Wincanton’s loss could prove to be Chepstow’s gain after officials at the Somerset track abandoned all hope of staging its card on Saturday following an inspection of the waterlogged course on Thursday. As a result, Chepstow will now run the rescheduled Welsh National as the first race on its rescheduled card this weekend, though prospects for that meeting also remain in the balance with more rain forecast on Saturday.
The Welsh National was postponed from its traditional place in the racing calendar on 27 December due to waterlogging, and seems certain to be run in demanding conditions following 55mm of rain at the track in the last seven days, on top of a record 300mm in December.
Moving the off-time from 3.25pm to 1.45pm means that it will at least be run on fresh ground as the first chase on the card, however, while it is also possible that Chepstow’s biggest race of the year will miss a further band of rain that is forecast to arrive on Saturday afternoon.
Second-guessing the weather is never easy, but it is a fact of life for a clerk of the course and Keith Ottesen, the official in charge at Chepstow, is determined to give the Welsh National the best possible chance to get into the form book. “It’s clear and fine at the moment and we’re due to have a dry night,” Ottesen said on Thursday. “We’re forecast 2-3mm of showers on Friday morning and then dry. There’s a possibility of some showers on Friday night and Saturday morning, and an organised band of rain which might come through on Saturday afternoon after midday.
“There’s nothing horrific but every day the forecast changes. We could race today even though we had another 15mm of rain last night. The rain is because of the very mild weather we’ve had, but because of that mild weather, the grass is still growing and it takes care of it a little bit.
“It made sense to change the time when Wincanton was off and we saw the opportunity. We can get the longest race on the better ground, and get it done. If we get into difficulty with heavy rain on Saturday afternoon, it wouldn’t be very good if it was the race before the Welsh National.”
The ground at Chepstow on Saturday is still expected to be the most demanding surface for a major long-distance chase since the Eider Chase at Newcastle in 2011, when only three of the 12 starters completed the course, officially separated by 30 and 99 lengths.
James Armstrong, Newcastle’s clerk of the course, said afterwards that “it wasn’t a nice race to watch”, but Ottesen is confident Saturday’s runners will be up to the task.
“I’ve had a good number of the trainers on the phone over the last few days,” he said, “and they’re so keen to run the race. They are saying, don’t worry, these are our horses and we know that they will cope with those conditions. Two of the runners [Mountainous and Emperor’s Choice] have won it before, and I suspect that one of them might well win it again.
“Racecourses don’t govern the sport, the BHA does, but we’ve got to make a decision. We’ve got different criteria to judge it on, and that’s whether we can operate safely. Top of the list is medical and veterinary provision, that’s our priority, and it’s up to the trainers whether they run those horses.
“We are very confident. It comes back to the point about it being mild and the grass being active. Normally at this time of the year, you’ll have had a period of frost, and maybe a long period of frost, and it cannot recover. That’s when you get areas of false ground and conditions that aren’t safe, whereas the grass is green and standing upright. That’s unusual, and it’s partly because we’re stuck in that warmer air coming across the Atlantic.”
Chepstow has already been more fortunate that Ffos Las, where Ottesen is also the clerk of the course, which abandoned its scheduled card this Sunday following an inspection on Thursday. The meeting at Wetherby on Friday was also abandoned early on Thursday morning.
