Wallabies searching for identity one year out from World Cup
The Wallabies are proving more elusive than the dingo who took the baby. Where are they? Or, perhaps more pertinently, who are they? The team that has stumbled its way through the Rugby Championship thus far - including a controversial one-point win against South Africa last week - isn’t the entertaining and free-running one supporters had been promised, nor does it look in any way an outfit good enough to get past next year’s Rugby World Cup group of death (Pool A) in which one of either England, Wales, or Australia won’t progress to the quarter-finals (working on the not unreasonable assumption that Fiji won’t make the quarters, notwithstanding an IRB leg-up relaxing eligibility rules to allow players to switch allegiances; see more on this hot potato below).
It’s a conundrum for the Australian coach Ewen McKenzie, who has 12 Tests and bang on 12 months after this weekend’s Rugby Championship clash against Argentina to bring out the latent collective talent from the group of quality players at his disposal (a virtual cavalry, including the hugely influential Stephen Moore, is out injured) and to build a playing style capable of surviving what is undoubtedly the most treacherous of the four World Cup pools. That assignment includes playing England and Wales, both at Twickenham, seven days apart. The Springboks, in comparison, need only see off Samoa (although they could surprise thanks to the new IRB rules), Scotland (who could be the real losers if a beefed-up Samoa progress), Japan and the USA. The All Blacks, meanwhile, will use Argentina, Tonga, Georgia and Namibia as practice fodder for a likely quarter-final against Ireland or France.
The rewards for topping Pool A are substantial for the Wallabies. Foremost of which is they go on the other side of the draw to the All Blacks. Then, barring massive upsets, the Wallabies would face either Samoa or Scotland in the quarter-finals; France, Ireland, Argentina or Tonga in the semis; and, on current form, the All Blacks in the final. Finish second in Pool A, however, and the Wallabies will in all likelihood face South Africa in the quarter-finals for a likely semi-final against the All Blacks. Therein lies the challenge for McKenzie: getting his side to ignite from scratch at RWC2015 and knock off two world class northern hemisphere teams on successive weekends or, failing that, prepare for the far more arduous route to the final via the Boks and then the All Blacks.
In that context, and now that the Bledisloe Cup is lost for another year and the Rugby Championship trophy the All Blacks’ to lose, the Wallabies ought to shift their focus exclusively to preparations for 2015. That means giving playing time to every player and combination permutation McKenzie intends to select for what will in effect be a shadow World Cup squad for the end of year UK spring tour. It could mean losses against the underrated Pumas on the Gold Coast on Saturday and in Mendoza on 5 October, and away to the Springboks in Newlands on 28 September. McKenzie may need to recalibrate his message to supporters: winning every Test remains the first objective, but the rest of the Rugby Championship will be used to select the bulk of his 31-man 2015 RWC squad with a view to settling on a match-day 23 for the spring tour, which, for RWC preparation purposes, is a full dress rehearsal with back-to-back matches against Wales, France, Ireland, and England during November.
McKenzie has retained key combinations from last week - Bernard Foley/Nick Phipps (halves); Tevita Kuridrani/Matt Toomua (centres); Sam Carter/Rob Simmons (locks); Sekope Kepu/James Slipper (props); and Michael Hooper/Scott Fardy (blindside/openside) - and replaced only for injury, including Peter Betham for Adam Ashley-Cooper on the wing and Ben McCalman, who needs more Test playing minutes, for Wycliff Palu as eighth man. There’s a strong argument for Kurtley Beale at 12 after his match-winning, seven-minute cameo off the bench against the Springboks. McKenzie may have been swayed against that though by Ashley-Cooper’s absence, in that keeping the established centre pairing of Kuridrani/Toomua intact would be better than an untried Beale/Kuridrani partnership, especially with a relatively inexperienced Betham outside.
Speight the missing piece to backline puzzle
So are we getting any closer to a settled Wallabies line-up to get through next year’s World Cup pool of death? With Foley, Phipps, Hooper, Fardy, Polota-Nau and Israel Folau it’s a yes, but a live debate everywhere else. The key to the backline puzzle, at least, is a player who hasn’t even played for the Wallabies yet - Fiji-born Henry Speight. He’s finally eligible but is still recovering from a hamstring injury. Fully fit, he’s a certainty for one of the wing spots, which would place McKenzie in a tricky situation of what to do with Ashley-Cooper. Drop him or Rob Horne? Or play Ashley-Cooper in his best position, centre, which then lends itself to a midfield partnership with Beale at 12, and Kuridrani and Toomua on the bench. Many critics of this so-called Tahs-centric Wallabies backline of Phipps, Foley, Beale, Ashley-Cooper and Folau argue success at Super Rugby level doesn’t always translate to Test rugby. They are absolutely right, it doesn’t. But Phipps, Foley, Beale, Ashley-Cooper and Folau are all internationals, with three, arguably four, if not all of them, walk-ins for the Test matchday team. Why wouldn’t their title-winning Super combinations work at international level? It certainly worked in the last 10 minutes against the Springboks.
Another All Blacks v Springboks classic?
The All Blacks will all but secure the Rugby Championship trophy should they beat the Springboks in Wellington on Saturday. New Zealand at home are unbackable favourites but the Boks tend to save their best for the Kiwis. If the Test even gets half-way to matching last year’s Ellis Park thriller, we could be in for a special treat. Congratulations to Bok captain Jean de Villiers who will be playing his 100th Test.
Props need not apply
In a stunning backhand to rugby’s chunkier players, IRB boss Brett Gosper has warned the governing body will block “huge” props seeking to qualify for Pacific island and other nations at the World Cup via a loophole allowing players to switch allegiances to another country to play sevens at the 2016 Rio Olympics provided they have not played for their initial country for 18 months, and hold a passport for the country they intend to play for. This means players satisfying the criteria could switch allegiances in time to play in the 2015 World Cup. Well maybe not, according to Gosper who has set up a committee to vet applications. “There is a regulations committee that will look at all applications for transfer and they will look to see if it’s for bona fide sevens reasons,” Gosper said. “For example, if we have huge props applying for a career in sevens, then we’ll smell a rat.” It’ll be interesting to see how a prop’s rejected application holds up as a restraint of trade case. Who’s to say a prop, say someone like Ben Tameifuna, couldn’t drop weight and give sevens a genuine crack with Tonga?
Scotland facing tough task against beefed-up Samoans
Scotland, meanwhile, should be genuinely concerned about the rule change with Samoa drawn in the same pool at the World Cup. With the Springboks expected to top the pool, the second quarter-final qualifying position will probably come down to Scotland and Samoa barring an unlikely run by Japan and the USA. It’s looking very likely the Scots will face a Samoan side augmented by former All Blacks including Casey Laulala, Chris Masoe, Lelia Masaga, Mose Tuiali’i, Isaia Toeva, and maybe even All Black centurion Mils Muliaina. Tonga, meanwhile, could field former All Blacks Anthony Tuitavake and Sam Tuitupou alongside former Wallabies Mark Gerard, Daniel Halangahu, Sitaleki Timani and George Smith. Fiji, meanwhile, could potentially reach out to former All Blacks Sitiveni Sivivatu and Joe Rokocoko. And in the UK, there are unconfirmed reports former England backrower Steffon Armitage could switch allegiance to France. Expect the eligibility debate to catch fire.
