Brisbane had a path laid out for them to book a home preliminary final on the way to a fourth straight grand final when they locked in third spot and set up a qualifying final against an embattled Sydney. But the two-time reigning premiers were blown off course as they were a step off the pace from the early exchanges then outworked by the inspired Swans in a humbling defeat.
The Lions walked the same tightrope 12 months ago when they were hammered by the Cats before bouncing back in a semi-final against the rising Suns. Coach Chris Fagan’s side went on to take the long road to success across four finals last year – just as they had done in 2024 – to win a second consecutive premiership. They will now need to do the same again to claim a three-peat.
Adelaide put their painful recent history behind them when they shook off a late Western Bulldogs rally to secure their first finals victory in nine years. After snapping their finals hoodoo and at the same time banishing the ghosts of last year’s straight-sets exit as minor premiers, the Crows can now play with the shackles released. The weight of expectation that comes with a home final has been thrown off as Matthew Nicks’ side hit the road to take on the back-to-back reigning premiers while hoping to have two games at the MCG – starting with Hawthorn next week – still to come.
Where the game will be won – and lost
History suggests that to write Brisbane off would be at your own peril. But something feels different this time. There were signs of decline against Sydney, or at least fatigue, from a battle-hardened side that has reached the past three deciders and is playing in an eighth-straight finals series. The Lions are leaking heavy scores, including nine triple-figure totals this season and more than 20 goals in three of the past 14 games. The 141 points conceded against the Swans was the most from the Lions in 21 finals under Fagan, though they can point to all 12 of the previous teams to lose a final by 50 points or more this century then bouncing back to win the next week.
The Lions’ woes this year have often started with defending their own turnovers and they are ranked in the bottom-four for points conceded from the source. With Lachie Neale – the No 1-ranked centre clearance player in the league – leading the onball brigade, they can usually rely on getting the ball going their way from the middle. But even the star-studded midfield misfired against the Swans as they were outscored 39-6 from centre ball-ups. Will Ashcroft, Hugh McCluggage and Neale were all well below their best and will be eager to respond.
Adelaide had to dig deep to clinch a breakthrough finals victory against the Bulldogs and continue what has turned into a promising campaign since their mid-season bye. The Crows have won 10 of 13 matches in the second half of the year including triumphs over top-six sides the Cats and Swans, while losing to the Dockers in their only other clash against one of the remaining teams. Nicks’ side found the genuine contenders harder to handle earlier as they lost games against the Cats, Dockers and Hawks, while copping their heaviest defeat of the year against the Lions.
The Crows have had recent troubles against the Lions with only two wins in 10 matches since 2018, and five losses from as many meetings at the Gabba in that time. But this is the first time the two teams have crossed paths in a final for 23 years, and Adelaide now have a defence made for finals as the second-best side for points conceded this year. Turning that reliable defence into regular attack remains a concern with the Crows ranked in the bottom-four for defensive-50 to inside-50 chains – just the weakness in the Lions’ game they should target after the Swans exploited it so well.
Game-changers
Lachie Neale: The dual Brownlow medallist put aside personal issues and speculation around his playing future to have another outstanding season – at least until he lowered his colours in Brisbane’s loss to Sydney. Neale was held to only 18 disposals and two clearances – his lowest tally at stoppages over the past year – in the qualifying final and will want to get his clean hands on the ball more to lead the Lions’ response. The former skipper need only look back to the last time the Lions played the Crows for a reminder of the influence he can have, when he ran riot and gathered 42 disposals in a resounding victory in round seven. Neale might be headed for the exit once the Lions’ campaign ends but if he can hit his usual heights over the next three weeks, success is likely to follow and ensure he earns a warm send-off.
Izak Rankine: The Adelaide dynamo has hit a rich vein of form as he continues to atone for using a homophobic slur towards an opponent and being banned for last year’s finals series. Rankine has averaged 36 disposals, 10 clearances and two goals across the past four matches while spending more time in the engine room, including in the first final of his career against Western Bulldogs. The 26-year-old was the difference as the Crows held off the Dogs’ final-term charge and capped the stirring victory with the sealer from the tightest of angles. Rankine remains one of the Crows’ main goal threats but as arguably the most in-form and impactful midfielder in the competition he can expect to have the Lions’ Josh Dunkley for company in their semi-final.
Early prediction
Brisbane made it difficult to trust them again after such a lacklustre qualifying final performance but have the runs on the board to suggest they will bounce back against an Adelaide side that has too often been exposed for being a rung below the genuine contenders this year.
