Handicap betting is on the rise in rugby, and it is easy to see why. The handicap requires the bookie to be more precise and more candid about the deal he is offering. Anyone can pick a number between 50 to 1,000 for the odds of, say, Portugal beating New Zealand, safe in the knowledge it isn't going to happen, and you can be sure the odds are well short of the real chances of it taking place. But with a handicap bet, a bookie has to come up with a precise figure for the winning margin and then offer odds not far off evens if it is meant to be a 50-50 shot. The further away from evens the odds get, the more the bookie is diddling us. 10-11 are typical odds for a handicap bet, and anything shorter than 5-6 should not be taken on for a 50-50 shot.
Ireland +14.5 v France (bet1128)
At last the Irish have a game in which no one gives them a prayer - just how they like it. A quick look at their team on paper makes a mockery both of their recent form and of the idea that they are anyone's fools. France's team on paper, however, has holes in it, however well they played against Namibia. They are missing reference points such as Pelous and Jauzion. Their back row is a bit samey - good spoilers all of them. Their main ball-carrier is Chabal, cooped up in the second row, which he can't enjoy. Michalak remains fair-weather at fly-half, as does Poitrenaud at full-back. Ireland are more than capable of scoring, which is an important consideration for the handicap better. Reddan and Flannery at scrum-half and hooker are improvements. There is a concern that this is not quite do-or-die for Ireland, whereas it is for France - but then that sort of pressure can do funny things to the French.
Tonga +46 v South Africa (Sky, Ladbrokes)
It's very difficult for a side to click immediately into free-flowing excellence, and most of South Africa's selection have yet to play in this World Cup. The camp must feel their job is done for the time being, with wins collected against Samoa and England. Tonga, interestingly, despite having had two games in the space of five days - the second a hugely emotional win over their island rivals, Samoa - and with a suddenly important game against England to come, field a largely full-strength side. They will be vulnerable after that win over Samoa, but this Springbok outfit should take a while to find their feet. A similar selection scraped home 18-3 against Connacht recently, a scoreline that flattered them.
England -14 v Samoa (sporting bet)
Samoa will be wildly pumped up for this one after their defeat to Tonga, which may leave them vulnerable. There won't be anything complicated to their play - their midfield selection has GBH written all over it, with a fly-half in Eliotu Fuimaono Sapolu who is normally a centre so uncomplicated he wears a scrum cap. England have, by accident almost, stumbled across their most creative and pacy midfield, who have the wares to unpick any hot-headedness in the opposition. Up front the collisions will be enormous, but Samoa's biggest personalities in the pack (Tuilagi, Johnston, Leo) are the kind that cause havoc for 50 minutes in the Premiership then get subbed off. Against the more slow-burning England pack they may get frustrated/mauled into submission. And England go from having no goal-kickers to two of them. All they need now is to win a few shots at goal. The impatient opposition and equally impatient referee, Alan Lewis, are likely to oblige.
Argentina -50 v Namibia (Ladbrokes, Paddy Power, Expekt)
Namibia put out their second team for this one with eyes more keenly trained on the midweek tussle with Georgia - an opportunity to win their first World Cup game. Their skipper Kees Lensing, one of the few professionals in the squad, is on the bench nursing a toe injury. Argentina's injury problems at fly-half seem to be clearing up, meanwhile, with Felipe Contepomi reunited with Pichot at half-back. Gonzalo Longo also works his way back from injury off the bench. There is a concern that Argentina may also be distracted by a more important game on the horizon - next weekend's clash with Ireland - but the minnows may now start to tire in this tournament, and Argentina have the firepower here to take advantage.
