From the contenders to the pretenders, the NRL’s top eight will take the field this week in the first round of the finals. Minor premiers Penrith are deserved favourites, and are looking to win their third consecutive title. If they take out the trophy on grand final day on 1 October it would be the first time since Peter Sterling’s Parramatta side in 1983 that a club has won three titles in a row. But before the premiership is decided, there’s still four weeks of finals football to be played, starting on Friday.
Brisbane v Melbourne
Though they may have squandered the minor premiership last week, the Broncos are back among the NRL’s elite. The economic powerhouse of the competition have not won a premiership since 2006, but they will go into the finals as one of the competition’s most fearsome sides.
Coach Kevin Walters has developed a team that is devastating in attack and resolute in defence. Over the season, only the Panthers have a better attack, and in defence again only Penrith are more miserly. With 188 metres, prop Payne Haas has accrued 10 more run metres per match than the next best forward, the Warriors’ Addin Fonua-Blake. And blink-and-you’ll-miss-him fullback Reece Walsh is a searing attacking threat.
But there are quirks to their success. A middling seven-from-five win rate at Suncorp Stadium is not even the best ratio in Queensland (the Cowboys won eight). In contrast, on the road the Broncos have won 11 from 12. And while Walsh is a potent force when things go well, he has made 44 handling errors this season – 11 more than the next highest tally.
Much of the league might fear Haas and his brilliant teammates, but Melbourne certainly do not. The Storm have won 14 games in a row against the Broncos, most recently just last week. Few would argue against scratching that match from the records given both teams rested more than half their starting sides. But the Storm also triumphed in round 11 in Melbourne, handing Brisbane their season’s only away loss, 24-16.
Broncos v Storm, Suncorp Stadium, Friday 7:50pm
Penrith v New Zealand Warriors
Whatever happens this September, the era of Panthers dominance has been spectacular. Two premierships in three years. Two minor premierships. Three grand finals. And all while losing key players each year, such as Matt Burton, Viliame Kikau, Api Koroisau and Kurt Capewell. It helps having Nathan Cleary in the No 7 jersey, but the development of players like Dylan Edwards, Stephen Crichton and Isaah Yeo from good first-graders to elite performers, and the extraordinary Panthers pipeline, has helped mitigate their losses.
The shoulder injury to five-eighth Jarome Luai two weeks ago threatens to upset their imperious run. Luai is a brilliant bull runner and playmaker, and his competitive edge complements Cleary’s metronomic game. It’s not clear when – or if – he will be back.
The Warriors – under new coach Andrew Webster – provide a fitting first-up finals test for the premiership favourites. Webster coached under Ivan Cleary at Penrith for two seasons. He has helped turn around a club that found itself homeless for much of the pandemic, but can now look forward to a home final – win or lose on Saturday.
The return to form of veteran halfback Shaun Johnson – one of the favourites for the Dally M – gives the Warriors’ attack cunning and class. No player has more try assists this year than the Warriors’ No 7. And prop Fonua-Blake is second only to Payne Haas as a metre-eating middle.
Before this season, the Warriors have only finished in the top four twice in two decades. Whether they belong there is still up for debate: they are yet to beat one of the other top four sides in 2023.
Panthers v Warriors, Penrith Stadium, Saturday 4:05pm
Cronulla v Sydney Roosters
Sydney’s standout NRL attraction in week one of the finals will be crammed into the 13,000-capacity PointsBet Stadium, as Accor, Allianz and CommBank stadiums have some 150,000 seats that will go unused.
Sharks backrower Briton Nikora has emerged as one of the game’s best backrowers, and an elite edge runner. Only outside backs have accumulated more than the 25-year-old’s 18 linebreaks this season.
Nicho Hynes has recovered from his mid-season slump to regain his Dally M-winning form from last year. His ability to go deep in the line, and more-often-than-not find the right option is unmatched in the competition. In 20 games he has engaged the line 211 times – 18 more than Cleary, 28 more than Ben Hunt and 52 more than anyone else. Alongside Walsh, Hynes leads the league in linebreak assists per match, at 1.6.
The Roosters finished off the Rabbitohs’ season surprisingly easily last Friday, even without the suspended forward Jared Warea-Hargreaves and injured back Joseph Manu. The prop will miss the rest of the season but Manu’s hamstring could deliver his return as early as Saturday.
Roosters fans can take hope from the sensational return of Sam Walker, after a season of form issues and injury. He played his first match since April in the round 26 clash against the Tigers, then against the Rabbitohs the 21-year-old looked comfortable in attack – setting up the crucial go-ahead try and scoring himself – and, most importantly, competent in defence.
The Roosters also have more room for improvement than almost anyone in the top eight. Representative stars James Tedesco, Luke Keary, Victor Radley, Angus Crichton, Joseph Sualii and Crichton have all been below their best in 2023. They have the reputations to go deep in September and, as one of only two teams left to have won their last five matches, the Roosters cannot be written off.
Sharks v Roosters, Pointsbet Stadium, Saturday 7:50pm
Newcastle v Canberra
The feelgood story of the NRL season is Newcastle. From a proud rugby league city, the Knights have rode an improbable, nine-match winning run into the finals. That has coincided with a return to form of fullback Kalyn Ponga. Alongside Nikora, Ponga has more linebreaks than any player who isn’t an outside back. The shoulder injury that kept him out of the club’s final round victory over the Dragons is unlikely to stop him playing on Sunday. And alongside Ponga, halfback Jackson Hastings is tipped to return after three weeks out with an ankle injury.
Wingers Dom Young and Greg Marzhew are both in the NRL’s top 10 try-scorer list – making Newcastle the only club afforded that boast. That reflects the Knights’ emerging identity: they have been almost impossible to stop from scoring. In their nine-match winning run, they have scored between 26 and 34 points seven times. The other two matches were against the Bulldogs, where they scored a combined 108 points.
The Raiders scraped into the finals despite finishing with a minus-137 points difference. But they managed to win the close ones, securing eighth place and a place in the finals ahead of three of the four preliminary finalists from 2022: the Rabbitohs, Eels and Cowboys.
Forward Josh Papalii will miss the remainder of the season following a bicep injury a week ago, shifting more pressure on Joe Tapine to carry the load in the absence of the suspended Corey Horsburgh. Among forwards, only Payne Haas and Fonua-Blake have accumulated more run metres this year than Canberra’s leading middle. In the backline, the loss of the suspended Sebastian Kris for his final-round spear tackle robs the Raiders of a major weapon. Club legend Jack Wighton has signed with Souths for next year. Sunday looms as his last outing for the Milk.
Knights v Raiders, McDonald Jones Stadium, Sunday 4:05pm
