The witty Anglo-American author Ashleigh Brilliant passed away last September at the age of 91, but his best lines are timeless. Beleaguered sports coaches worldwide will all recognise one of his characteristically pithy observations: “I try to take one day at a time – but sometimes several days attack me at once.” To be responsible for an under-pressure national side must induce a similar feeling.

So what do you do when coaching life starts serving you lemons? After a while there are only two options: try to ride it out, or accept it might be wiser for someone else to have a go. It can be a delicate judgment, often shaped by non-sporting considerations. Unless it becomes apparent, as seemingly happened with the recently ousted All Blacks coach Scott Robertson, that your dressing room has already made the call for you.

In many cases – although not in Robertson’s – it can simply be that people have been listening to the same old voice for too long. It is not that a coach’s powers have necessarily declined, merely that his or her words are going in one ear and straight out the other. Familiarity and consistent messaging are great until, suddenly, people want to hear something fresh.

Which brings us to Gregor Townsend, head coach of a Scotland team whose inconsistency has become a defining characteristic. Townsend has been in charge of Scotland for almost nine years, having served previously as backs coach for a couple more. Only in September Scottish Rugby renewed his contract to the 2027 Rugby World Cup, choosing to stick rather than twist with Glasgow’s successful front man Franco Smith.

In the wake of the 18-15 defeat against Italy last Saturday, that decision has again come under scrutiny given the potential of the squad at Townsend’s disposal, his side hustle with Newcastle Red Bulls and Glasgow’s success under Smith. John Barclay, who captained Scotland under Townsend, told BBC Sport that if the team do not finish in the top three of this season’s Six Nations then change will become “a necessity”.

It is certainly becoming harder, given Scotland were ranked fifth in the world when Townsend took over and are now down in 10th, for anyone to claim the team and the jersey (what was that purple monstrosity in Rome?) are in a better place than when he found them. Which is sad on several levels. Townsend has been in thrall to rugby since his earliest days in Galashiels and was a Scottish legend as a player. When the Scots won in Paris for the first time in 20 years in 1995, it was his offload – the famous “Toonie flip” – that opened history’s door.

Then, in 1999, he became the first Scotsman since 1925 to score a try in every game as his country claimed what still remains their most recent Championship title. That gets mentioned less these days because, in modern-day sport, people have increasingly short memories. However, even five wins and a draw against England in the last eight meetings cannot deflect from the fact that Scotland, under Townsend, have never finished higher than third in the final table or made it out of the World Cup pool stages.

Townsend, though, is standing firm for now. “I believe in the players, I believe in what we’re doing,” he insisted in the wake of the disappointment on Saturday. “It didn’t happen and we’ve got to make sure it happens next week.”

It ensures an even more fervid backdrop to the Calcutta Cup encounter at Murrayfield this Saturday, particularly with the Azzurri having now leapfrogged Scotland in the world rankings. Maybe there is still a chance to inspire some more uplifting headlines, the impact of which have never been lost on Townsend. His father used to be a print setter for the local Borders paper and he himself once had a paper round which involved delivering more than 100 papers a day.

But there is also the law of diminishing returns which, at some stage, affects almost everyone in a tracksuit. Eddie Jones and Warren Gatland both had remarkable coaching careers but also discovered how difficult the endgame can be. Even Gatland, whose first stint with Wales spanned 12 years from 2008 to 2019 and coincided with three grand slams and two World Cup semi-finals, could not rekindle the magic in his second spell.

In football, the classic case study is probably Germany’s Joachim Löw. Under his tutelage Germany won the World Cup in 2014, eight years after he took over. He should have quit then. Instead Germany were knocked out in the pool stages four years later and, after 15 years in the job, there were few tears when Löw finally moved on in 2021.

It is a recurring theme the more you look at it. Clive Woodward won the Rugby World Cup with England after six years in charge, Graham Henry did the same with New Zealand after seven years. Joe Schmidt did amazing things for Irish rugby but after six years the players had grown tired of his exacting methods. As Eddie Jones observes in Brendan Fanning’s illuminating book Touching Distance: “Joe brought detail, he brought precision, he brought a hard work ethic with players working above and beyond what they would normally do. And like everything, it runs its race.”

Much to ponder there for Townsend, Rassie Erasmus – first appointed as Springbok head coach in 2018 – and Andy Farrell and Fabien Galthié, now six years in charge of Ireland and France respectively. For most Test rugby head coaches – or at least those without an endless supply of world-class forwards – the magic seems to fade after six to eight years, regardless of the ability of the name over the door. Longevity is great but it only takes you so far.

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