The bell has rung on final drinks at the last chance saloon and the Wallabies need to shout Joe Schmidt something powerful in this week’s must-win Test against Italy in Perth before their battle-weary boss exits as coach and staggers into retirement.
Last week against France, the champagne stayed on ice as Les Bleus roared back from 21-12 down at half-time to score 30 unanswered points and triumph 42-26. The week before, Ireland overturned a 24-19 deficit at the break to run away with the Nations Championship opener by 33-31.
This winless start to 2026 has driven woebegone Wallabies fans back to the drink. Australia have now lost six straight and tasted defeat in nine of their last 10 – their worst run since 2016.
Schmidt’s tenure as head coach started in 2024 with three straight victories at home. However, he has since won just eight of his 27 Tests in charge. And if his men fall to the Azzurri on Saturday – as they have in their last two clashes, in 2022 and 2025 – Schmidt’s win-loss record falls below 36% and leaves Australian rugby dealing with a terrible hangover.
It’s a real pickle for incoming coach Les Kiss to deal with 14 months out from a home World Cup. Schmidt’s contract extension into 2026 was supposed to deliver a seamless transition into the new era. Instead it risks delivering chaos and confusion for a shellshocked team who must now adapt to a new leader’s methods.
Unlike Schmidt, the 61-year-old Kiss won’t have the groundswell of home crowds and sold-out stadiums in his first jaunt as national coach either. Instead he must journey to Hokkaido for his first Test in charge and, after a return Test respite in Townsville, trek over to rugged Argentina for away Tests in San Salvador de Jujuy and Mendoza.
The Wallabies will face fierce opposition on both journeys. Japan are coached by Eddie Jones (whose 2023 record of 2-9 as Australia’s head coach is the only one worse than Schmidt’s since 1995) and he will have an ambush laid for his old side as he did for the Brave Blossoms’ 27-10 win over Italy in the Nations Championship opener.
Argentina now sit well ahead of Australia in the world rugby rankings on the back of back-to-back wins over Wales, a famous victory over Scotland at Murrayfield and narrow losses to England (23-27) and South Africa (27-29). The Wallabies split last year’s series (28-24 and 26-28) but Los Pumas have improved since. Have Australia?
This Saturday will give an answer and bring a final reckoning for the Schmidt era. Gonzalo Quesada’s side are also winless in the Nations Championship, having followed the loss in Tokyo with a 47-17 thumping by New Zealand last weekend. But Italy only trailed the All Blacks 14-10 at half-time. It sounds Schmidt’s men a warning.
The Azzurri are without a host of stars, with Giacomo Nicotera and Ange Capuozzo resting, Simone Ferrari and Sebastian Negri injured and Niccolò Cannone suspended. But Italy’s backline is elite, with flyhalf Paolo Garbisi, centres Tommaso Menoncello and Juan Ignacio Brex, and lost-Wallabies Louis Lynagh and Monty Ioane on the wings.
Australia have the firepower to match, and best, them. But the curse on their flyhalves has eroded Schmidt’s revolution at every turn, with nine No 10s used in 17 Tests. Carter Gordon was awesome against Ireland before a calf injury and Declan Meredith delivered a 21-12 lead on debut against France so earns another start against Italy.
The Wallabies have shown flashes of backline brilliance in 2026, as they did in a 5-15 season last year. But their Jekyll and Hyde performances are infuriating for fans and Schmidt’s injury-plagued run and inability to field a first XV who can match it with the world’s best sides for a full 80 minutes has exposed both their depth and leadership.
Australia fired off five scintillating tries against world No 3 Ireland yet lost the Test in the clutch moments, allowing a soft try on the stroke of half-time then muffing two penalty kicks in the final nine minutes. Against France, fullback Tom Wright’s sin-binning allowed Les Bleus to blaze three tries in just seven minutes. Game over.
Can the Wallabies recapture the form that shocked world champions South Africa 11 months ago? Schmidt has one last shot before the saloon shuts. “I want to leave the house in good order,” he vowed last week. “You don’t take on jobs like this to come second. I’m incredibly competitive. I just want these guys to get a little bit of reward.”
