Rugby Australia is seeking to deliver a rare coup, but is gambling the future of the game on a child prodigy who may or may not ever fulfil his potential. RA has strenuously denied offering teenage sensation Joseph Suaalii a $3m deal to turn his back on a fledgling NRL career with the South Sydney Rabbitohs. But even if you accept the denial of a mega deal, the youngster is clearly not going to come cheap.

New Wallabies coach Dave Rennie admits he is highly impressed with Suaalii, while Rabbitohs great Sam Burgess has described his talent as “unbelievable.” Others have predicted Suaalii could be the next Israel Folau. The kid can play, but the signing of Suaalii on a deal anywhere close to what established Wallabies players earn would potentially have all sorts of ramifications, particularly in these financially perilous times.

How can a cash-strapped sport like rugby splash cash on a player who is not even old enough to vote? There is speculation RA will only pay half of Suaalii’s contract with the other half coming from third-parties, but even if this were correct, they would still be forking out a lot of money on an unproven player.

I am all for rugby competing as hard as possible for the best young talent, but the game has to be realistic about what it can afford. At the very least, rugby would have to better the $1.7m over three years from the Rabbitohs. Even that is a lot of money for a 16-year-old, much more than the likes of David Pocock and Kurtley Beale received when they joined Super Rugby clubs as teenagers.

Why would you spend that kind of money on a winger anyway? While the value of NRL wingers has risen in recent years, the position is still one of the lowest paid in a rugby league team. Australian rugby values wingers more highly. Most of the rugby league players who have switched to rugby have been wingers – Wendell Sailor, Lote Tuqiri, Mat Rogers and more recently Marike Koroibete.

But in European rugby the most valuable players are tight-head props, lineout-winning second-rowers and goal-kicking five-eighths – not wingers. Unless Suaalii has the potential to play fullback or outside-centre, a $3m offer – or even half of that – to a schoolboy winger would appear to be paying over the odds.

Other carrots have been dangled in front of Suaalii, including the opportunity to play for the Australian sevens team at the Olympic Games. Rumours are swirling that Suaalli has also been promised a start with the NSW Waratahs in the Super Rugby AU competition this year as well as a place on the reserves bench for the Wallabies. Imagine throwing an inexperienced youth into a Bledisloe Cup Test against the All Blacks. You could destroy his confidence before his career even starts.

If Suaalii does play for the Waratahs and the Wallabies this year, he might get a frosty reception in the dressing shed. The news of RA chasing Suaalli has enraged established Wallabies, who have been required to take significant pay cuts because of the financial impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the game.

Even if the reported $3m offer is way off the mark, players are still upset about the Suaalii negotiation. RA has placed a freeze on players negotiating with Super Rugby clubs because of uncertainty about the future of the game and the fact they are talking to Suaali at all has not gone down well with the playing group.

Senior Wallabies, who at one point considered strike action over pay cuts, are questioning why they made financial sacrifices for the sake of the game when administrators are throwing money at a schoolboy.

This is a highly sensitive time for relations between RA and the players. At the end of September RA and the Super Rugby clubs will be liable for the full amount of the players’ contracts. If they are not honoured, many players will consider heading to Europe and Japan. The Suaalii situation has further strained relations between RA and the players, which may influence decisions on whether to stay or leave.

If RA and the Super Rugby clubs cannot be sure about what they can offer current players, how can they be sure of what they can offer Suaalii? At present, RA does not have a broadcasting deal beyond this year and no one knows what competition Australia’s Super Rugby teams will be playing in next year – Trans-Tasman or domestic – which could significantly affect the value of TV revenue. Unless RA can secure a bumper TV deal, player contracts will have to be re-negotiated next year.

Presumably, Suaalii’s contract will be guaranteed, which could become another source of friction with the rest of the players, especially if they have to accept further wage restraint.

Australian rugby has not had much to celebrate in recent years. It would be wonderful to recruit a prodigious talent such as Suaalii, a feather in the cap of whoever signed him. But no 16-year-old is worth $3m and he certainly should not be rushed into Super Rugby or Test rugby before he is ready.

If Suaalii does sign with rugby, hopefully he will come at the right price and be nurtured to enjoy a long and successful career.