Most league pundits have had New South Wales twisting in the wind since their 44-24 capitulation in Melbourne. The Blues have won only three deciders contested at Suncorp Stadium in the last 32 years and have lost 15 of 20 Origin matches played there. Laurie Daley has been in position to wrap up a series nine times now – eight times he’s failed.

But this is Origin, where anything and everything can happen. Pilloried in the media, the Blues are battered but they aren’t broken, with fresh players bringing fresh hope. Queensland, unable to claim underdog status, have practised calm before the storm. In a city angry at their imploding Broncos, the stage is set for a Suncorp barnburner.

NSW only won game one after 20 minutes of magic from Nathan Cleary in Sydney. Somehow, after a frenzied opening quarter in which Queensland shot out to 20-0, the Blues half was able to staunch a gaping wound and energise a famous comeback.But 20 minutes of quality was nowhere near enough to jag game two in Melbourne.

Down 12-0 early, Queensland scored a miracle try before half-time to go to the break only 12-8 behind, the seeds of self-destructive doubt taking root in their enemies minds. Sure enough, the Blues bottled it, allowing the marauding Maroons to rattle off 36 second-half points, level the series and head home to Suncorp as heavy favourites.

The Maroons have outgunned the Blues in all the hotspots so far. Origin rookie Sam Walker has outfoxed four-time premiership winner Nathan Cleary in the halves while Kalyn Ponga has run circles around veteran James Tedesco from fullback. Where winger Selwyn Cobbo has gone to another level, Brian To’o has dropped his bundle. In the clinches, Blues hooker Reece Robson has barely laid a glove on Harry Grant.

It’s been a panicky three weeks for NSW since. Daley, who is a lovely man of deep loyalties, has been forced to swing the changes. Two under-performers are gone. Winger To’o, a Blues stalwart since 2021, has been axed along with misfiring centre Kotoni Staggs. In comes debutant Jack Bostock and Knights wrecking ball Bradman Best, both in hot form.

More vitally, Liam Martin returns from injury. In his 15 consecutive Origins until this year, the Panthers backrower has brought the white-line fever NSW badly need. He watched both 2026 games at home alone, pacing his lounge room and fuming. “There were a few expletives at the TV,” he said. “I’m very passionate about this jersey.”

NSW’s most successful Origin coach Phil Gould wants Martin “unleashed” to wreak early havoc, which Queensland coach, Billy Slater, has responded to by calling in Raiders firebrand Corey Horsburgh to collar him. Slater has also sprinkled magic dust on twin enforcers Jeremiah Nanai and Pat Carrigan who have staged Lazarus-like recoveries from injury to take the field on Wednesday.

Slater has that effect on his players. “Billy the Kid” has already won 11 series with Queensland: eight from 10 as a player and three from four as coach. And while NSW scramble to shore up Daley’s replacement next year before Ivan Cleary becomes available in 2028, Slater keeps “signing” his deals with a handshake.

It’s the coach’s way of telling his players: we’re playing for the jersey not the money – a currency of trust that has instilled supernatural belief into Maroons sides for years. NSW may routinely scoff at the mythic twaddle of “Queenslander spirit” but they fear it because history tells how often they succumb to the flow-state football it creates.

Look at the heathen chemistry new halves duo Cameron Munster and Walker have found so far. Munster has a feral strain of genius but his loose wires start fires. Playing inside so freewheeling a captain has let the bantamweight rookie Walker land repeat knockout blows on the Blues with inspired kick-pass-carry combinations.

Even so, NSW’s duo of Nathan Cleary and Ethan Strange stole a points decision in game one. Alas, Daley’s decision to sub in a half fit, zero-fear factor Mitch Moses was a bust, with a crocked Cleary missing a record 10 tackles and Moses MIA in attack. Strange was cleared of an ankle twinge on Monday and must play big minutes at Suncorp.

If Martin brings the mayhem, Cleary plays a blinder and Best finds room to gallop, NSW can give their longsuffering coach a sweet goodbye. But if Queensland pick up where they left off in Melbourne and snap NSW’s spirit with an early points blitz, the Suncorp earth might open up and swallow the men in Blue as it has so many others.