So, after all the mocks, big boards and speculations the first round of the 2024 NFL draft is in the books. Here’s the complete list of selections:

1) Chicago Bears, Caleb Williams, QB, USC

2) Washington Commanders, Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU

3) New England Patriots, Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina

4) Arizona Cardinals, Marvin Harrison Jr, Ohio State

5) LA Chargers, Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame

6) New York Giants, Malik Nabers, WR, LSU

7) Tennessee Titans, JC Latham, OT, Alabama

8) Atlanta Falcons, Michael Penix Jr, QB, Washington

9) Chicago Bears, Rome Odunze, WR, Washington

10) Minnesota Vikings (from Jets), JJ McCarthy, QB, Michigan

11) New York Jets (from Vikings), Olu Fashanu, OT, Penn State

12) Denver Broncos, Bo Nix, QB, Oregon

13) Las Vegas Raiders, Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia

14) New Orleans Saints, Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State

15) Indianapolis Colts, Laiatu Latu, Edge, UCLA

16) Seattle Seahawks, Byron Murphy II, Texas

17) Minnesota Vikings (from Jaguars), Dallas Turner, Edge, Alabama

18) Cincinnati Bengals, Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia

19) LA Rams, Jared Verse, Edge, Florida State

20) Pittsburgh Steelers, Troy Fautanu, OT, Washington

21) Miami Dolphins, Chop Robinson, Edge, Penn State

22) Philadelphia Eagles, Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo

23) Jacksonville Jaguars (from Vikings), Brian Thomas Jr, WR, LSU

24) Detroit Lions (from Cowboys), Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama

25) Green Bay Packers, Jordan Morgan, OT, Arizona

26) Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Graham Barton, OL, Duke

27) Arizona Cardinals (from Texans), Darius Robinson, DL, Missouri

28) Kansas City Chiefs (from Bills), Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas

29) Dallas Cowboys (from Lions), Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma

30) Baltimore Ravens, Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson

31) San Francisco 49ers, Ricky Pearsall, WR, Florida

32) Carolina Panthers (from Bills), Xavier Legette, WR, South Carolina

That’s it for the evening. Thanks to everybody for following along with the Guardian’s live coverage of the draft. The Bills will be first up on the board tomorrow. Will they finally take a receiver?

The Legette pick marks the seventh wide receiver taken in the first round, setting a new draft record.

In all, 23 offensive players were selected in the first round:

• Six quarterbacks

• Seven wide receivers

• Nine offensive linemen

• One tight end

32. Carolina Panthers: Xavier Legette, WR, South Carolina

The Panthers are good to their word! They reportedly ‘promised’ the South Carolina receiver they’d select him with the first pick in the second round. But they jump up to the final pick in the first to make sure they land their guy. Legette is a bulky, quick receiver who has some Deebo Samuel to his game.

The Niners have reportedly been on the phone exploring trades for Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk. There could be some movement overnight.

Welcome to the first round, Carolina Panthers. They trade up with the Bills to snag the last pick of the night. They reportedly ‘promised’ wide receiver Xavier Legette they would pick him with the 33rd pick. Does that promise hold at 32?

31. San Francisco 49ers: Ricky Pearsall, WR, Florida

San Francisco picks up a receiver to pair with *deep breath* Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and George Kittle. Adding a receiver in the first round adds more fuel to the Brandon Aiyuk fire.

Let’s check in on how things are going with Kirk Cousins:

Not great, Bob.

We’re almost done with the first round. Will we see any team jump back in with the final two picks?

30. Baltimore Ravens: Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson

An upside play from the Ravens at corner. The defensive backfield was a pressing need for Baltimore, and Wiggins will compete for a starting spot from the jump. He got cooked by Drake Maye and North Carolina last season, but has top-tier length and speed – the tools that the NFL most covets at the position.

29. Dallas Cowboys: Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma

The Cowboys find their Tyron Smith replacement. Guyton has been discussed as a ‘project’ throughout the draft process. But he’s much further along in his development than he’s given credit for. Guyton has a towering, long frame and he packs a punch in the run game.

28. Kansas City Chiefs: Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas

The Chiefs go ahead and draft their Tyreek Hill replacement. Dropping Worthy’s speed onto an offense with Patrick Mahomes is flat-out unfair. But Worthy is about more than speed; he’s a tenacious competitor and a more polished route-runner than other deep burners in the class. Some speedsters are one-dimensional. Not Worthy.

But how about the Bills? After trading away Stefon Diggs, Buffalo are in need of finding some deep speed and a reliable pass-catcher outside. Worthy would have ticked both boxes. Instead, they now face the prospect of seeing the Mahomes-Worthy connection up close and personal in the AFC playoffs.

27. Arizona Cardinals: Darius Robinson, DL, Missouri

The Cards use their second first-round pick to select a versatile defensive lineman. Robinson has rocks for hands, and can line up inside or outside. The Cardinals finished 28th in pass-rush win rate last season. They needed to get bigger, deeper and more flexible up front. Robinson will help solve all those problems.

“I just want to tell Detroit, y’all got a star,” Terrion Arnold tells the 270,000 strong Lions crowd at the draft. “I’m home!”

26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Graham Barton, OL, Duke

And now all the o-linemen are coming off the board! Barton is considered one of the safest prospects in the draft. He’s a crafty linemen who played tackle in college but projects as a center in the NFL. He should be an instant starter in Tampa.

25. Green Bay Packers: Jordan Morgan, OT, Arizona

The Packers pick up another solid offensive lineman. Morgan is on the shorter side for a tackle with a small wingspan. He might have to move inside to guard in the NFL. But he’s a solid pass protector who could slot in for the outgoing David Bakhtiari at left tackle or start inside.

Trade! The Cowboys have moved down and the hometown Lions have leapt up to No 24

23. Jacksonville Jaguars: Brian Thomas Jr, WR, LSU

With Calvin Ridley leaving in free agency, the Jags take a swing on a boom-or-bust receiver. Thomas is a vertical threat who ran only two routes at a greater than 10% clip at LSU. Like his LSU teammate Malik Nabers, Thomas is a burner down the field. He led college football in 2023 with 17 touchdowns and averaged 17.3 yards per catch.

22. Philadelphia Eagles: Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo

The Eagles select a cornerback in the first-round for the first time since 2002. Mitchell is all about speed, speed and more speed. He didn’t concede a single touchdown as the nearest defender in coverage in four years in college.

Something for you, New England fans. Here is Bill Belichick with a detailed breakdown of new Patriots quarterback Drake Maye.

The Dolphins select edge-rusher Chop Robinson with the 21st pick.

Miami swoops in and grabs the springiest edge-rusher in the draft. Robinson is an undersized pass-rusher who can toggle between positions. Miami entered the draft in desperate need of a pass-rusher. Their defense fell apart down the stretch last season once Jaelan Phillips was lost to an injury. Robinson may never become an every-down player, but he’ll be a threat on third downs.

It’s just dawned on me that the NFL is still investigating the Falcons for tampering with Kirk Cousins prior to free agency. Is the funniest outcome to the Cousins-Penix situation, Cousins asking to be traded next year and the Falcons losing their 2025 first-round pick?

The Steelers select offensive tackle Troy Fautanu with the 20th pick.

Pittsburgh goes back-to-back years with offensive tackles in the first round. Fautanu is the most athletic linemen in a draft loaded with uber athletes. How often do you see an o-lineman dropping a spin move on a pass-rusher to counter their spin move?

The word ‘freak’ is thrown around too liberally with draft prospects. But Fautanu fits the billing.

Cam Heyward, Steelers ace and the NFL’s 2023 Walter Payton Man of the Year, is on stage to announce Pittsburgh’s pick.

Everyone except Mr Bowers looks very excited that Brock is on his way to Vegas

The LA Rams select edge-rusher Jared Verse 19th overall.

There was some thought the Rams could go hunting for an Aaron Donald replacement here. Instead, the Rams go with an all-gas, no-break edge rusher. Verse is a rocket off the snap and plays with a nasty streak. As technicians go, Verse would be well down the list in this class. He’s more of a through-your-facemask rusher. But his style – Verse wracked up 10-plus TFLs in each of his four seasons in college football.

Here’s a surprise: the Rams will be making a first-round pick for the first time since they selected Jared Goff in the 2016 draft.

The Bengals select offensive tackle Amarius Mims with the 18th pick.

Cincy adds another hulking tackle to go alongside Trent Brown and Orlando Brown Jr. Mims is one of the wildcards of the draft. He has the prototypical height, weight, speed and build for a top-tier offensive tackle. But he’s played barely any football. Mims struggled with injuries in his final year at Georgia, and has only seven career starts to his name. The talent is there – and the Bengals needed offensive line reinforcements – but this is a swing-for-the-fences pick.

So… back to the Falcons – again. This doesn’t look like a draft room that’s totally sold on the decision it just made.

The Vikings select Alabama pass-rusher Dallas Turner with the 17th pick.

Minnesota is going all Texans. First, they selected JJ McCarthy with the 10th pick. Now, they deal back up to grab the most explosive edge-rusher in the class. Turner is a classic dip-and-rip rusher who wins with speed and bend off the edge. He lacks some polish, but Turner plays with reckless abandon when defending the run and has the talent to be a three-down defensive anchor. The Vikings were heavily reliant on blitzing to get after opposing quarterbacks last season. Adding Turner will allow the team to get home with a four-man rush more consistently.

Trade! The Vikings have jumped up to the 17th pick, dealing away the No 23 pick, pick 167, a 2025 third-round pick and a 2025 fourth-round pick.

The Seahawks select defensive tackle Byron Murphy II with the 16th pick.

Murphy is the slight, quick-twitch penetrator in this class. Think Ed Oliver. Or, if you squint hard enough, you could see Aaron Donald. Internal pressure is the toughest thing to protect against in the NFL. Murphy will bring some needed sizzle to Seattle’s interior.

Away from the draft, the Vikings and Patriots reportedly called the Chargers about trading for Justin Herbert. Hey, it’s worth asking.

“I knew it. I manifested it,” Laiatu Latu tells NFL Network of being the first defensive player selected in the 2024 NFL draft two years after he was forced to medically retire.

The Colts select edge-rusher Laiatu Latu with the 15th overall pick.

Indy would have loved to have been in the Brock Bowers sweepstakes. But with Bowers off the board, the Colts essentially had the No 1 overall pick in the 2024 defensive draft. They used the pick to select the best edge-rusher in the class.

Teams have access to more statistics than ever, but when it comes to the final evaluation, GMs fall back on the oldest method of all: watching actual games. And if you watch those games, it’s clear Latu is as gifted as any player in this class.

But there are medical concerns. Latu suffered a neck injury at Washington in 2020 and was forced to retire from the sport. During his hiatus, he had multiple operations on his neck and took up rugby in Seattle. In 2022, he was cleared to return to football and transferred to UCLA, where he spent the next 24 months clowning all before him. His tape against Arizona is for mature audiences only.

It’s the style that grabs you with Latu. He’s the most distinctive pass-rushing prospect in recent years. It’s tempting to say Latu plays at his own pace, but that phrase is typically attached to slower guys. The 23-year-old is explosive in tight spaces. He’s good slow and fast. He plays at whatever pace serves him. There are times when he isn’t even really rushing the passer, at least not in the traditional sense. It’s as though he’s playing his own sport, some fusion of MMA and interpretive dance; he’s all limbs and head fakes and unorthodox approaches to knifing into the backfield.

Latu is stylistically mesmerizing, but that style has substance. He finished with 27 sacks and 107 total pressures in his two years at UCLA, the highest rate in college football. His 26.2% pass rush win rate in his final year is tied for the highest figure on record. If the surgeries affected his game, it didn’t show up at UCLA. In two seasons with the team he did not miss a game due to injury.

Latu is one of the coolest stories of the draft: He’s gone from being a part-time rugby player/part-time fire-fighter to being the first defensive player off the board.

According to ESPN’s Adam Schefter:

“The record of most offensive players to open a draft was seven in 2021. And now the record has been doubled: first 14 picks have all been offensive players.”

The Saints select Oregon State Taliese Fuaga with the 14th pick.

The Saints probably need to come out of this draft with two starters on their offensive line. They start early, grabbing the best run blocker in the class with the 14th pick. Fuaga started 25 games at right tackle in college, but he has a small wingspan so could move inside at the next level. He’s an elite blocker on the move and is always looking to blast people. Fuaga is the first Oregon State player to be drafted in the first round since Brandin Cooks in 2014.

Falcons fans are not taking the Penix pick well:

And NFL Network reports that Kirk Cousins was not given a heads up that the pick was coming. ESPN’s Dianna Russini reports Cousins was ‘stunned’ by the pick. No worries, he only has $100m guaranteed to him for the next two seasons. Uh-oh.

That offense-defense tally: 13 picks; 13 offensive players; zero defensive players. Let’s set the over-under for the rest of the first round at 6.5 for defensive players.

Brock Bowers goes off the board to the Las Vegas Raiders with the 13th pick.

One of the most fascinating prospects in the class is on his way to Vegas. Bowers is a dynamic tight end who, in reality, is a wide receiver in tight ends clothing. Bowers had 56 catches for 714 yards and six touchdowns last season, doing a ton of damage with the ball in his hand after the catch. There might not have been a more fun player in college football over the last two years. He hurdles defenders. He runs through defenders. He runs away from defenders. As a pure tight end, he’s a limited blocker. But Vegas did not draft him to lead the line in the run game. He’s arriving to bounce around the formation and catch passes.

Profile: Bo Nix, QB, Oregon. Nix is an older QB who was viewed as an undraftable prospect back in his Auburn days but caught fire once he transferred to Oregon. He’s a point-guard style quarterback, who distributes the ball around to his playmakers and has enough of a feel as a playmaker to create plays with his legs. If you squint hard enough, you can see an NFL starter. He has the experience in an expansive offense to be able to play for Sean Payton right away.

That’s 11 offensive players off the board with the first 11 picks. Denver are up next. And with all the top quarterbacks off the board, we should see the first defensive player taken here.

The Jets select Olu Fashanu, LT, Penn State with the 11th pick.

So the Jets decide to find a protector for Aaron Rodgers rather than trying to find a spark-plug at the skill positions. Will the moaner-in-chief be happy with the decision?

Fashanu is still a raw tackle. He has started only 21 games in his career and turned 21 in December. He’s a big toolsy tackle with arms so long they look CGI’d on. In the run game, he moves like a tight end. In pass protection, he’s too big for pass-rushers to run through and has quick enough feet to shuffle with even the most agile pass-rushers. His technique needs some work. And that stuff takes time, something the Jets are short on.

Profile: JJ McCarthy, QB, Michigan. If ever there was a place for McCarthy to land, it would be Minnesota. From my pre-draft look at McCarthy:

“No player has been more polarizing this cycle than McCarthy. His advocates see a quarterback of untapped potential, with a big arm, wheels and a fearless streak. His detractors point to McCarthy’s time at Michigan and say, with those skills, he should have produced more.

McCarthy guided Michigan to the national championship with a roster loaded with future NFL talent – by the time the draft concludes, the 2023 Wolverines roster will probably have more players drafted than any team in history. Given the surplus of talent, McCarthy was asked to mind the shop, to play within the offense, to hand the ball off to running backs (a lot) and play smart, mistake-free football. He rarely threw on third down, largely because Michigan were comfortably ahead in games – or they were so overwhelming that they did not need third downs.

For some decision-makers, McCarthy is the platonic ideal of a quarterback prospect: A talented passer with the athletic traits and intangibles that make scouts and GMs purr. He’s a proven winner and leader, who has been drawing up plays since he was five years old. He told fellow recruits looking at joining Michigan that “if they wanted to party and chase girls, go somewhere else”, according to draft analyst Dane Brugler.

It’s telling, however, that leaks from the scouting world reference everything except McCarthy’s ability to complete passes. Call it the Daniel Jones Zone. There are flashes from his college resume, but the quarterback that teams want him to be in the pros is different from the one he was asked to be at Michigan.”

Minnesota is the ideal landing spot, though. No coach is more willing to overhaul the mechanics of their system to fit their QB than Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell. McCarthy was pushed into a more traditional system at Michigan, which hampered some of his natural instincts. He has a dynamite arm and an excellent athlete. O’Connell will tap into that side of his game more than Jim Harbaugh did at Michigan. Oh, and throwing to Justin Jefferson isn’t a bad thing for a young quarterback.

From Neil Saffer: “With Malik Nabers, have the Giants found the perfect blend?”

They sure have! In a normal world, where Marvin Harrison Jr walking around, Nabers would be the slam-dunk top receiver in the draft. He’s more of a nuanced route-runner than he’s given credit for because his speed leaps off the screen. He wins contested catches. He creates after the catch. And he can dunk on defensive backs down the field. Brian Daboll is one of the best play-callers in the league at springing receivers open through play design. If he’s able to get Nabers out into space untouched, no one can keep up with him.

Trade! The Vikings have sent a fourth and fifth-round pick to the Jets to jump up one spot to No 11.

Profile: Rome Odunze, WR, Washington. How about this for a one-two punch? After picking up Keenan Allen via trade this offseason and stealing DJ Moore last season, the Bears add Rome Odunze to the fold. Odunze is a big-bodied receiver who dominates at the catch-point. He’s one of those outside receivers who widens a quarterback’s margin for error. His most common comparison in the pre-draft process: Keenan Allen. The Bears certainly have a type.

The Chicago Bears select Washington wide receiver Rome Odunze to pair with Caleb Williams at No 9.

Profile: Michael Penix Jr, QB, Washington. THE shock of the draft. The Falcons grab a quarterback of the future in the same offseason they signed Kirk Cousins to a huge free-agent contract. NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reports that this is all about ‘succession’ planning, which is strange, because Penix is 24-years-old and will be 26 by the time Cousins’ contract expires. Penix is the best pure pocket passer in this class. He can spin it to anywhere on the field. The knocks on Penix are three-fold: he played in a goofy offense at Washington; he was surrounded by first-round talent; he’s had a series of injuries. Penix had four season-ending injuries in college. He tore two ACLs in two years, and it limits his ability to move around and extend plays, a prerequisite in the modern NFL. If anything, Penix has some Kirk Cousins to his game – albeit with a bigger arm. Maybe the Falcons know what they’re doing after all.

Profile: JC Latham, OT, Alabama. It’s not a surprise that the Titans opted for a huge tackle to help provide some protection for Will Levis. Latham is a gigantic human being who was inconsistent in college. Latham is all tools: he has a big frame, is a bouncy athlete and has the length that all NFL teams covet. But he is an unrefined prospect. For someone so big, Latham does not put a dent in defensive front. He can be passive in pass protection, willing to concede first contact and betting on his athleticism to recover. That can work for an overwhelming talent in college. Against the likes of Myles Garrett or Maxx Crosby, not so much.

And so for all the talk of trades in the top 10, it’s been relatively quiet so far. The Titans are up at No 7 and their pick is in. If this isn’t an offensive lineman, send flowers to Will Levis.

Profile: Malik Nabers, WR, LSU. The Giants had one of the slowest offenses in the NFL last season. That all changed tonight. Nabers is the most explosive receiver in the class. Typically, ‘quick’ wide receivers are judged by their long speed. Nabers is quick in everything he does. He’s agile in and out of breaks. He modulates his tempo, tempting receivers to slow down before exploding by them. He was responsible for a whole chunk of Jayden Daniels’ production deep down the field. He finished 2023 with 89 catches, 1,569 yards and 14 touchdowns.

If you want to have a fun evening, grab a beverage of your choice and pull up the highlights of Nabers’ most devastating work.

Profile: Joe Alt, LT, Notre Dame. The Notre Dame left tackle has everything teams covet in a blindside protector: size, tenacity, slick feet and a solid base. He can also bring some oomph to the run game. Jim Harbaugh’s offense is built around a power running scheme, and Alt is the ideal fit as someone who can put a dent in the front or slice across the formation as a blocker. There was some clamour for the Chargers to add a receiver after losing Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, but protecting Justin Herbert is the main priority. There are some fit concerns: Alt played exclusively at left tackle at Notre Dame. In Rashawn Slater, the Chargers already have a solid left tackle. Who will move to the right side?

Marvin Harrison Jr may wind up setting a new trend among draftees. He refused to participate in any of the traditional pre-draft tomfoolery. He didn’t work out at the combine. He didn’t do any drills at Ohio State’s Pro Day. He hasn’t even signed the NFLPA’s rookie charter, meaning he’s not eligible to license NFL sanctioned products between now and the time he signs his contract with the Cardinals – you can’t even buy a Harrison Jr jersey yet (sorry, Cardinals fans). And yet even after thumbing his nose at the process, he winds up going fourth overall.

Ohio State once had a receiver room of Marvin Harrison Jr, Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. My word.

Profile: Marvin Harrison Jr, WR, Ohio State. The name will sound familiar. Harrison is the son of Hall of Famer Marvin Harrison. Harrison Jr has been the dominant force in college football over the past two seasons. He caught 77 passes for 1,263 yards with 14 touchdowns in 2022. In 2023, he finished with 67 catches for 1,211 yards and 15 total touchdowns. Harrison has the ideal blend of physical skill and smarts. He isn’t a complete burner, but he has outstanding hands and size, and has already mastered the nuances of the position. There might be no one on Earth happier tonight than Kyler Murray.

The pick is in for Arizona and the Chargers are now up on the clock. When will we get the start of the trade spree?

Profile: Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina. If we’re judging on arm talent alone, Maye would be the top quarterback in the class. He’s a big, strong, deep-ball bomber with shades of Justin Herbert. The knock on Maye is that he’s inconsistent. His accuracy can wax and wane. But Maye can make jaw-dropping throws down the field and he’s an excellent athlete when he opts to the run the ball. There’s plenty to clean up, but Maye will bring some dynamism to a New England offense in dire need of some juice. The only question is when he will start.

Profile: Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU. Daniels is the reigning Heisman Trophy winner. He started out at Arizona State before transferring to LSU where he exploded in 2023. Daniels was prolific at LSU, posting the top QBR in the country, averaging 11.7 yards per attempt and completing 72% of his passes. He can do damage driving the ball down the field from the pocket and is an electric athlete when running with the ball. But Daniels is a funky prospect; he was a legitimate duel threat at LSU, but it’s tough to figure out if best elements of his game – his running, his deep ball – will smoothly transition to the NFL. He doesn’t possess Lamar Jackson-esque breakaway speed and has a brittle frame. He did a poor job of protecting himself as a runner in college and took some ginormous shots. As a thrower from the pocket, he has a snappy delivery and a dreamy deep ball. But he struggles to shift to his second and third reads due to some robotic mechanics – and had one of the worst pressure-to-sack rates of any quarterback in recent college history. Washington are betting on his upside. They’re betting that he can refine areas of his game (adding some size and becoming more decisive). There’s a chance this winds up being an RGIII 2.0 situation. But if Daniels can smooth off his rough edges, the Commanders will have a dynamic quarterback for years to come.

Washington’s pick is in. Which means the Patriots are now up on the clock. Will they select Drake Maye, JJ McCarthy or trade the pick?

Profile: Caleb Williams, Quarterback, USC. Williams has been the favorite to be the Bears’ pick all along. He is known for his out-of-time creativity, but he is a cleaner pocket passer than the typical freelance artists. There have been non-stop comparisons to Patrick Mahomes for two years, thanks to his ability to extend plays and spin magic with his arms and leg. One GM recently compared Williams to Prince, which was intended as a criticism but sounds like a hell of a compliment. Williams has been the top quarterback in college football for two seasons running. 2023 was considered a down year for Williams after his Heisman Trophy-winning season in 2022, but Williams showed growth as a passer despite USC’s struggles. In Chicago, he will land on a team ready to make an immediate playoff push, a unique situation for a No 1 overall pick.

And the Chicago Bears are now officially on the clock! The only lingering question: will they run the pick up to the podium or will they take their full ten minutes?

Roger Goodell walks out to a rousing chorus of boos – thank you to Detroit for maintaining the league’s most delightful tradition. He brought out Eminem, Calvin Johnson, Aidan Hutchinson and Jared Goff with him, which helped a little.

Also: Calvin Johnson looks like he would still be the best receiver in the league.

Bill Belichick is not presiding over a draft for the first time since 2000. Instead, he’s holed up with a denim-clad Pat McAfee breaking down his draft board. Worth noting (maybe?) Belichick has the top QBs in this order: Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye. Will New England agree?

Predictions

Okay. Time for some last-minute predictions. Here’s how I see the top five playing out:

1) Chicago Bears, Caleb Williams, QB, USC

2) Washington Commanders, Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU

3) New England Patriots, Drake Maye, QB, UNC

4) Arizona Cardinals, Marvin Harrison Jr, WR, Ohio State

5) Los Angeles Chargers, JC Latham, OT, Alabama

(Note: The Chargers should auction this pick to the highest bidder looking to trade up for JJ McCarthy.)

Thoughts, questions, comments? You can email oliver.connolly@guardian.com or tweet @OllieConnolly

Here comes the pomp. We just had a delightful rendition of ‘Lift Every Voice and Sing’ from Angela Davis. A 9.5/10. There were tears, cheers and only a couple of people chugging beers (step it up, Detroit).

The drama is almost under way. Well, not exactly. The Bears will soon be on the clock and Caleb Williams will be on his way to Chicago.

Don’t tell this Vikings fan, but Minnesota’s bold strategy to deal for an extra first-round pick back in March, in hopes of giving them the ammunition needed to jump up for one of this year’s top quarterbacks, may come to … nothing.

Jeff Darlingon of ESPN reports that things are “tense” inside Minnesota’s war room as they try to engineer a move up the draft board.

Oops. It’s kind of peculiar that Minnesota felt the need to make the deal with the Texans so early in the process rather than waiting until draft night to see how the board played out.

It’s almost time to kick things off. One subplot to keep an eye on: will Roger Goodell be able to give his infamous bear hugs? ESPN’s Adam Schefter reports that the commissioner had back surgery three weeks ago, putting his typical ‘welcome to the NFL’ moment in jeopardy.

Remember when Goodell got to run the draft from a lounge chair in his basement? That was fun (and a little weird). He should be able to chill in a recliner and call out the picks every year.

This is Detroit’s first time hosting the league’s annual carnival. And they’re doing things in a typically Detroit style. How about Dan Campbell as a ‘Grit and Glory’ fortune teller?

If you can’t be in Detroit to hang out with Campbell, you can catch the draft here:

• US: 5pm, NFL Network/ABC

• UK: 1am, Sky Sports Main Event

• Australia: 10am, ESPN

Caleb Williams will almost certainly be the first player off the board to the Bears with the No 1 overall pick. Who will be the No 2 pick? Here’s how our writers (myself included) view it:

Congrats to Kliff Kingsbury because the Washington offensive coordinator is going to have a blast with LSU’s Jayden Daniels, who is coming off a spectacular year with the Tigers. His explosive playmaking is evident, but his play in the pocket has vastly improved. This kid is just getting started. Melissa Jacobs

North Carolina’s Drake Maye has more upside, but Washington, riding 20-plus years of stink, need a quarterback with wins in his arm, now. Daniels is the fast track to respectability: a speedy, mobile, creative force at LSU, he ran for 10 touchdowns last season and threw with deadly accuracy. David Lengel

It feels like a lock that it will be Daniels, thought I wouldn’t put it past the Commanders to fall in love with Michigan’s JJ McCarthy. Daniels is a funky prospect; he was a starry duel threat at LSU, but it’s tough to see whether the best elements of his game – his running, his deep ball – will smoothly transition to the NFL. He doesn’t possess Lamar Jackson-esque breakaway speed and has a brittle frame. As a thrower from the pocket, he has a snappy delivery but struggles to shift to his second and third reads. There is some RGIII to his game. Do Washington want to tread that path again? Oliver Connolly

It’s Drake Maye. The buzz suggests Washington are in love with Jayden Daniels but when head coach Dan Quinn searches his feelings he will find Maye bears striking similarities to his former QB in Atlanta, Matt Ryan. The UNC star has a cannon for an arm (both a blessing and a curse, leading to accuracy issues) and is the unflappable franchise leader the Commanders need. Graham Searles

You can also catch up on more of our draft previews here:

• ‘Wait for my dress’: Caleb Williams is the Zoomer QB to shake up the hidebound Bears

• Forgotten picks to gas mask bongs: the strangest NFL draft moments

• NFL draft: high demand and supply set to create a glut of first-round QBs

• A national champion to an English giant: the NFL draft’s most intriguing prospects

Oliver will be here shortly. In the meantime here’s a look at our predictions for tonight and the days to come.