Every Six Nations season has a defining weekend and for England and Ireland it has arrived. Wales or France can still win the title but the championship’s two unbeaten heavyweights are about to collide in a frenzied blur of green and white in Dublin on Sunday. If England can defeat Ireland for a fifth successive time they will be two Twickenham wins away from a first grand slam for 12 years.
While a clean sweep is not compulsory – both teams could yet be champions even if they lose – a slam offers the extra dollop of validation England still crave. Defeat by a side they might meet in a World Cup semi-final and there will be renewed introspection. Win well and they will be firmly established as the northern hemisphere’s best hope of bruising the pride of the south.
Whether Six Nations success is enough to terrify the rest of planet rugby is a matter of debate but Stuart Lancaster freely acknowledges it is another decisive moment in his team’s evolution. “It felt that way last year when we beat them at home,” he said. “You don’t beat Australia and South Africa in November without being a top side, so it would be a significant victory for us. It will be as difficult a game as we’ve had in a long time.”
Yet England, too, are growing stronger and belief is flowering along with the head coach’s options. It has reached the stage where only players in seriously good form can expect to make the match-day 23, let alone the starting XV. Courtney Lawes will presumably return but, all of a sudden, even Manu Tuilagi, Joe Launchbury, Tom Wood, Geoff Parling and Owen Farrell cannot be certain of places in Lancaster’s best team once they have regained full match fitness.
That has to be good for English World Cup prospects, regardless of whether Lancaster has been lucky selectorially or not. There can be no doubt that George Ford, Jonathan Joseph, Dave Attwood and James Haskell have added fresh zest and energy; no one will know what would have unfolded had they continued on the bench. Then again the strength of the collective has always been Lancaster’s watchword. Do not bet against Alex Goode and Jack Nowell taking similar advantage of Mike Brown’s concussion and Jonny May’s meandering recent form.
Lancaster can also argue he was due a little good fortune. Think back to New Zealand last summer when consistent selection was impossible for assorted reasons. How interesting that only three starting members of the team for the second Test in Dunedin last June remain. By accident or design the house of Lancaster is in better shape than at any stage since 2012.
Which, as everyone knows, is precisely the kind of potentially complacent mental state that Joe Schmidt loves to exploit. It may be a cliche to say Schmidt’s sides are smart cookies but it is absolutely the truth. Jonny Sexton and Conor Murray are two of the world’s best tactical half-backs and nine victories on the bounce indicates a team who know how to win even on their off-days.
Ireland will be wondering, even so, how they can pierce the white screen ahead of them. They have managed one try, by Rob Kearney, in their past three Six Nations games against England, not the greatest of omens. Kicking the ball high and often is a valid tactic on a potentially windy afternoon but those waiting for it are unfazed. “We know that’s going to be coming but we’ve been dealing with that in the Premiership week-in week-out,” said Nowell, who will start on the wing at the Aviva Stadium. “We’re looking forward to it.”
Gone, in other words, are the days when an England debutant, the wonderfully entertaining Bath wing David Trick, stood beneath a swirling garryowen at the old Lansdowne Road awaiting his first touch in Test rugby, only for the ball to miss his hands completely, hit the turf and ricochet straight into his privates. Lancaster is also expecting a serious aerial bombardment – “I think all our back three will be targets because it’s still a young backline” – but rejects any notion of his players being intimidated by Ireland’s eight starting Lions.
Neither will Ireland’s quest for a 10th consecutive win, nor Paul O’Connell’s 99th cap for Ireland, be greatly discussed as kick-off approaches. “Those records don’t count for anything when Sunday comes around,” Lancaster said. “The margins between the teams will be very small and the outcome will be decided on key moments. It could be discipline, a defensive error or a moment of brilliance but it will be tight. That’s why it is such a fascinating game.”
It will be tougher still for the hosts if England tighten up the areas where they are occasionally under par – the opening 10 minutes of games, defensive restarts, their positioning out wide – and display half the assurance they exhibited in Dublin back in 2003 when Martin Johnson’s side delivered a 42-6 masterclass that clinched the grand slam.
Chris Robshaw’s modern equivalents are not yet that strong but the England pack, particularly with Jamie Heaslip missing for Ireland, are savvy enough not to get dragged into a choke-tackling, upright maul-fest.
Ford, as he will hope to prove for Bath in this same city against Leinster in the last eight of the European Cup in April, is a fine tactical kicker too, unless the bullocking Sean O’Brien gets to him first.
It promises to be as tense as any game in the tournament, Wales versus England in Cardiff included. England have taken time to settle against Wales and Italy but cannot afford to go 10-0 down at the Aviva Stadium. Get ahead, conversely, and they have the bench to squeeze the Irish forwards, particularly in the scrums.
It will then fall to Ford – or Danny Cipriani – to kick his goals as nervelessly as Owen Farrell did two years ago. If Schmidt’s canny champions can be outfoxed, English fans will surely conclude this is going to be their year.
