San Francisco 49ers (6-0)
Who would have thought the 49ers would be here after a rough old offseason? Head coach Kyle Shanahan’s participation in training camp was limited due to a serious car crash, team owner Jed York’s visit to an Ohio trailer park did not end well, and one player after another endured serious injuries. Despite all this, San Francisco are full of positive vibes. They are top of a tough division and their immense defense, led by the intensity of players such as safety Malik Mustapha and Fred Warner, is complemented by an equally impressive offense.
Brock Purdy’s record-setting quarterback rating has grabbed the headlines – and rightly so, as his laser accuracy on aggressive downfield throws sets the 49ers offense apart. But there are warnings Purdy’s offensive surge may not last. Pablo Torre pretty much debunked the 49ers’ electrical substation conspiracy theory, but injuries are piling up in the receiving corps. The team have four wide receivers on injured reserve, plus Brandon Aiyuk, who is in self-imposed exile. Purdy had found relief in the form of future Hall of Famer Mike Evans, but the 33-year-old left Monday’s win over the Washington Commanders with achilles pain and is also dealing with fractured ribs. And when Evans is off the field, Purdy struggles. On Monday, Evans caught three passes for 94 yards as the Niners appeared to be cruising at half-time. Without him, the offense went three and out three times, and only just hung on to beat the Commanders.
The three-game lead the 49ers have in the NFC West should see them walk into the playoffs. But if Purdy can’t find healthy, reliable targets, the Niners will see another promising campaign end against the big boys in the postseason.
Verdict: not quite the real thing
Kansas City Chiefs (5-0)
The Chiefs are back. After they limped to a 6-11 finish last season, their record is spotless, and the AFC West – thanks in part to the Los Angeles Chargers’ implosion – already looks sewn up. Patrick Mahomes is back from the ACL tear he suffered in 2025, and the offense is no longer solely relying on the quarterback to paper over the cracks: the acquisition of running back Kenneth Walker III looks to be the move of the offseason. It was likely that last season’s Super Bowl MVP would be a solid get for a Chiefs rushing attack that averaged a sluggish 4.2 yards per carry last season. But Walker’s production has made the Seattle Seahawks look a little foolish to let him go.
Kansas City picked him up for $14.35m a year, making him only the ninth-most expensive running back in the league. Did the Chiefs think Walker would be the NFL’s leading rusher coming into Week 7? Unlikely, especially as the Chiefs have already had their bye week. His 665 rushing yards still top the charts, as do the team’s 5.5 yards per carry. Walker’s penchant for explosive big plays has been the biggest transformation for Kansas City. He already has seven carries of more than 20 yards. The Chiefs managed just three all of last year.
The knock on Kansas City is that Walker’s rampage has come amid a soft schedule to start the season. But if he overpowers his former employers – and their formidable defense – on Sunday night the rest of the league should be very worried.
Verdict: the real thing
Minnesota Vikings (5-0)
The Vikings have an important talent when it comes to going the distance: the ability to win ugly. The Seahawks pulled off the same trick last season on the way to winning the Super Bowl. Now Minnesota are doing the same thing with a similarly dominant defense leading the charge. How important is the defense to the Vikings? They are the first team to go 4-0 while not scoring an offensive touchdown in multiple games (wins over Miami and Chicago) since the Detroit Lions in 1934.
Perhaps more importantly for the Vikings’ championship hopes: their offense has shown signs of waking up. In their last game, a 23-13 victory over the Saints before the bye week, Kyler Murray had his best day in purple and gold. He looked reliable as the team’s starting quarterback, with an 80% completion rate, 229 passing yards and a highlight-reel touchdown throw that Justin Jefferson caught in triple coverage. As is the case with Evans and the 49ers, Jefferson unlocks a much higher level of production from Murray. The difference for the Vikings is their defense is a cut above the 49ers’ unit. They aren’t one of the best defenses – they are the best. Brian Flores’s blitz-heavy package led by Dallas Turner on the edge and linebacker Blake Cashman has conceded just five touchdowns so far.
Verdict: the real thing
Buffalo Bills (5-1)
OK, the Bills have lost a game, but we’re throwing them in here as they’ve been the best of the rest. You have to admire Josh Allen’s fondness for high drama – and his defense-shredding talent even more. Buffalo lead the league in scoring with four of their five wins coming in box-office shootouts. It’s never dull on the other side of the ball either: Buffalo’s defense has allowed the most yards per game (386.8) of anyone in the league, bar the leaky Lions.
The question is whether having such an abject defense is sustainable for the rest of the season. One key metric – stopping teams on third down – suggests they are in for a rough ride against elite opposition in the playoffs. What’s worse is that they started the season poorly in that category and have gotten progressively worse. The NFL average for stops on third down is about 40%. In Week 2, the Lions were successful on third down 36% of the time against the Bills. Last Sunday the Raiders had 58% success in the same scenario. With Allen at the controls, the Bills will always have a shot; it’s just a shame he can’t play both ways. Buffalo need to function at a higher level on defense in fundamental areas to win it all.
Verdict: not the real thing
Bonus category: the No 1 pick will go to …
The Jets have a few shots at “glory”. Their three first-round picks are owned by 2-4 teams: the Colts, Cowboys and the Jets themselves. However, that trio are part of a bunch of franchises with two wins. Many would have been surprised to see the Philadelphia Eagles among those nine teams, but they could sink further. The ongoing saga over Jalen Hurts’s blood clots means the untested Tanner McKee is now the team’s starting quarterback and the Eagles are dealing with a huge injury list. It’s not impossible to imagine they could be in play for the No 1 pick by the end of the season.
However, much more likely to be picking first in 2027 are the winless Chargers and Dolphins. Miami are the solid choice to pick first. Their offense has been abysmal, except for one quarter of fluency under zero pressure from the Cincinnati Bengals. Sunday’s matchup will probably highlight the huge gulf in class between the merely bad Jets and the pit of despair that is the Dolphins.
