Sometimes you don’t know what you’ve got until it’s gone. But Sydney were well aware of what they had with John Longmire long before he departed. The former head coach steered the Swans to a premiership in his second year in charge and a finals berth in 12 of 14 seasons. Four grand final defeats, including a pair of heavy losses in the past three years, understandably wore Longmire down as much as the players. The coach made his last ruthless call when deciding it was time for a fresh voice – if not quite a change of direction.

Following a generational leader does not have to be a poisoned chalice; Longmire proved that when taking the reins from Paul Roos. The Swans won two of their first five matches under their new coach in 2011 before a late surge lifted them into the finals. A flag came the following year. The Swans have now won two of their first seven games under their next head coach, as Dean Cox was dealt a reasonably bad hand and then paid the price for doubling down with dicey moves that haven’t come off.

Like even the smoothest of succession plans, the transition from Longmire to Cox faced bumps on the road from the start. The Swans learned in 2023 how difficult it is to bounce back from a grand final humiliation. They are now on track to become the 14th team in the past 30 years to fall away in the year after losing a decider by 40 points or more. At least 11 wins from their remaining 16 matches will likely be needed for the Swans to avoid becoming the seventh of those wounded runners-up in three decades to miss the finals the following season.

Long-term injuries to the captain, Callum Mills, and tireless midfielder Errol Gulden before the opening round – as well as livewire forward Tom Papley after three games – have taken away much of the Swans’ spark. But the absence of the influential trio has exposed their reliance on star power as much as it has tested their depth. Gun onballers Isaac Heeney and Chad Warner were able to inspire their side to a string of come-from-behind victories last season but have rarely hit the same heights this year without the same top-line support. The issue became most glaring after the pair led Sydney to a five-goal lead over Gold Coast on Sunday before their side gave up the next 12 majors once the hosts’ on-ball brigade took command.

The inability to shut down opposition momentum will worry the Swans almost as much as their current 2-5 record. They could take lessons from the way that sides have stifled their own ball movement, which was as devastating as we have seen during their run of 13 wins from 14 matches to start last season. Since then, teams have slowed down their dash and dare by clogging up the corridor and limiting the ease with which the Swans can chip their way forward through uncontested marks.

The lack of penetration is partly behind Sydney plummeting from being last year’s biggest scorers to now only sitting above bottom-four sides Melbourne, Richmond and the West Coast for average points. It is a change that Cox appears to have seen coming. Heeney and Warner are spending more time forward but have been unable to do as much damage as when they were the most potent midfielders in the competition last year. The dynamic duo can’t solve every problem and it is the lack of a focal point that remains among the Swans’ primary concerns.

Cox took a punt on finding a spearhead in-house, shifting proven key defender Tom McCartin forward from the start of the first game. The 25-year-old has bounced between the back and forward halves since then, but two goals and a single mark inside 50 are an underwhelming return for a player who reads the ball so well in the air. The coach was prepared to “put my hand up” when conceding before the clash with the Suns that McCartin needed to again settle in defence, in a refreshing concession even after a harder edge had perhaps already been revealed. Cox is unlikely to have started his reign by robbing from the defence in search of a payoff forward of the ball if he was confident Logan McDonald, Joel Amartey or Hayden McLean might step up and become the frontman rather than all being part of the same supporting cast.

It is far from unusual for a coach to face a test of their credentials early in their tenure, and after a long stint as an assistant Cox took his place in the hot seat as highly regarded as any first-year head coach has been. But with Sydney in a slump and losing touch with the top eight ahead of a clash with heated rivals the GWS Giants this weekend, the Swans and their new coach can ill afford any more gambles that miss the mark even while waiting for reinforcements to arrive.

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