The rule changes and AFL adjustments keep coming with the introduction of wildcard round and an extension of the finals series the biggest for many years. But even with 10 clubs playing beyond the home-and-away season for the first time, there will always be teams heading in the wrong direction or simply well off the pace.

In the first of a three-part series on 2026 predictions, here’s how we see the bottom part of the ladder playing out.

18th: Richmond

Wooden spoon predictions are rarely brimming with optimism. But this is a great time to be a Richmond person. The possibilities are endless, the pressure is off, the level of fan engagement is still high, a few of the kids seem capable of almost anything and most of their sworn enemies are going dreadfully.

In 2025, they had some rotten luck with injuries. The Noah Balta assault case and curfew hung over the entire season. The midfield struggled, and didn’t seem built for the way footy is being played in the mid-2020s. They had a dirty afternoon against Adelaide, and the Essendon clash must rank among one of the worst games of football ever played.

But there was a lot to be positive about. The backline was excellent. The veterans stood up. The kids showed glimpses. The coach Adem Yze found his feet. The Carlton win will be cherished for decades. And they never completely turned up their toes. Build upon that, play some bolder, riskier footy and maybe send a bitter rival or two into another doom spiral, and it will be a successful season.

17th: West Coast

“I’m excited but, yeah, she’ll be hard,” Harley Reid said last October. And, yeah, she will be. The Eagles were just the fifth team in half a century to win a single game last year. But as far as one-win seasons go, it was no disaster. There were signs that they are on the right track and in good hands. They led Brisbane, Collingwood and Port Adelaide away, and nearly knocked off the ladder leading Adelaide in their best performance of the year. They should have won several more games. They pissed away the North Melbourne game, a soul and sanity sapping affair in Bunbury. And they lost four others by less than 10 points.

The Eagles simply weren’t fit enough this time last year. But they’re a lot better conditioned this time around. Tom McCarthy looks an outstanding prospect and Reid came back in phenomenal shape. Things will turn a lot quicker for this team than most people think.

16th: Essendon

For Essendon people, and certainly for Zach Merrett and his coach Brad Scott, it was hard to know whether to laugh or cry last October. But given the year they’d had, the club had to look at it as a win.

The Bombers were a cot case last year. Scott addressed last year’s best and fairest with his arm in a sling. It was fitting in a way, though a soft tissue injury would have been more appropriate. When he was luring players to the club, he laid out all the misfortunes that had befallen his team in a PowerPoint presentation. The presentation was presumably peppered with Red Cross symbols. At one point, they had 20 players on their injury list.

It can only get better from here. Scott has the makings of a good team. He’s good at coaching on the fly, and at making silk purses out of sows’ ears. After so many misses, there’s a lot to like about the players they’ve selected at the past few drafts. Now they just need an ounce of luck, a dose of realism, and a lot of patience – qualities that haven’t been in abundance at Essendon for a long time.

15th: North Melbourne

A single passage of play in a North Melbourne game can drive even a neutral to the ledge. A defender will make a desperate spoil, they’ll clear the backline, whereupon the ruck will iron out someone with a legal shepherd, paving the way for a lovely three man link up. And then they’ll completely cock up the final kick. The ball will trampoline up the other end and the aforementioned defender – who 10 seconds ago was so resolute and composed – will be tripping over his own feet. To summarise – they’re an infuriating team. Dermott Brereton, who finally exceeded his word limit at Fox Footy, did a lot of North games and mostly saw the positives. But in one game last year, as the Roos conceded three goals in as many minutes, Brereton was unusually succinct, saying, “My God they’re frustrating, these lads.”

The Kangaroos can’t keep doing this to their fans. If it wasn’t for their dominant women’s team, the supporter base would be coming with pitchforks. They have to get a lot better, and they have the midfield and the forwards to start the rise. But the way they defend the entire ground is a shambles. Many of the first half-dozen games are winnable. But if they make a meal of them, tough questions need to be asked about the way they’re coached and the players’ willingness to defend.

14th: Port Adelaide

Port couldn’t take a trick in 2025. For most of the season, they were marking time. They had a brutal draw. Todd Marshall’s achilles tendon exploded in January and the injuries kept mounting from there. In the end, 40 players were called upon, including three from the mid-season draft. They were clearly trying to implement a different gameplan, but they simply didn’t have the cattle to execute it. It was the first season under departing coach Ken Hinkley where they won less than 10 games, and the first time where they had a short breaking point. Four of their losses were by 15 goals or more.

The Power were an un-club at the draft. They had 11 people in the draft room, but they didn’t make a pick or trade. The staffers were all eating Barbecue Shapes and trying to look serious. They’re a bit of an unknown quantity this year, and a difficult team to assess. Their top end talent is exceptional. And it’s worth remembering that the guts of the team that was playing some of the best football in the competition in late 2024 is still there. I’m just not convinced they have the depth and the young talent to spike.

13th: Collingwood

“We own the fucking corridor!” Darcy Moore screamed at his teammates as the second half of the preliminary final got under way. But it was Brisbane’s corridor, Brisbane’s final, Brisbane’s era. The Lions had too much depth, too many tricks, and too many things go their way. Even the most one-eyed of Collingwood supporters, and we all know a few of those, would have walked away from that game conceding that the better side had won.

This is a proud club and a group that prides itself on fighting for every inch and for every second of every game. The coach Craig McRae comes with an almost preternatural optimism and it seeps through the entire club and supporter base. There is no better team at bucking public opinion, at walking into hostile environments and winning. The Magpies have one of the best players in the competition, a proven system, and proof that they can still be competitive with the best. After all, they were leading a crack Brisbane side at half-time of a preliminary final.

But time waits for no one. And when you look at Collingwood’s age profile, you wince. That said, it’s not their older players who are of the most concern. The ongoing unavailability of Bobby Hill is an enormous disappointment for all involved. They gave up a lot for Dan Houston, who was a tentative and tardy footballer last year. And it’s hard to get overly enthused by the younger crop coming through. I’ve loved watching the McRae-era Pies more than almost any other team I can remember. In 2022, they played some of the most exhilarating football I’ve ever seen. The following year, they played some of the smartest. But I think they’re on a cliff edge.

AFL 2026 predicted ladder part two will be published tomorrow, and part three on Wednesday