It has started like all other World Cups. The All Blacks get off to a flying start, prompting the usual outbursts of despair from everybody else. Except of course the Australians and the South Africans. Both of these think they know better. They have, after all, been in the same position before in the early rounds of the tournament and have not panicked in the face of a seemingly irresistible black tide.
They are convinced that the All Blacks are the same mentally fragile lot that they have overcome in the past when the blowtorch of finals rugby is applied and a game is won or lost through defensive resilience rather than attacking ebullience. The coaches, the players and the national pundits in Australia in particular have taken to chanting a familiar mantra - that the All Blacks are World Cup chokers. Now if there is one insult which really cuts home, it is that: because that's exactly what they have been in the recent past. The memories of 1995, 1999 and 2003 are scorched into the minds of New Zealanders and the scars have never healed.
Yet this time it may be different. This time there are three factors at play that suggest that the All Blacks will indeed prevail. The first of these is the quality of leadership which is palpably better than it has been for a couple of decades. Richie McCaw may be the frontman on the field but he is only part of the leadership machine. Others, notably Rodney So'oialo, Anton Oliver, Aaron Mauger, Byron Kelleher, Carl Hayman, Doug Howlett and Chris Jack, form part of a broader leadership front. All of these are seasoned, hard-minded internationals accustomed to taking decisions and motivating others. Most are not natural leaders. They have learned the art and been encouraged to be more dominant personalities by Graham Henry. How different this is to the timorous, reticent collection of individuals who have wilted against France, Australia and South Africa.
The second factor is a remarkable improvement in the ability of the All Blacks to focus from start to finish in every game. In the past, concentration has been a major shortcoming. Not any more. Anyone who watched the opening match against Italy will have realised that this isn't a team that goes off-message, even when the lead is 50+ points. This All Black team takes particular pride in staying the course mentally. Here too, they are radically different to the sides of 1999 and 2003.
But the most important factor that gives New Zealand cause to believe that this time they really will prevail is the team's tactical acumen. All out attack is now moderated by an ability to grind a game out, as witnessed several times in the last year or two in the Tri-Nations. When the going gets tough, the All Blacks revert to what they do best: going up the middle of the field with players off-loading in the tackle via short, flipped passes. The secret to this is, of course, making a half-break and freeing up the ball for those backing up, and fine judgement as to whether to unload. It is a technique that this All Black team has near perfected and it has the physical resources to carry it through.
For the All Blacks of 2007 natural talent - of which they have more than any other team in the tournament - is just one of the components. This time all that speed, stepping ability and athleticism is backed by massive brute strength, tactical creativity and a fierce will.
Can anybody else match that particular panoply? New Zealanders, who have been disappointed too many times before, are hedging their bets but they know that if the All Blacks can't win this time, they never will.
