Game of the week
Seattle Seahawks (13-3) v San Francisco 49ers (12-4)
The final round of the regular season has delivered and then some, with two knockout nail-biters deciding the final playoff spots. Will the Ravens take revenge on the Steelers to grab the AFC North title? Can the Panthers cling on against the Buccaneers and claim the NFC South? Will either winner make it past the first round next week?
What we can be more confident about is this: once the dust settles in Tampa, the cream of the NFC will collide on the west coast. Seattle head to the Bay Area for a Saturday night showdown with San Francisco, with the No 1 seed at stake. Both rivals arrive red hot on six-game winning streaks, desperate to avoid a defeat that would forfeit a bye week and force a wildcard road trip. The tension will be sky high.
What the Seahawks need to do to win
Nothing. Absolutely nothing. Do not even consider tinkering with a defense playing this well. Seattle have conceded 18.1 points per game this season, the second-fewest in the NFL, and their 44 sacks rank eighth overall. Brock Purdy will have his work cut out against a fierce pass rush and may have to do it without future Hall of Fame left tackle Trent Williams, who injured a hamstring against the Bears. Without his protector-in-chief, Purdy could be spraying pick-ready passes all over the field.
The offense, meanwhile, needs to relax. The 49ers have a habit of making quarterbacks look like world-beaters, no effort required. Remind Sam Darnold that Cardinals journeyman Jacoby Brissett set an NFL record for completions against San Francisco this season. Get the ball to Jaxson Smith-Njigba and let the points flow. Interceptions should not be a major concern: even though Darnold leads the league with 20, the 49ers have managed just six all season. Easy does it.
What the 49ers need to do to win
Stop the run. Seattle have thrived through Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet as defenses remain wary of Smith-Njigba’s deep threat. Run defense is the only consistently solid facet of San Francisco’s unit. In the season opener between these teams, the 49ers held Charbonnet to 47 yards on 12 carries and Walker to 20 yards on 10 attempts. Seattle stalled, and San Francisco escaped with a 17-13 win.
Nick Bosa’s last-gasp strip-sack that day killed a late comeback at Lumen Field. Without him, however, the pass rush has been abysmal, producing a league-worst 18 sacks. For context, the Jets have eight more in 31st place, while the Broncos have 46 more at the top. Without pressure on the sometimes shaky Darnold, the 49ers must sell out to shut down the run. Force Seattle to place the No 1 seed on Darnold’s shoulders – a big ask for a quarterback with a habit of retreating into his shell under the spotlight, as seen in last season’s wildcard loss to the Rams.
Rising: Houston Texans
Houston remain strangely under the Super Bowl contender radar despite being the NFL’s form team, riding a league-best eight-game winning streak. How are the 11-5 Texans pulling this off? A mix of factors. Sitting second to Jacksonville in the AFC South helps, though they can still clinch the division by beating the Colts if the Jaguars lose to the Titans. Their 3-5 start, marred by a sputtering offense, also lingers in perception.
Will CJ Stroud and co regress when the stakes rise? Possibly. But if Jacksonville and Houston both win on Sunday, a relatively forgiving trip to Baltimore or Pittsburgh awaits. The Texans’ ferocious defense should overwhelm either opponent, setting Stroud up for a third consecutive AFC divisional-round appearance. With battle-hardened experience from two previous failures – and a potential matchup in Denver, where defenses have rattled Bo Nix – Houston could be poised for a first conference championship appearance in franchise history.
Falling: Los Angeles Rams
The Rams’ Christmas period has been brutal. Successive defeats have knocked them from the top of the NFC West to the sixth seed. Their only path to avoiding a daunting road trip to Philadelphia in the wildcard round is to beat the Cardinals and hope Seattle take care of San Francisco.
Before Monday’s disastrous loss to Atlanta, Matthew Stafford was the runaway favorite for MVP. After throwing three interceptions, the award now appears safe in Drake Maye’s hands.
So what has gone wrong for Sean McVay’s Rams? The offense has unravelled. Wide receiver Davante Adams has been a glaring absence in the red zone. Stafford’s MVP case was built on Adams finishing drives with his one-on-one dominance. An 11-touchdown burst across six games fuelled a 5-1 midseason run. His return cannot come soon enough. Nor can that of left tackle Alaric Jackson and right guard Kevin Dotson. Constant reshuffling up front has left the Rams disjointed, culminating in just the third first-half shutout of the McVay era since 2017. Unless reinforcements arrive quickly, this slide may continue straight out of the playoffs.
Race for the No 1 pick
The Raiders have almost done it. Placing their two star players on injured reserve produced the desired catastrophic result against the Giants, leaving Las Vegas with the league’s worst record at 2-14. A loss to another broken side, the Chiefs, would secure the top pick – but will Andy Reid really be outfoxed by a team actively trying to lose in what may be Travis Kelce’s final game? Unlikely.
The race for No 2 is even messier. Four teams sit at 3-13: the Jets, Giants, Titans and Cardinals. Their opponents – the Bills, Cowboys, Jaguars and Rams – include three playoff teams and an angry Dallas side. Relief is unlikely, with none eager to rest starters. If all four lose, the draft order falls to the Giants second, Jets third, Titans fourth and Cardinals fifth on strength of schedule.
If the season ended today …
AFC 1) Denver 13-3; 2) New England 13-3; 3) Jacksonville 12-4; 4) Pittsburgh 9-7; 5) Houston 11-5; 6) LA Chargers 11-5; 7) Buffalo 11-5. Bubble: Baltimore 8-8
NFC 1) Seattle 13-3; 2) Chicago 11-5; 3) Philadelphia 11-5; 4) Carolina 8-8; 5) San Francisco 12-4; 6) LA Rams 11-5; 7) Green Bay 9-6-1. Bubble: Tampa Bay 7-9
