As shocks come thick and fast in the knockout stages of the World Cup’s last 32, arguably the biggest of them all lies off the field and at the door of the economist and football forecaster Joachim Klement, who has failed to predict the winning nation for the first time in four editions of the men’s tournament.

After correctly predicting Germany, France and Argentina would go on to lift the trophy in 2014, 2018 and 2022 respectively, Klement’s run is over after his “economic models” pointed him in the direction of Ronald Koeman’s Netherlands side this year.

It all looked rather bright after a strong group stage for the Dutch – including a 5-1 hammering of Sweden as they topped Group F – but the lottery of penalties against Morocco, and some woeful misses from the spot, could not be accounted for. The Netherlands exited in the last 32 and Klement will have to wait another four years to flex his prognosticating muscles.

Writing a mea culpa to the world on his investment blog after the Netherlands’ exit, cryptic Klement said: “Eventually, after 12 years and being lucky in three World Cups, I ran out of luck. I set out to prove that economic models are not as accurate as many people believe and finally, I was proven right.”

So far, so humbling – but it was not his only fumble on Monday night. Klement’s model also predicted Japan would send Brazil to the big early World Cup bath. Again it was not to be after Gabriel Martinelli saved the Seleçao in stoppage time, prompting Neymar to give the forecaster short shrift on X. “Mr Joachim Klement … Please try again in the next World Cup,” the veteran forward posted.

In response to Neymar, Klement threw his full backing behind Brazil, saying “after last night I dare to believe as well”. Considering he also predicted Germany to sail into the last 16, Brazil supporters could be feeling rather anxious about their chances against either Côte d’Ivoire or Norway on Sunday.