Paris Saint-German v Chelsea

The Club World Cup final victory over Paris Saint-Germain last summer was probably Enzo Maresca’s finest hour as Chelsea manager. He devised a gameplan, pinging balls over Nuno Mendes for Cole Palmer to chase, backed up by Malo Gusto, that tore the European champions apart in the first half. Liam Rosenior may try to exploit the same vulnerability, but this is a Chelsea that look weary, their exertions in the US perhaps having left them fatigued.

PSG’s recent form has been indifferent, as proved by the fact they were forced into the playoff round by a defeat by Sporting and a draw against Newcastle in their final two league-phase games, before limping to a 5-4 aggregate win over Monaco. But then they looked unimpressive until this stage last season as well.

Verdict Narrow PSG win.

Galatasaray v Liverpool

Liverpool have won only one of five previous meetings with Galatasaray, their league-phase defeat in Istanbul in September part of their miserable autumn. But four of those games were more than 20 years ago and Liverpool, while still nowhere near the level of last season, are a more solid team now than they were five months ago, while Florian Wirtz had begun to find his feet before his injury.

Galatasaray showed both sides of their character against Juventus in the playoff round. They were exceptional in the second half of the first leg at home and Victor Osimhen may have a physical edge over the heart of Liverpool’s defence. But in the second leg, even against 10 men, they wobbled badly, losing discipline and self-belief.

Verdict Comfortable Liverpool win.

Real Madrid v Manchester City

The players change, the managers change, the format changes, and somehow Manchester City always end up playing Real Madrid. The sides had never met in a competitive game until 2012; these two legs will bring their meetings since to 17, including in the league phase in December, when City withstood early pressure to win 2-1 at the Bernabéu.

This will be the fifth straight season in which City and Madrid have met in the knockouts, with Madrid having prevailed on three occasions. Although City are beginning to click into form, having won seven of their last eight in all competitions, they are not the all-conquering side of old, but Madrid, having sacked Xabi Alonso, are also flawed, a gaggle of great individuals having not quite coalesced into a coherent whole.

Verdict Narrow City win.

Atalanta v Bayern Munich

Bayern Munich are perhaps the side most likely to prevent a Premier League success. They have lost just once all season in the Bundesliga and are averaging more than 3.5 goals per game in a system that gets the best out of Harry Kane. He has scored 43 goals in all competitions this season and his habit of dropping deep is complemented by Michael Olise, Serge Gnabry and Luis Díaz running beyond him.

Bayern finished the league phase second behind Arsenal, their only dropped points coming at the Emirates Stadium, where they were outclassed and lost 3-1. Atalanta’s comeback to overhaul a 2-0 first-leg deficit against Borussia Dortmund in the playoff round was stirring but they are not the side they were when they won the Europa League in 2024 and lie seventh in Serie A.

Verdict Comfortable Bayern win.

Newcastle v Barcelona

For Newcastle fans, any mention of Barcelona will always conjure images of Faustino Asprilla’s hat-trick in their 3-2 win in the Champions League in 1997. They’ve lost all four meetings since, though, including in the league phase in September. That 2-1 defeat at St James’ Park, though, should give Newcastle hope: they were far from outclassed and showed a clear physical edge.

A combination of set plays and pace in behind Barcelona’s remarkably high line could be a path to the quarter-final. That high line places huge stress on Barça’s press; any slip-up and Hansi Flick’s side are wide open, which in the end was what cost them in last season’s semi-final. They are top of La Liga, though, and only Arsenal scored more goals in the league phase.

Verdict Narrow Barcelona win.

Atlético Madrid v Tottenham

Tottenham have met Atlético Madrid only once, but it was one of the most famous nights in the history of the club as Bill Nicholson’s side romped to a 5-1 win in the 1963 Cup Winners’ Cup final in Rotterdam, making them the first British club to lift a European trophy. For Spurs this season, the priority has to be avoiding relegation, and it remains to be seen what impact Igor Tudor will have.

Under Thomas Frank, Europe brought a sense of relief. Only Arsenal let in fewer goals, and five of the seven they did concede came in their only defeat, at PSG. Atlético have had a mixed season and lie a frustrating fourth in La Liga. They lost to Liverpool and Arsenal in the league phase.

Verdict Narrow Atlético win.

Bodø/Glimt v Sporting

Having been one of only two non-English sides, along with Juventus, not to have played a Premier League side in the league phase, Sporting’s luck held as they were drawn against by far the least-fancied side in the last 16.

Bodø/Glimt didn’t win a game in the league phase before Christmas but then beat Manchester City and Atlético to qualify for the playoff round, where they were highly impressive in beating Inter over two legs, despite having to play a very different style of football to the possession-heavy approach they take domestically. Momentum and their artificial pitch north of the Arctic Circle give them a chance.

Verdict Narrow Sporting win.

Bayer Leverkusen v Arsenal

Arsenal won every game in the league phase. They scored the most goals and they conceded the fewest. Last season, Liverpool gained no advantage from finishing top, but Arsenal have. It’s not just that they face Leverkusen, sixth in the Bundesliga, in the last 16, it’s that if they win they will face Bodø/Glimt or Sporting in the quarter-final.

The clubs have met only once, in 2002, when Arsenal drew 1-1 away and won 4-1 at home in the second group stage, and there’s every chance of something similar here. Although Leverkusen did beat Manchester City at the Etihad in the league phase, that was one of only three victories, and in their only other game against Premier League opposition they needed a late equaliser to force a home draw with Newcastle.

Verdict Comfortable Arsenal win.