12th: Melbourne

Melbourne recently released a membership video that leaned into the cliches and the disappointment – one of the better executed and coherent offerings from the club in recent years. They were eight wins off finals last year. But they beat Brisbane at the Gabba, nearly beat Collingwood twice and ran top-placed Adelaide close. They lost half a dozen games by eight points or less.

The new coach Steven King wants them to make mistakes, take risks and play with freedom and flair. They have drafted and trained for speed. At first glance, it’s a very different approach to the cautious, rigid teams of Simon Goodwin. It’s a good team to be a new coach of. It’s a clean slate but it’s not a rebuild. He has more champions and emerging talent to work with than most new coaches. He has rid himself of some hard-to-manage stars. And he has Kysaiah Pickett, who’s been moving like a pronghorn in trial games.

11th: Carlton

An anxiety enveloped Carlton last year. For those in the stands, distributing off back, angling for a lifestyle change or simply writing columns about them, it was hard not to inhale it.

Whether it’s the coach at the best and fairest, a player fronting the press after a bad loss or a pokies grub on speed dial, they speak of the jumper, the history, the fans. But the only decisions that matter are made by outsiders. CEO Graham Wright was the ultimate outsider – a Collingwood man. He was given a lot of power, a lot of resources and a lot of time. He read the room, poured over the data and concluded that Michael Voss was not the problem, and that the team was capable of bouncing back quickly. It was a brave and unexpected move. And it was the first time the club took a deep breath all year.

Voss still talks about contest and clearance far too often for my liking. But there are grounds for medium-and-long-term optimism. Jagga Smith is absolutely heaven sent, Sam Walsh is signed until the middle of the 2030s, they’ll be better off without the distraction of Charlie Curnow and there are some outstanding prospects coming through. The challenge – for Wright, for the club, for fans and for those analysing them – will be the changed parameters within which the team and the coach are judged. “Ownership alignment,” Voss calls it.

10th: St Kilda

There was a patch in the middle of the 2025 season where it felt like the entire club had run out of puff, talent and hope. The coach was still swinging but he needed a win, a holiday and a new hip. They lost to the Eagles. They were eviscerated twice in as many months by the Western Bulldogs. No one was really talking about them. Only the really hardy turned up to watch them.

But then Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera went berserk. It came out of nowhere. It placed the club at the centre of the news cycle. It secured him for another two years. It ended the senior coaching career of Simon Goodwin. And it engaged and galvanised the most loyal but hard bitten of supporter bases.

Ross Lyon has been in fine fettle this summer. He knows how to play the media. He has a long memory. And he fights dirty. But does he have the cattle? Besides Wanganeen-Milera and the new recruits, the case for optimism lies squarely with the young players Lyon has nurtured, protected, clipped and cuddled. They’re the key to extricating St Kilda from footy’s lower middle class.

9th: Geelong

Geelong excel at putting bad losses behind them. In the immediate aftermath of last year’s grand final, Chris Scott was framing it as an aberration, and hinting, as he tends to do, at mitigating circumstances. But the Cats were pulverised by the Lions, and footy history suggests that teams struggle to bounce back from losses like that.

A lot went right for them last year. They only played two top-eight teams from the previous year twice, and they lost all four games. They had double ups against Richmond, St Kilda, Essendon and Port Adelaide.

The Cats have been footy’s bank cheque for a long time. And there is sometimes an assumption that they’ve cracked the code. But they remain a flawed team. Their midfield can still be got at. Patrick Dangerfield turns 36 next month, Jeremy Cameron is still injured, Tyson Stengle is on leave and Bailey Smith may be more difficult to manage in his second season. Chris Scott teams almost always start the season well. But with key players unavailable, they have a challenging opening month, and will have played four genuine premiership aspirants by Easter.

8th: GWS

The Giants were unsettled and at no stage entirely convincing last season. They were always chasing their games. There was no better team at ripping off a sublime half hour of football. But they were often asleep at the post when it mattered. We keep being told that they’re built for finals. And they keep losing finals from winning positions. They’ve played in three or four of the great finals of recent years. But they’ve lost them all. Last year, they didn’t take their opportunities and capitalise on their momentum. Ultimately, Hawthorn was the more trustworthy team.

And now they’ve lost their best player for the season. Tom Green is the one who does the dirty work, who gets them out into space and moving. Sam Taylor is an enormous loss to that backline. And with Josh Kelly out for the year with what’s being called “a hip resurfacement”, their depth and resolve will be tested. A lot will be expected of Clayton Oliver, picked up for a future third round selection, and hardly a model of rectitude in recent years. But as the documentary they recently released emphasised, this is a resilient group that’s still capable of brilliant football. If Green, who has suffered a serious knee injury at training, was available I’d have them a lot higher.

7th: Western Bulldogs

I think many of us love the idea of this team. But they’re a hard team to trust. It’s easy to be seduced by them. It’s easy for everyone involved when they’re dismantling one of their bunny teams under the roof. It’s easy when Sam Darcy is booting eight goals in a kick and giggle (on his own defenders, mind you, which is half the problem). It’s easy to get swept up in the Champion Data ratings.

But data can tease. Data can lie. Data and ratings are useless during a seven goal run on in 15 minutes, when your defenders are on their heels, pointing their fingers and watching the ball sail over their heads. The fans who watch them every week are the best judges here. They see the same movie play out year after year. They see an occasionally brilliant, often baffling and ultimately frustrating team.

Luke Beveridge spent summer caravanning, song-writing and mapping out orienteering courses. At the Charlie Sutton medal, he spoke about Buddhism, Manfred Mann, and nights out at Hammer Hall with his wife. He spoke about the 14 wins and a table of supporters tentatively applauded. “Don’t clap, ‘cos that’s mediocrity,” he said. “But I appreciate the sentiment.” A lot of us appreciate the sentiment when it comes to the Western Bulldogs. We love Marcus Bontempelli. We love the way they attack. We’d love to see them get another flag. If they can learn to defend, they’ll win back a lot of trust and they’re capable of anything.

The final part of our predicted ladder will be published on Wednesday