürgen Klopp – another charismatic addition to the soap opera – they would surely regard it as a huge opportunity missed if they did not qualify for the Champions League this season.

But the other – perhaps unexpected – factor this season has been the rise of the Premier League’s middle-class, seemingly on the back of the new television deal. Perhaps the likes of Leicester, West Ham and Crystal Palace did start the season with a background worry of relegation but that surely has already receded and they join Everton and Southampton in scrapping for Europa League qualification – with the thought that a Champions League slot, for once, is not totally beyond them.

The environment is changing and the result is the Premier League is probably more competitive than it has been in a decade or so. There is a danger it could have a negative impact on European performance as constant attrition leads to weariness – something Van Gaal has already highlighted – which in turn will lead to complaints about quality.

But quality is hard to define and, besides, which is preferable – a league in which one team are clearly brilliant and lead seventh by 16 points after 12 games, as in Germany, or one in which it is all a bit of a muddle and no one has a clue what is going to happen?

Best league in the world? Maybe not but at the moment the Premier League is a huge amount of fun.

 

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