Remarkably, considering the format, this is the 16th Origin series in a row that will end 2-1. There have been only two sweeps since 1997.

Fitness permitting, Billy Slater has no such concerns. He named a largely unchanged team tonight and can look forward to Reece Walsh getting another game under his belt with the Broncos to recapture some form in case he is needed to perform a miracle off the bench.

It will be fascinating to see what Laurie Daley does before game III. There were plenty of changes between the first two matches, reflecting how his side was second best 13 v 13 in Sydney, and you’d think there’ll be more to come for Brisbane.

McLean is likely to slot back in, if he recovers from his injury, but any other decisions will be statement calls on big name players that will come to define this second iteration of Daley’s NSW coaching career. How bold will he be?

The Blues won the forward battle in the opening half but failed to press home their advantage. Robson was soundly beaten by Grant and Moses did little more than kick the ball miles, compared to the nous and leadership of Munster.

Nawaqanitawase finished brilliantly – he is quite something, Young ran for over 100 metres and laid 40+ tackles, but collectively there was a spark missing, the kind Ethan Strange provided in Sydney.

Despite attacking with such elan Queensland completed 39/42 sets. The mix of Grant, Walker, Munster, and Ponga makes for such a varied collection of ball players, all capable of taking the game on and executing under pressure.

Add to that the form of Tabuai-Fidow and Cobbo on the left, and the made-for-Origin industry of Toia and Fifita on the right, and you have a formidable array of weapons.

That was an incredible second half demolition by the Maroons. NSW had the upper hand at the break but whatever Billy Slater said in the sheds his charges executed it to perfection over the next 40 minutes. Grant was purposeful, Cobbo had the game of his life, Ponga was destructive, Munster was poised, and Walker was 8/8 off the tee and superb in open field play.

79 mins: 68 points – currently the second highest scoring Origin ever.

78 mins: Cleary drops a soda on tackle four. The sooner this ends the better for NSW.

76 mins: Discussion on the TV has already turned to what NSW must do to arrest their decline. They have been eviscerated in the second half today. They were second best for an hour in Sydney. But for that Ponga send off they could be on the back of an historic hiding.

74 mins: Queensland execute a textbook restart set. NSW can’t get out of their own half, despite a bullocking run from Young.

91,671 is the confirmed crowd in the MCG – a new Origin record, by about 100 patrons.

73 mins: We’re going to another series decider in Brisbane.

70 mins: Queensland eat up the tackles in the red zone. Ponga almost gets some room on the right, then on the last Loiero finds an offload that’s touched and the Maroons get six more in the shadow of the posts! This is like a boxer being pummelled on the ropes.

68 mins: It’s 13 v 12 so Queensland just go sideline to sideline, running the Blues ragged. NSW do well to stand their ground and force the Maroons to kick. Walker does just that, a grubber, that the chasers follow to drag Tedesco in goal. The resulting drop out is marked by the imperious Cobbo.

67 mins: Tedesco manages 10m from the restart this time but Queensland still come up with the ball. Robson is then penalised for stripping Walker after the tackle on halfway and there’s no love lost between the Roosters teammates as the kick is send down to the left corner to set up another attacking opportunity.

66 mins: Grant has been magnificent tonight, dominating from the play-the-ball.

65 mins: NSW try the short kick off but Tedesco can only execute an absolute shank that doesn’t travel 10m and Queensland can ram home their advantage.

What will happen to Staggs? He will get time, but is it 10 or 20?

62 mins: Queensland were furious with the referee in the aftermath of that score. The whole momentum of the match has turned on that decision not to penalise Young and Robson for not wrapping in the tackle. The Blues are now fizzing and the Maroons have to regroup.

58 mins: Collins spills the ball on the restart carry. Queensland challenge, looking for a shoulder charge – which isn’t forthcoming – despite neither Young nor Robson wrapping. The bunker is decisive. Cameron Smith is absolutely furious on TV.

54 mins: Laurie Daley looks haunted in the NSW box as Queensland run the restart safely out of defence.

51 mins: Queensland make it to 20m and Munster has two to target in the right corner against only To'o. The kick is dangerous but the Panther competes in the air and is satisfied to concede the knock-on.

50 mins: Loiero has been good off the bench and he and Grant run Queensland out of their defensive end from the restart. Tedesco offloads on tackle four as the Blues cross halfway then cut to the right to watch Staggs gain more metres after contact. Cleary tries the cute chip and chase but Ponga is not only alive to it but able to sidestep away from the chase then hurdle the despairing Cleary. NSW do well to regroup but on the last Walker’s kick is charged down and lands back Queensland’s way for another set on halfway.

46 mins: Another mighty stroke of luck for the Blues. Kicking on the last 25m out the ball strikes a Queenslander – Plath – and bounces NSW’s way. To’o can run it to halfway and set up attacking field position out of absolutely nothing. Can NSW capitalise? No, Radley loses in contact 20m from home.

44 mins: NSW can only make it 25m coming out of defence, not that it matters if you have Moses in your team. His massive boot is returned again by Cobbo, who steamrollers Cleary as he runs out to the 30. Queensland build down the right with Nikora busy before Munster lands his bomb perfectly, inches from the line, that To’o has to gather and surrender immediately. The chase is intense and NSW again struggle to clear their lines.

42 mins: Lucas with metres after contact but the drive is stalled when Murray is forced to dive to hold onto a poor pass. In response Cobbo takes the kick and glides by the chasing Young and out to his 40m line. Munster, back on the field, links with Ponga down the left. The skipper can hoist an attacking kick from 20m out, but Nawaqanitawase is unchallenged under it.

41 mins: Ponga with the shallow restart and we’re back under way at the MCG.

“Just settle down,” is Billy Slater’s message at the break.

“Don’t go into our shell,” is Laurie Daley’s.

That half was played on NSW terms. Tedesco’s energy, Staggs’s drive, Haas’s power, Cleary’s control, and Moses’s boot all caught the eye. But that said, their two scores came from unstructured footy, the first try a nightmare from Flegler, the second a bonus from Munster’s inability to drag in a kick.

Queensland lacked oomph up front and once Munster left the field for his HIA there was nobody to share kicking duties with the Walker, who trails Moses in distance by about 20 metres.

38 mins: Flegler’s horror night continues, deflecting a NSW palm-back straight into Blue hands on his defensive 20. With the wind in their sails the Blues attack dangerously to the right but Nawaqanitawase is hauled in. Then they go to the left but To’o runs out of space. Still they come through Young until bosh – a thumping hit from Fifita takes man and ball into touch for a massive sigh of relief.

37 mins: To prove the point Walker kicks shallow on the last straight to Nawaqanitawase, who reaches his defensive 40m line before he’s hauled in. NSW are building.

36 mins: NSW run out to halfway, kick to Cobbo, and gang tackle the Dolphin on his 10m line. Walker spots space in behind and kicks early in the set for a 40-20 but To’o scrambles well. Cleary marshals a steadying drive, one featuring both centres running strong lines. The kick on the last is enormous and Tedesco flies through to claim it at pace but Cobbo does magnificently to win the duel. The kicking game of the Blues is a massive advantage.

34 mins: Tino gets close one out. Walker grubbers on tackle three – Toia and To’o are in a foot race for the touchdown, and the Panther is first to it to slap it behind. And out of nowhere the bunker calls a knock-on against Toia just as the dropout was about to be taken! Massive bonus for NSW with Queensland exerting repeat pressure.

32 mins: Queensland with a full set 20m out. Walker and Grant invite their forwards to drive one out. Then they go to the right with Ponga into the line before Toia accepts the tackle. The Maroons try to go side to side but execution is lacking and Tabuai-Fidow does well to rescue it with a toe-poke off the deck that forces Staggs to slap the ball out of play. Queensland get another shot from 15m.

31 mins: Radley almost takes Loiero’s head off with a characteristically wild high tackle. Queensland want more than just a penalty but Klein isn’t biting. Instead they get a set inside attacking 30. Ponga steps up to play No 6 and guides his team down the left – then Radley is pinged for another high swinging arm! This time on Nikora.

30 mins: Neat from the Blues to draw bodies to the left edge. Young and Yeo in particular are busy. That opens room on the right for NSW to go through hands, which they do, until it’s with Nawaqanitawase with only Cobbo to beat. The Rooster leaps, reaches horizontal, then bends double backwards in the air, and plants the ball down near the corner flag. Is he over!? No! By a mater of milimetres the ball is planted partly on the sideline in-goal. Almost an incredible finish.

28 mins: Queensland make little ground from the restart and Walker’s kick is shallow. NSW are soon inside the Maroons’ 30 – where Koula is caught high by Walker for a penalty. The Blues decline the two points and kick to the left corner.

27 mins: Interesting. Munster had his head slammed into the deck during that incredible move and he has been invited to take an HIA. Queensland bring Cotter on as his replacement. Will he play five-eighth for the next 15 minutes?

26 mins: Queensland have a full set in attacking territory but make little impact. On the last Walker kicks to the Hammer who does well in the air but the ball lands kindly for NSW a couple of metres from the try line. The Blues run out of defence and invite Moses to kick 65m on the fly to Cobbo. Daley’s tactics are all paying off so far.

25 mins: Cobbo gets away with an awful defensive decision to step out of his line and jam in, only to be bypassed by NSW like he’s not there. Munster bails him out with a superb tackle that dislodges the pill from Staggs’ grasp in the process. The Maroons are only just holding on here.

24 mins: Queensland need to find something here, and soon. NSW are winning the battle up front and they are playing well within themselves – Penrith-like – for the time being.

That earlier interchange for Tino was a an HIA it turns out. I’ll keep you updated.

19 mins: Ponga defuses a Moses bomb like it’s a training exercise, but his side has no go-forward at the moment with the Blues pack on top. Collins is also on the field, that’s two interchanges used already by Slater, and no sign of Reece Walsh.

18 mins: NSW remain conservative with ball in hand, probing gently down the left then hitting hard down the right with the dynamic Staggs again impressive. The Blues look drilled to avoid the errors that ruined their opening half in Sydney. Queensland make little ground in reply but Munster buys them metres with a mighty wobbling floater that Tedesco does well to mark.

16 mins: Queensland get a full set inside 30m. They look dangerous on the left through Tabiso-Fidow. Loiero comes off the interchange to make an impact. But then on the last Walker grubbers much too deep and NSW are donated a seven tackle relieving set.

15 mins: Queensland get a set restart for offside on their own 30 which gives Grant confidence to direct play through hands to the right. Walker then goes for a dance – until he’s rag-dolled by Young, a little high. Nikora steps in to defend his little halfback and there’s a minor set-to, nothing to write home about.

14 mins: Koula earns some tough metres after contact to drive his side out of their defensive 20. A ruck infringement on the 40 gifts the Blues six again and for the first time tonight they can set up attacking territory. Staggs runs a good angle, Yeo makes a good step, and Barnett takes them to the 20. Moses kicks high to the right corner for the leaping Nawaqanitawase but the former Wallaby can only knock on after showing springheels.

13 mins: Grant and Munster control things for Queensland as they drive conservatively inside the rede zone. On the last Walker kicks high to the right corner where To’o looks vulnerable in the aerial contest with Fifita. The ball comes to ground – off the Titan, into the Panther – and it’s a let-off for the Blues.

12 mins: To’o deals with his first bomb of the night before Tedesco cuts and darts his way for a brief line-break. NSW try to expand behind it to the right but Staggs overruns the pass and the ball dribbles out of play. Queensland will take the handover 30m out.

10 mins: NSW make no mistakes from their restart. They kick to Fifita on the last as the Maroons rumble to attacking 40 behind some good metres from Tino.

8 mins: From the kick-off Flegler receives the offload and just shells it. The onrushing Nawaqanitawase picks it up off his boot laces, accepts three tacklers and still manages to offload inside where the ball beats Cleary, but not Staggs, who gathers and muscles his way over the line. Absolute calamity for Queensland.

6 mins: Finally there’s some creativity and it’s the Maroons going through hands to the left to allow Cobbo some space to gallop into. There’s an offload that clips the legs of Nawaqanitawase, gifting Queensland six again in attacking territory. Munster sharks, the Maroons are building up a head of steam, but just as Grant begins to scheme from under the posts Cleary reaches out and swipes the Steeden from his clutches at dummy-half. A clear penalty and a simple two points for Sam Walker, you’d expect.

4 mins: Safe and sound again from Queensland, who again elect to kick towards Nawaqanitawase, not To’o, despite the latter struggling under the high ball last time out. No risks from NSW either who look to find room down the left before belting long to Ponga. Neither side taking any chances early.

2 mins: It’s a high hanging kick-off from Moses that Flegler runs to the ten metre line. His forward colleagues shove the Maroons as far as the 40 before Munster kicks long to Nawaqanitawase – who slips – before regaining momentum and hitting the line hard. Tedesco is lively as NSW complete a steady set, one that ends with a Cleary bomb that Ponga takes spectacularly under intense aerial pressure from Moses.

Prematch formalities taken care of, the 137th Origin fixture is just seconds from kick-off.

Now it’s over to NSW, led by Isaah Yeo. His team are wearing sky blue tops with navy shorts. There’s even more of a racket as they come out, with plenty of boos offered in their direction. There is no love lost between Victoria and NSW.

Here come the Queenslanders, top to toe in Maroon, led out by hometown hero Cameron Munster. It is noisy in the G.

It’s dry and relatively mild tonight in Melbourne. There is a stiff northerly breeze which may become a factor as it swirls around capriciously in the vast MCG.

NSW proved in Origin I that representative footy isn’t won in the opening half but the Blues must be concerned that they have bee outscored a combined 66-12 in the first periods of their past three matches.

With the MCG only barely illuminated, Cathy Freeman is spotlit as she delivers the match ball to the centre spot.

The current Origin record crowd stands at 91,513 when the Blues beat the Maroons at the G in 2015. Hopes are high for a new benchmark tonight.

The MCG has been a happy hunting ground for NSW, who have won five of the six matches played at the home of Australian Rules footy.

Tonight’s referee is Ashley Klein, but there have been calls the NRL should have found a replacement. Klein took centre stage in Origin I for his decision to send off Kalyn Ponga, and he has since been the subject of media stories due to his historic gambling activities. His performance will be scrutinised like no whistleblower before.

Laurie Daley is delighted to have Payne Haas back in his XIII: “the best front row in the game”, according to the NSW coach, and he’s relieved to be able to call upon the game management and kicking prowess of Mitchell Moses.

His pregame message: “No excuses.”

There is only one Bronco in the Queensland squad, Reece Walsh, and he is no guarantee to see much game time. These are curious times at the reigning premiers.

Billy Slater has a simple message to his team tonight:

Have confidence to chase your game. Don’t be fearful.

QLD Team News:

Billy Slater makes just the one change to his run-on side following 60 minutes of dominance in Sydney.

Briton Nikora and Max Plath trade places with the Kiwi international playing on an edge allowing Reuben Cotter to move to loose forward. On the bench Pat Carrigan (ankle) is replaced by debutant Kulikefu Finefeuiaki and the wounded and out-of-form pair of Ezra Mam and Gehamet Shibasaki are upgraded to Reece Walsh and Murray Taulagi, Walsh returning to the fold after his curious injury-cum-form exclusion from the first camp.

Tino Fa’asuamaleaui will play tonight following the death of his father Fereti, a former first-grade footballer, on Saturday.

NSW Team News:

Form and fitness has pressed Laurie Daley into six changes from the side that crept over the line in Origin I.

There’s a new pair of centres with Casey McLean injured (thigh) and Stephen Crichton (form & fitness). Tolu Koula moves in off the wing, replaced by newcomer Mark Nawaqanitawase, and Kotoni Staggs comes off the interchange with Jack Bostock becoming the utility back on the pine.

Mitch Moses has proven his fitness to start at five-eighth, while Payne Haas makes a welcome return in the front row, relegating Ethan Strange and Addin Fonua-Blake to the bench. The in-form Dylan Lucas is preferred to Haumole Olakau’atu in the second row, with the Manly man having to settle for the no 20 jersey.

Jacob Saifiti, Matt Burton, (dropped) and Blayke Brailey (broken arm) were in the 19 for Origin I but miss out tonight with Api Koroisau the second hooker at Daley’s disposal.

The G has welcomed Origin footy six times before, with NSW winning on five occasions. Victory tonight would give the Blues the shield and set them up for a crack at a first series sweep since 2000.

These sides first met in Melbourne in 1990, and most recently in 2024. On that occasion Mitch Moses guided the Blues to a 34-0 half-time lead on his way to the player of the match award.