If Mexico unlock Ecuador’s defence it is likely Julian Quinones will be involved.

Quiñones, 29, was born in Colombia, arrived in Mexico in 2015 and forged his career in Liga MX. He became a naturalized Mexican citizen in 2023 and was first called up to the national team that same year. His inclusion on the World Cup squad raises a question about race that Mexico has tried to avoid for much of its modern history: who has the right to be Mexican?

The answer is wrapped up in the national soccer program’s future, which increasingly lies beyond Mexico’s borders.

For much of the 20th century, the national team was primarily comprised of players developed within its own territory. Today, however, the pool of Mexican talent extends across a transnational landscape shaped by migration and family networks.

Ecuador’s trajectory may be surprising to some, but it’s really a natural extension of the growth of the domestic game, an increase of players playing their trade in Europe, and a youth system that continues to produce stars…

Beccacece, and Argentinian, became Ecuador’s head coach in August of 2024, replacing Félix Sánchez after losing to Argentina in Copa América quarter-final. At 44, he’s a fairly young manager, and has never been an international one. He has no history as a professional player either. In Ecuador, he took one one of the most coveted jobs in South American soccer, with a talented and hungry squad featuring Chelsea’s Moisés Caicedo and PSG center back Willian Pacho.

Yet despite this supposed mismatch, Beccacece has instilled defensive discipline into a team that are now masters of the counterattack thanks to an abundance of poise and pace. Under Beccacece, the low block is their friend, especially when protecting a lead and to them, defense – like the saying goes – really does win championships. Due to this philosophy, there are some corners of Ecuador’s media that criticize the lack of offensive creativity. Out of the South American teams who qualified for the World Cup, Ecuador were the joint lowest scorers alongside Paraguay. But to the team, their stingy defensive unit is a symbol of pride. .

As if there wasn’t enough information pointing towards a tactical 0-0 after 90 minutes, the last three matches between this pair have all ended in draws, two of them goalless.

“I have just one simple request,” teases Harry Sachar, “that both Mexico and Ecuador play better than France did earlier today. Surely that’s no too much to ask.”

The French demolition of Sweden was the statement performance of the World Cup so far. That front four is outrageous, a genuine joy to watch.

Form Guide:

• Mexico have won six in a row, broadened to nine out of 11 in 2026.

• That includes an incredible nine clean sheets.

• As previously discussed, El Tri are near unbeatable at home.
  

• Ecuador have only lost once since September 2024, their last gasp defeat to Ivory Coast in the group phase.

• Since then La Tri have conceded just eight goals in 22 matches.

• That run includes eight 0-0 draws.

“Without an official hydration break when does one refresh a Mexican Mule?” asks Lance Berc.

Well, after Nick reported the good news earlier that the hydration breaks have been ditched tonight, he has now followed up to suggest that may not be the case after all. I cannot wait for the sense of jeopardy as the 23 minute mark approaches.

Tonight’s referee is Slavko Vinčić. The Slovenian officiated the 2024 Uefa Champions League final and has already taken charge of Brazil v Morocco and Jordan v Algeria in this tournament.

Ok, now we know where we all stand, we can enjoy the latest from David Squires.

We have teams on the pitch! Goalkeepers for their warm-ups, anyway. Deafening boos for Ecuador’s crew, an absolute din for the Mexicans. If anything I think the conditions and resulting wait have dialled up the atmosphere here.

And something else to improve the mood: there will be no “hydration breaks” today.

Team News:

A reminder that after a little group stage tinkering Javier Aguirre has settled on his best XI, and it contains 17 year old Gilberto Mora.

Ecuador are unchanged from the side that beat Germany last time out. La Tri are now skippered by Moises Caicedo after Enner Valencia passed on the captain’s armband earlier this week.

Mexico (4-1-2-3): 1 Rangel; 2 Sanchez, 3 Montes, 5 Vasquez, 23 Gallardo; 6 Lira, 7 Romo, 19 Mora; 25 Alvarado, 9 Jimenez, 16 Quinones.

Ecuador (4-4-2): 1 Hernán Galíndez; 3 Piero Hincapié, 4 Joel Ordonez, 6 Willian Pacho, 21 Alan Franco; 15 Pedro Vite, 23 Moisés Caicedo; 20, Nilson Angulo, 9 John Yeboah; 13 Enner Valencia, 19 Gonzalo Plata

The sky has cleared considerably, the rain is easing off – if still coming down steadily – and we’re nearing football-ready conditions in my opinion. No sign of the players warming up though, so I can’t see this game starting for another hour or so now.

In the meantime a huge, sodden crowd are loading up on beers and being treated to a light show & DJ set. Despite the latter there is something epic about the vibe here, let’s see if we get a game to match.

Alan Steenstrup has notified me that: “Local media is currently saying the game will start at 20.00 local time, so one hour later than the original kickoff time.” I’ll bring you confirmation when it lands.

Paul in North Carolina has emailed in, perhaps under the misapprehension the Sash! banger “Ecuador” is a official propaganda, but he signs off with a lovely zinger. “So per that video, Ecuador is only about shouting gauchos, tinkly tones, and weird women? That video may be one of the most counter-productive ad campaigns since our local diner and gas station advertised “Eat Here, Get Gas”.

It’s that pesky curse again, isn’t it.

I can’t find any specific information yet on Mexico’s thunderstorm protocol, but the USA’s has been widely circulated following inclement weather earlier in the tournament.

In the US, a match must be immediately suspended if lightning is detected within an eight-mile radius. It cannot start, or resume, until 30-minutes after the last lightning strike.

Justin Meyer is having fun in spite of the weather, trading his allegiance from Bafana Bafana to El Tri. “As a South African in Mexico City currently braving the rain at the fan fest I was obviously disappointed to lose against Canada but honestly just qualifying for the second round for the first time felt like winning the World Cup! Mexico have been incredible hosts and tonight I will be cheering on the home side alongside what are some of the nicest, friendliest people in the world!”

Nick Ames is at the Azteca and will keep us updated on the weather. He’s hopeful the delay might only be half an hour or so.

Time for my final prematch coffee and kitchen rave.

According to my quick scan, Mexico haven’t lost at home since a 2018 friendly defeat to Chile. They haven’t lost a competitive fixture, or suffered defeat at the Azteca since 2013. Hashtag fortress.

As if today’s match-up wasn’t even enough, it’s also a referendum on the status of dark horses.

Mexico’s football culture dates back to the early 20th century, and the country has a place in history as participants in the first ever World Cup match, when they lost 4-1 to France on the opening day of the 1930 World Cup in Uruguay.

The following match against Chile they conceded the World Cup’s first own-goal.

Then against Argentina they scored the competition’s first ever penalty kick… but still lost 6-3.

Perhaps Mexico have always been destined to play World Cup fall guys?

Kiera Healy emails to inform me of some textbook major tournament fan behaviour: “Last night dozens of Mexican fans surrounded the Ecuador team’s hotel, singing, chanting, honking horns etc to keep them awake. There’s been a lot of talk about it in the Spanish-language news - the Ecuadorian team has now lodged an official complaint with FIFA about it. Shades of the 1995 Rugby World Cup final, for anyone with long memories.”

There is a third protagonist in this evening’s fixture, the incomparable Estadio Azteca.

The last time a World Cup knockout match took place here it ended with Diego Maradona lifting the trophy at the conclusion of a virtuoso individual tournament.

It was already a venue of renown thanks to Pele and his 1970 Brazilian teammates, and for its role in the inaugural (unofficial) women’s World Cup.

What about Ecuador? As Aaron Timms writes, they are dark horses predicated on strength, with an eye-catching coach.

On the field, through victory and defeat, Ecuador have been exactly what everyone imagined they would be before the tournament began: a team with an elite defensive and midfield spine that lacks any real punch up front. But on the sidelines and in the press conferences, they have absolutely dominated, and that’s all down to the gaucho Fabio they have leading their team. With his streaks of dirty blond hair, chinstrap of stubble, and Boeing 747 nose, Sebastián Beccacece looks like the kind of manager who should do well at the World Cup, regardless of results on the pitch. He’s 45 years old, leading a country other than his native Argentina, and arrives at this tournament boasting a fairly modest coaching record, having worked as an assistant under Jorge Sampaoli with Chile and managed the Spanish club side Elche to no great success.

More on the fascinating curse of the fifth game.

Mexico reached the quarterfinals on home soil in 1986, but they were banned from Italia 90 as a consequence of fielding over-age players at the 1988 CONCACAF U-20 Tournament, in what became known as the Cachirules scandal. Because four players were found to have falsified their ages, the fourth match is now cursed, meaning the fifth game never eventuates.

Following the scandal, El Tri were knocked out in the round of 16 (their fourth match) and every World Cup from 1994-2018 – seven tournaments in a row – before failing to exit the group phase in Qatar.

Raúl Vilchis sets the scene from a Mexican perspective, where the curse of the fifth game looms large over the hosts.

Mexico’s World Cup history has been marked by decades of defeats in the first-stage of the knockout rounds. Exactly the round Mexico will be playing in for their Tuesday matchup against Ecuador. And the country is on edge.

Since 1994, Mexico have made it to the knockouts – and then fallen at the first hurdle. The only exception was in Qatar when they didn’t even make it out of the groups. The last time Mexico made it to the now mythical “fifth game” was their quarter-final appearance in 1986, which was also the last time the World Cup was held on home soil.

A familiar anxiety that this fourth game will be Mexico’s last at this tournament is building across the nation.

Team news will drop in a few minutes and kick-off is still some time away, giving you plenty of opportunity to join in the conversation by emailing me at jonathan.howcroft.freelance@theguardian.com.

You could rhapsodise over France and celebrate Norway, the two nations through to the round of 16 already today, or ponder what went wrong for the Netherlands and fellow European powerhouses Germany yesterday.

In the meantime, tuck in to Max and Barry and the rest of the pod squad.