A wide draw in the Cesarewitch is a serious matter and there have been years when I’ve given up on a horse I’d otherwise have backed just because of its stall position. But I shall keep faith with Swnymor (3.50), despite his draw in 34, and trust Phillip Makin to make the best of a difficult situation.
I’ve been keeping an eye on this beast since he fell at the last at Chepstow when about to win a Grade One hurdle at the start of last year. That has been the high point of his hurdling career so far but there might be better days for him on the Flat.
John Quinn, who got him from Rebecca Curtis in May, seems to think so, having got him to win almost immediately at Chester and very easily too. The gelding then went over for the Galway festival in July and finished strongly into fifth in the race won by Quick Jack, the Cesarewitch favourite.
He had too much ground to make up that day but passed nine horses in the final furlong. This stiffer test should help and the fact that he’s a hold-up horse let’s me hope that having to drop in from a wide stall need not be a disaster.
I think Swnymor’s credentials are strong and I expected him to be backed at the overnight stage but, following the draw, he is 16-1, having been 14s on Wednesday. It’s a fair price.
Nicky Henderson’s Earth Amber looks the right sort for this race, while Saddler’s Rock is a fascinating contender, making his handicap debut on his first start for Jonjo O’Neill. Both have also received wide draws, so perhaps the each-way value is Jonny Delta, a never-nearer seventh last year after trouble in running and 1lb lower from a better draw in 16 this time. He’s available at 40-1 as I type.
1.50 York Clive Cox continues to train plenty of winners and his Lacan can be forgiven his beaten effort in the Silver Cambridgeshire, the first handicap he had contested and his first outing for more than three months. This is less competitive and soft ground may also help.
2.05 Newmarket I’m not quite convinced of the worth of the Solario form, Future Empire having narrowly failed to snatch that Group Three prize in late August, in a four-way drive for the line. But it was only his second start and the way he ran suggested to me that this stiffer test should help, so he appeals most.
2.20 York Also from the Saeed bin Suroor yard, First Flight ran well to be second in a valuable Newbury handicap last month behind Air Pilot, who turned out to be a major blot on the handicap. First Flight has more to give and I can’t see an Air Pilot among his rivals.
2.40 Newmarket I can understand why others are fancied but Placidia is a good price at 25-1 for this Listed prize. She has been gradually progressive but seemed to respond well to a jockey change last time, when travelling strongly under George Baker in a Yarmouth handicap, and Frankie Dettori is a positive booking this time. Placidia’s breeding suggests she has lots of scope to be better than she has so far shown and I shall give her a chance. Her trainer, David Lanigan, is under-rated.
2.55 York Having been well held in a couple of hot races this summer, Bond’s Girl stayed on stoutly to land the valuable sales race at the St Leger meeting last month. Softer ground looks like good news for Richard Fahey’s filly, who is the standout candidate on form.
3.10 Newmarket The safe option is Battersea, whose only defeat in three handicaps was by a neck to Maid In Rio at a time when she was very hot indeed. Battersea has won two valuable contests over this trip at Ascot since then and looks on the way to becoming a Group horse like his half-brother Gitano Hernando. An extra 10lb is no nightmare and the forecast suggests the ground should not become so soft as to pose a problem.
3.30 York A winner over this course and distance at the Dante meeting, Aetna looked unlucky on her first start since, when a close third at Newmarket two weeks ago.
