Third set: Sabalenka 4-6, 6-4, 4-5 Rybakina* (*next server)

“Don’t worry, positive, keep hitting,” are the words of Rybakina’s coach as Sabalenka advances to 30-0. Rybakina hears the instructions and booms a backhand, but it’s a case of bust for the Kazakhstani. So it’s 40-0. And Sabalenka holds to 15, to force Rybakina to serve this out.

Third set: Sabalenka* 4-6, 6-4, 3-5 Rybakina (*next server)

After break points in the past three games, Rybakina would love a game without any jeopardy here. If it’s possible to have a game without any jeopardy, when you’re serving at 4-3 in the final set of a grand slam final. But anyway, from 15-all, Rybakina’s first serve sets up a short, sharp point, and it’s 30-15, then 40-30. And Sabalenka is swiping her hand into the air and bouncing her racket off the court when Rybakina moves to within one game of victory.

Rybakina breaks: Sabalenka 4-6, 6-4, 3-4 Rybakina* (*next server)

This is now SO tense. And Sabalenka looks SO tight as she makes the error for 15-30. And then nets her backhand for 15-40! That was agonising .. it clipped the net tape before bouncing back on to her side of the court. Rybakina misses on the first break point … but Sabalenka smashes a routine forehand into the net on the second! Rybakina, from 3-0 down in this set, is now just two games away from her first Australian Open title!

Third set: Sabalenka* 4-6, 6-4, 3-3 Rybakina (*next server)

But the problem for Rybakina is that she’s still not landing enough first serves, and that gives Sabalenka the chance to get to 30-40. Sabalenka gets another look at a second serve on the break point … and cracks a cross-court backhand return … some in the crowd think it’s caught the sideline, but it’s just wide! A reprieve for Rybakina. And she makes the most of it, taking the next two points to hold.

Rybakina breaks back: Sabalenka 4-6, 6-4, 3-2 Rybakina* (*next server)

The energy Vukov was demanding is on full display as Rybakina zips to 0-15 with a forehand winner – then 15-30 – and then 15-40 with a backhand that she absolutely nails down the line! Two break-back points … the pair go down the middle at each other … and Sabalenka surrenders surprisingly meekly with a poor netted forehand! She looks disgusted with herself. They’re back on serve and Sabalenka must quickly refocus is she’s to become a three-time Australian Open champion.

Third set: Sabalenka* 4-6, 6-4, 3-1 Rybakina (*next server)

A rare drop shot from Sabalenka at 15-all. It’s well-disguised and Rabalenka can’t chase it down in time. “You need energy! There’s no energy!” screams Rybakina’s coach when 15-all develops into 30-all. Can Sabalenka carve out a chance for a double break? No, because Rybakina holds from there to end a run of five games on the spin against her.

Third set: Sabalenka 4-6, 6-4, 3-0 Rybakina* (*next server)

A hint of danger for Sabalenka at 15-30 but a big serve gets her out of danger and she restores parity at 30-all; how Rybakina must wish she could rely on that weapon herself right now. But Sabalenka then blinks with an errant forehand and Rybakina has her first break point since game one of the first set! A huge serve … and Sabalenka steps forward to bury the short ball! That was CLUTCH. And Sabalenka surges through the next two points, securing the game with a nerveless smash. This is still only one break, but Rybakina is still to get on the scoreboard in this decider.

Sabalenka breaks: Sabalenka* 4-6, 6-4, 2-0 Rybakina (*next server)

Sabalenka smokes a backhand return winner for 15-all … and runs around her backhand for an inside-in forehand winner for 30-all! Sabalenka is upping the ante … one of the longest rallies of the match plays out, 16 shots, they’re taking lumps out of each other … and Sabalenka finds the angle to finally end things with a backhand blast! 30-40, break point … and Sabalenka gobbles up the second serve to break! Rybakina made only one out of six first serves in that game, and Sabalenka took full advantage. For the first time in this final, the world No 1 has the lead.

Third set: Sabalenka 4-6, 6-4, 1-0 Rybakina* (*next server)

So who wins from here? Given Sabalenka’s stats and status, I’m siding with her – just - but this is absolutely not a given, and Rybakina reminds Sabalenka of that with a punchy strike at 15-all. Though Sabalenka assumes control from there, taking the next three points for the hold. She hasn’t faced a break point since the opening game of this match.

Sabalenka preserves her record of winning at least a set in her past 113 grand slam matches. She hasn’t lost a slam match in straight sets since the 2020 US Open. And remember, this is her fifth final in six majors. Her numbers are unrivalled at present. Both players take their leave … but Sabalenka is back on court much quicker than Rybakina; having seized the momentum, she wants to get on with this. Rybakina eventually returns, still looking so calm, even though you wouldn’t blame her if she’s falling apart inside. She’ll be seeing that missed drop shot in her nightmares tonight if Sabalenka goes on to win this.

Second set: Sabalenka 4-6, 5-4 Rybakina* (*next server)

Sabalenka puts down the hammer and holds to 15. Back to you, Elena …

Second set: Sabalenka* 4-6, 4-4 Rybakina (*next server)

Credit to Sabalenka, she let her emotions get the better of her in several crucial moments last year, including in the Australian Open final against Madison Keys, the French Open final against Coco Gauff and the Wimbledon semi-final against Amanda Anisimova. But despite the force of what she’s facing here, she’s maintained a relative state of emotional equilibrium for her, though Rybakina looks even more composed as she eases to 15-0, 30-0, 40-0, game.

Second set: Sabalenka 4-6, 4-3 Rybakina* (*next server)

Oooohs and aaaaaahs and gasps and screams as both players face off at the net and Sabalenka emerges victorious. It gives her 40-15 on serve, but she’s waving her arms in the air in frustration rather than celebration when she double faults for 40-30. Perhaps she was still refocusing after the previous point. Another missed first serve … she makes the second … but Rybakina reads it and drills a backhand return winner down the line! Deuce. Advantage Sabalenka. Game Sabalenka, when Sabalenka backs up a stinging, snarling first serve by hurtling forward and dispatching an easy winner.

Second set: Sabalenka* 4-6, 3-3 Rybakina (*next server)

Rybakina is dragging Sabalenka right and left and right and left at 30-15 – and Sabalenka, usually the dictator rather than the defender, makes the error. The indignity of it all! Rybakina goes on to hold to 30. And fancy reading Tumaini’s preview of the men’s final? Sure you do:

Second set: Sabalenka 4-6, 2-3 Rybakina* (*next server)

Rybakina did have a few wobbles against Jessica Pegula in the semi-finals before getting over the line, when her forehand in particular went off the boil, but she’s showing no signs of tension so far, and is pushing an exasperated Sabalenka at 40-30 on the world No 1’s serve before Sabalenka squeezes through to hold.

Second set: Sabalenka* 4-6, 2-2 Rybakina (*next server)

During her defeat by Rybakina at WTA Finals in November, Sabalenka was caught on camera saying to her team “once a year even a stick shoots” of her opponent. I wonder what her current assessment of Rybakina is; maybe she’d show a bit more respect for what Rybakina is doing here. Anyway … Sabalenka holds to 15 … and then Rybakina does the same. Despite a double fault in that game, Rybakina’s first-serve percentage is rising, which could be ominous for Sabalenka if Rybakina moves closer to the finish line.

Second set: Sabalenka* 4-6, 1-1 Rybakina (*next server)

Rybakina has probably shaded the support from the crowd so far, perhaps because they see her as the underdog, so it’ll be interesting to see if they switch loyalties in this set now that she’s ahead. They’re certainly cheering when Sabalenka gets herself to 15-30 on Rybakina’s serve – but then they’re applauding just as loudly when Rybakina runs through the next two points for 40-30. But Sabalenka propels herself into the night sky and lets off some fireworks with an airbound backhand return winner for deuce! Cue one of the loudest roars from Sabalenka tonight. And then a huge “COME ONNN!” after she crunches a forehand winner to secure a break point. Rybakina decides it’s time for a change of tack and comes to the net to dismiss the danger. But here’s a second break point … Rybakina denies her again, this time with a forehand thunderbolt … then a third BP … and now with a strike of lightning Rybakina rips a backhand winner! From there Rybakina holds, after the longest game of the final so far.

Second set: Sabalenka 4-6, 1-0 Rybakina* (*next server)

Rybakina is such a formidable frontrunner, and has won her past 23 matches after taking the opening set. But Sabalenka will no doubt remember that she lost the first set 6-4 in their 2023 Australian Open final – before coming back to win in three. There’s some intense tactical debate between Rybakina and her coach between sets – Sabalenka meanwhile takes herself off court for a few minutes to regroup – and returns for a no-nonsense hold to 15. A far more assured start from Sabalenka in this second set than she managed in the first.

First set: Sabalenka 4-5 Rybakina* (*next server)

Vukov is now a constant hum of instructions from the courtside box, but it doesn’t distract Sabalenka, as she smoothly advances to 40-0. But an outrageous return from Rybakina followed by a deft drop shot and it’s 40-15. I thought it would be Sabalenka drop shotting tonight, as well as coming to the net … but despite having added more variety to her game of late, she’s been a bit too rooted to the baseline. This is a bit more like early career Sabalenka, who wanted to just hit everything as hard as she could. But no doubt the strength of Rybakina’s groundstrokes is making it hard for Sabalenka to mix things up. Sabalenka holds to 15 – but Rybakina will serve for the set.

First set: Sabalenka* 3-5 Rybakina (*next server)

Vukov has some words for Rybakina at 15-all. It doesn’t work, because soon Sabalenka is swatting away a forehand winner for 15-30 … Rybakina’s first-serve percentage is down at about 40% now. She can’t land a first serve here either, but does her second … she’s dictating the point … unwinds with a backhand down the line … but it whistles wide! 15-40, two break-back points. Rybakina finds a first serve when it matters, and it’s an ace. And the second BP goes by in the blink of an eye too. And Rybakina rips through from deuce to hold! Some superb serving gets herself out of trouble.

First set: Sabalenka 3-4 Rybakina* (*next server)

At 30-0, Sabalenka can’t move her feet quickly enough and she stabs into the net. But Rybakina then engages in a bit of net-bashing herself. 40-15, and for Sabalenka’s second successive service game she sends down an ace – this one down the T – to settle matters. Since being broken in the opening game, the world No 1 has conceded only two points on serve. But she’ll have to break soon if she’s to extend this set …

First set: Sabalenka* 2-4 Rybakina (*next server)

Rybakina hasn’t quite hit the heights yet on her first serve, but is doing a good job behind her second, and that gets her to 15-0. The longest rally of the final on the next point … and eventually Rybakina raises the stakes with a vicious cross-court forehand that sets up the inside-out winner! 30-0. Sabalenka is now spinning and sliding and doing all she can to get the ball back … she does … but Rybakina, as is her wont, smacks it away. 40-0. Sabalenka shakes off some of her frustrations with a backhand winner down the line and Rybakina then balloons beyond the baseline… but Sabalenka can make no further inroads as Rybakina holds to 30.

First set: Sabalenka 2-3 Rybakina* (*next server)

This is Sabalenka’s seventh consecutive grand slam final on hard courts – she’s the third woman after Steffi Graf and Martina Hingis to do that in the open era. And this is also her fourth straight Australian open final – something matched only by Hingis. And Sabalenka looks more like the player who has accumulated those numbers as she secures her first hold to love, drawing three backhand errors from Rybakina and finishing things off with an ace.

First set: Sabalenka* 1-3 Rybakina (*next server)

A first double fault from Rybakina hands Sabalenka a 0-15 start. Rybakina’s coach, Stefano Vukov, has some words of encouragement from the sidelines. Rybakina’s return to form, by the way, has coincided with his suspension being lifted last summer after he was banned by the WTA because of alleged verbal abuse towards her. Rybakina, from 0-15, routinely rattles off the next four points to hold. And Sabalenka, never one to be outdone, looks rather annoyed at the fact she’s been second-best so far.

First set: Sabalenka 1-2 Rybakina* (*next server)

Sabalenka shows courage under early fire to work her way to 40-15 on serve … before making a mess of her backhand. No bother; an ace seals the game. She’s on the board. And here’s Gregory Phillips: “Anagram based predictions suggest this match could be an “easy banana lark” for Sabalenka.” It’s more of a banana skin right now, I’d say.

First set: Sabalenka* 0-2 Rybakina (*next server)

Rybakina, with her effortless power and movement, calmly glides to 15-0, 30-0, 40-0 and game to back up the break. Sabalenka, in contrast, looks panicked by her opponent’s start. And some obligatory fashion notes: Sabalenka is once again in her pink, peach and black dayglo dress, which she has described as “surf inspired” and makes her look as if she should be an extra on Venice Beach in the Barbie movie. Rybakina is in a slightly more understated pale yellow dress, with a splash of blue.

Rybakina breaks: Sabalenka 0-1 Rybakina* (*next server)

Ready? Let’s play. Sabalenka, playing her fifth final out of the past six grand slams, settles in early with two short, sharp points for 30-0. But Rybakina reads Sabalenka’s next serve and rams a cross-court forehand return winner. Wow. That was an early reminder of her power, as if we needed one. Then at 30-all, Rybakina fires a forehand return down the line! Sabalenka, smartly, serves to Rybakina’s backhand on the break point, and the Russian-born Kazakhstani can’t get the ball back in to play. Sabalenka strikes long at deuce, and Rybakina has a second break point. Sabalenka goes for broke with an inside-out forehand but blazes it into the tramlines to surrender serve already! She hit nearly 90% of her first serves in the game – but it still wasn’t enough.

Laura Robson, meanwhile, on TNT Sports says she’s 50-50 and declares as the main presenter she’s allowed to sit on the fence. Coco Vandeweghe says she was going to back Sabalenka, but the fact the roof is closed may help Rybakina, but in the end she opts for Sabalenka in three anyway. Tim Henman is backing Rybakina.

So who wins? Sabalenka’s record in Australia, plus her greater consistency as the world No 1, makes her the favourite, but just as Rybakina won’t be fazed by Sabalenka’s power, nor will she be by the Belarusian’s stats. She knows she can beat her, having done so in six of their 14 meetings, and knows that she can win a slam, having done so at Wimbledon four years ago. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if this goes the distance … but Sabalenka has the slight edge.

Tik, tok, tik, tok, the players warming up, so we’ve got time to talk tactics. There won’t be too many surprises here; as two of the biggest servers and ball-strikers on tour, both will want to be the one bossing the points and won’t be at all intimidated by the power coming at them. But Sabalenka’s game has evolved to show more variety, and throwing in plenty of drop shots today would be a smart approach, given Rybakina doesn’t move quite as well as her. Rybakina will have to serve better than she did in her semi-final; if she misses too many first serves again Sabalenka will surely take advantage.

The first victory is Sabalenka’s: the world No 1 wins the toss and doesn’t even hesitate in opting to serve first. A message of intent from the off.

Here the players come, navigating their way through the backstage tunnel, which has been souped-up this year and is more like a discombobulating hall of mirrors. They pass the pre-match test by finding their way through and emerging unscathed. Actually, Sabalenka doesn’t only emerge unscathed, she absolutely strided through. She looks in the zone already.

The roof on Rod Laver Arena is closed because of rain. Rybakina’s face hardly ever betrays any emotions, but she’s likely to be happy, because she won their most recent meeting indoors, at the WTA Finals in November for her biggest title since Wimbledon in 2022.

If you’d like to get in touch with any predictions and musings you can do so here. It’s always good to get the chat going.

And this from Krishna Moorthy: “Unlike you I am yet to have any breakfast and just a coffee that triggered my brain to do some anagrams and Elena Rybakina turned into “Break Any Alien”. If aliens do not stand a chance I can safely assume that Aryna does not either. Predicting this AO has been pretty risky (Alcaraz pulling off a miracle, Djoker getting a walkover and then performing his favourite Houdini act...) and an anagram is as good as any measured guess.”

“Hi Katy, hope you’ve recovered from yesterday’s Shakespearean epics, full of plot twists and turns,” emails Jeremy Boyce. “If today’s final lives up to the level and drama of those matches the crowd will be in for a treat. And possibly wishing that the women played five sets too. No pressure then. Whatever the outcome let’s hope neither of the combatants ends up feeling like an animal in the zoo and that any racket smashing is tolerated in the same way as grunting and other expressions of passion and effort.”

Rybakina says:

Last match we played here [in the 2023 final], it was very close. Throughout the match I had some little opportunities, but in the end of this third set, Aryna stepped in. She deserved that win.

Of course many years passed, a lot of matches has been played. Hopefully with all the experience which I got from this last match, last time final I played here, I can bring it to Saturday’s match and do my best, focus on my serve, of course. Since we are both very aggressive players, serve is important. Hopefully this time it’s gonna go my way.

Sabalenka says:

Her shots are heavy, deep, flat balls. It’s not easy to work with, but we have a great history. She’s incredible player. We had a lot of great battles, a lot of finals we played. I’m looking forward to [battling] this power.

Rybakina
First round def Kaja Juvan 6-4, 6-3
Second round def Varvara Gracheva 7-5, 6-2
Third round def Tereza Valentova 6-2, 6-3
Fourth round def Elise Mertens (21) 6-1, 6-3
Quarter-final def Iga Swiatek (2) 7-5, 6-1
Semi-final def Jessica Pegula (6) 6-3, 7-6

Sabalenka
First round def Tiantsoa Rakotomanga Rajaonah 6-4, 6-1
Second round def Bai Zhuoxuan 6-3, 6-1
Third round def Anastasia Potapova 7-6, 7-6
Fourth round def Victoria Mboko (17) 6-1, 7-6
Quarter-final def Iva Jovic (29) 6-3, 6-0
Semi-final def Elina Svitolina (12) 6-2, 6-3

Road to the final. Both have generated dangerous momentum as the tournament has progressed and are yet to drop a set. Sabalenka turned into something of a teen hunter to halt the breakthrough runs of Victoria Mboko and Iva Jovic, before brutally ending the 31-year-old Elina Svitolina’s hopes of a first slam title in the last four. But while Sabalenka’s level has been eye-catching, Rybakina has had the tougher route to this final, and has defeated two top-six players in Iga Swiatek and Jessica Pegula. And when Rybakina gets on a roll, it’s very hard to stop her.

Tale of the tape
Sabalenka – Rybakina
27 Age 26
1 Seeding 5
1 World ranking 5
4 Grand slam titles 1
8 Grand slam finals 3
22 Singles titles 11
8 Head-to-head 6

And a lovely gallery of the best images from week two as well:

Already today, Britain’s Neal Skupski and his American partner Christian Harrison have claimed the men’s doubles title in their first slam together. Skupski – who also triumphed at Wimbledon in 2023 – and Harrison beat the Australians Jason Kubler and Marc Polmans 7-6, 6-4. It continues Britain’s recent advances in men’s doubles – it’s the third time in the past five majors that one British player has triumphed in the event and there are no less than five players currently in the world’s top 10 – and we can only hope that some of that success will extend into the singles in the future too. Having Jack Draper back fit and healthy would help; he could return after five months out injured in Britain’s Davis Cup tie against Norway next week.