Can England retain the rugby World Cup?

England's current No8 Pat Sanderson says England can triumph in France next year - but former prop Jeff Probyn disagrees.
  
  


Yes, says England's No8 and captain on their summer tour of Australia, Pat Sanderson

I genuinely believe England can win the World Cup next year and I'm not just saying that for the sake of it. Yes, our results last season were disappointing, but you only have to compare the Australian side we played last autumn with the team which gave the All Blacks a hard time in Auckland in August to realise how transient rugby fortunes can be. Suddenly John Connolly's Wallabies are very competitive and came close to beating the best team in the world. Yet in June they had lost nine Tests in a row. That shows how quickly things can turn around.

I have absolutely no doubt that we possess the playing and coaching talent in this country to do likewise and there is still time for it to happen. On the summer tour of Australia it was difficult: the attack coach Brian Ashton joined us very late and, from a defensive aspect, Mike Ford had an awful lot to do. But we still have enough time: there are 14 Tests before the World Cup kicks off in France next September and the right coaching structure is now in place.

Our game will undoubtedly improve under Brian, who is just about the best attacking coach in the sport. His ideas are superb, the players buy into them and they all respect him immensely. From what I've seen, Mike also knows his stuff and our defence will get stronger the longer we are together. Consistency in selection will be important but if we do everything right, I've no doubt we can win the World Cup.

This season, admittedly, is crucial - at club level as well as internationally. As players we need to set short-term goals and securing good results at club level can be a launch pad for Test success. There is no shortage of competition for places, that's for sure.

The majority of English players have had a longer break over the summer than in previous years and have had a chance to recharge their batteries. Looking around the country there are an awful lot of good players and several promising youngsters. It's not a fantasy to suggest we can have a good autumn; do well in the Six Nations and force the rest of the world to reassess us. We still have enough time to get it right in France next year.

But starting with New Zealand on Sunday, now is the time for England to start putting in some big performances. Winning Test matches breeds confidence, and confidence plays a huge part in sport, as does making the right selections.

Injuries, too, can always have an impact, as we've discovered since the World Cup in Australia in 2003. But what if our long injury list suddenly starts to look healthier? What if Jonny Wilkinson, for example, hits the sort of form for the Six Nations he has shown in the past? He's a talented individual, world class in every respect, and very important to any side, let alone a squad. People have short memories if they forget his potential impact in an England shirt.

A fit, in-form Jonny would be a big advantage - and then again we have another fantastic, world-class fly-half in the shape of Charlie Hodgson, who would walk into most international sides. Whether they could both play in the same team I don't know but it underlines the talent out there. It's just a question of getting the best out of everybody, and I think that will happen with the structure we have got now.

No, says Former England prop and 1991 World Cup finalist Jeff Probyn

The fact is, winning the 2003 World Cup has made success next year more difficult, and less likely, for England. We have some good players but with little over 10 months to go until the opening game, Andy Robinson and his coaching team have worryingly little time to pull together a side capable of winning again.

Sides tend to perform in eight-year cycles, covering two World Cups: the core of England's 2003 team failed in 1999 just as the nucleus of the side I played in that reached the 1991 final had failed in 1987. And the 1991 champions, Australia, won again in 1999.

Next year's World Cup was actually the one England were supposed to win under the RFU's first strategic plan, which Clive Woodward helped draw up in 2000 after losing in the quarter-finals the previous year. Woodward thought the players he had for 2003 weren't good enough and would need more time to reach the required level, but then Martin Johnson inspired his team to victory. When he left it was a huge loss.

Johnson was the only player who retired immediately after the final, but then there were a few injuries, a couple of players were dropped, the third game of the Six Nations was lost at home to Ireland and things deteriorated fast. Robinson was left with a hotchpotch to deal with when he took over - and while Andy is a very good coach, he is not a good selector.

I think that has been shown by some of the selections made during his time in charge: the way Mathew Tait was picked and then discarded, for example, or when the coaches took their eyes off 2007 by bringing back Matt Dawson and Lawrence Dallaglio. It undermined the effort to build a new team. So, too, Andy Farrell's fast-tracking into the England squad - that was an injustice to players coming through the academy system and sent out the wrong message. He is not ready to play for England now and still won't be come the World Cup.

Now Rob Andrew has been appointed as elite rugby director with a brief to win the title in 2011, which says something about the RFU's expectations this time around. That said, they have also put down a marker about who has the final say on selection - Robinson.

Selection is not about the 15 best individuals but about those who complement each other, and I don't think England have been getting that right. The autumn internationals are a chance to make amends, and the key games will be the two meetings with South Africa, who England will face in the pool stages in France next year. Win them both and it will offer a psychological advantage, even if the South Africa side is weakened, but lose them and it will cause serious problems. Not that Robinson can look beyond Sunday's game against New Zealand just now: England really can't afford to kick off with a heavy defeat to the All Blacks.

In the end, there are six teams who could win the World Cup, and four who probably think they should. Even if I don't expect England to win it, they are still in there with New Zealand, Australia and France as the teams who should be thinking about the semi-finals. If England beat South Africa in the pool then they will have a quarter-final with Wales, a team they should beat. However, if rugby's World Cup was as competitive as it is in football, we would struggle to get out of the pool.

 

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