Belgium will have to improve if they are to win today’s match against a plucky New Zealand and secure their spot in the round of 32.
They currently sit 10th out of the 12 third-placed teams, with only the top 8 progressing to the knock-outs.
As Ben Fisher wrote in his match report after their 0-0 draw against Iran:
Their record at major tournaments now reads two wins from their past nine matches, one from their past six, against Romania at Euro 2024. They have had a total of 38 shots in their opening two games in the US without scoring themselves, their sole goal coming courtesy of the Egypt defender Mohamed Hany. They missed the energy of Jérémy Doku, who was absent through illness, while Romelu Lukaku, making his first start for club or country for more than 12 months, huffed and puffed in attack.
Head coach Rudi Garcia certainly sees today’s match as a must-win for his underperforming side, though I’m not sure the cycling metaphor is instilling the kind of confidence he thinks it is:
Sometimes when you have to win, sometimes that’s the best situation. Obviously we had wished to start better. But, just like cyclists, we have to keep pedalling on and on and show we deserve to move on to the round of 32.
Belgium XI
Five changes for Belgium after their frustrating 0-0 draw against Iran.
Timothy Castagne replaces Thomas Meunier at right-back, while Arthur Theate starts at centre-back in place of the red-carded Nathan Ngoy.
Hans Vanaken comes into midfield instead of Nicolas Raskin, Jeremy Doku is back in the starting team to replace Alexis Saelemaekers, and Charles De Ketelaere is up front in place of Romelu Lukaku.
Belgium XI (4-2-3-1): Courtois; De Cuyper, Theate, Mechele, Castagne; Tielemans, Vanaken; Doku, De Bruyne, Trossard; De Ketelaere.
New Zealand XI
Two changes for New Zealand’s team from their loss to Egypt: Tyler Bindon starts at centre-back in place of the highly experienced Michael Boxall, while Callum McCowatt makes way for Ryan Thomas in midfield.
New Zealand XI (4-2-3-1) Crocombe; Payne, Surman, Bindon, Cacace; Stamenic, Bell; Thomas, Singh, Just; Wood.
So, what happens next?
Belgium will guarantee qualification to the next round with a win against New Zealand, while New Zealand need to beat Belgium to sneak into third spot in Group G (and hope Iran lose to Egypt to potentially leapfrog them into second).
In today’s simultaneous game, Egypt will guarantee qualification with a draw or a win against Iran, while Iran will qualify if they defeat Egypt.
The winner of Group G will then face the third-placed team from one of Group A, H, I or J (which at this stage could be one of South Korea, Senegal, or Algeria)
The runner-up of Group G will play the runner-up of Group D, Australia
If the third-placed team from Group G qualifies for the round of 32, they’ll take on the winner of either Group B (Switzerland) or Group I (France)
Turning our attention back to today’s match, New Zealand v Belgium could create history in more ways than one, depending on which team comes out on top.
For New Zealand, a win against Belgium would not only be the biggest win in the All Whites’ World Cup history, but it would be their first ever World Cup win full stop.
This is just the third tournament appearance for the World Cup’s lowest-ranked nation (86th) after they qualified first in 1982 and again in 2010.
They lost every game in that first rodeo, but it was in South Africa that they recorded arguably their greatest World Cup result to date, a 1-1 draw against Italy, whom they leapfrogged to finish third (which was, coincidentally, Italy’s last tournament appearance).
A win against world number 9 Belgium today could catapult this exciting young group of Kiwis to new, historic heights.
Belgium, meanwhile, are hoping to avoid making a different kind of history. This is their 13th World Cup tournament, having debuted at the first edition in 1930 and been a regular presence since, with their best ever finish coming in Russia 2018 (3rd).
But the team has slowly regressed since then with a shock group stage exit in Qatar 2022 and a round of 16 defeat at the 2024 men’s Euros.
If they lose today’s match, it will be the first time in the country’s almost century-long World Cup history that they’ve failed to make it out of the group stage in back-to-back tournaments.
After today’s incredible Cape Verde result, it feels like anything is possible.
History for Cape Verde!!!
The World Cup’s smallest nation has qualified for the round of 32 after a third successive draw, holding Saudi Arabia to 0-0 in Houston, Texas.
As soon as the full-time whistle blew, the players sprinted to the sideline to gather around the phones of their coaching staff who were following the live results of the other Group H match.
Slowly, as the full-time result began filtering around the stadium, the players exploded into joy: Spain 1-0 Uruguay.
Uruguay’s loss means the tiny island nation catapults up Group H and into second spot, making it through to the knock-out phase on their World Cup debut. Extraordinary.
It also means both Saudi Arabia and Uruguay, two nations who are hosting the next two World Cups, are OUT.
Cape Verde will now face title-holders Argentina in a true David v Goliath match.
Updated
In a nerve-jangling stalemate playing out at the moment, Cape Verde have leapfrogged Uruguay and landed in second spot in Group H while holding out Saudi Arabia. Find out whether the World Cup debutants will continue their journey, or whether Saudi Arabia can find a late goal to leap into second spot.
While we’re waiting for New Zealand and Belgium to draw closer, Uruguay are on the brink of a World Cup exit after falling behind against Spain. Follow along to find out whether they can find an equaliser to keep their last-32 dreams alive.
Preamble
Hello and welcome to the final match day of Group G with New Zealand taking on Belgium at BC Place in Vancouver. Kick-off for today’s match will be 8:00pm local time (11pm EDT/4am BST/1pm AEST).
This is the third and final match of Group G, with all four teams playing simultaneously to see who will qualify out of one of the tightest groups of this World Cup.
As it stands, just three points separate first from fourth, with Egypt (4) leading the group followed closely by Iran (2), Belgium (2), and New Zealand (1).
While a number of other fourth-placed teams have entered this final match day already eliminated thanks to Fifa’s new head-to-head ruling, there is still a ray of hope for New Zealand.
Their opening 2-2 draw against Iran, combined with Belgium’s two draws in their first two matches, means a win for the All Whites today could see them leapfrog the world number 10 and qualify for their first ever World Cup knock-outs.
Belgium, for their part, currently sit outside the best-ranked third-placed teams after two disappointing performances against Egypt (1-1) and Iran (0-0).
They will be particularly frustrated by their performance against Iran last week, which saw Nathan Ngoy receive a straight red card and a side stacked with stars fail to get past the stand-out Alireza Beiranvand in goal.
All of which is to say that both teams need a win today (though Belgium could settle for another draw) to progress to the round of 32.
Elsewhere, Egypt are also taking on Iran in Seattle to determine who could top the group and thus secure an easier opponent in the next stage. Jonathan Howcroft is leading that live blog here if you’d like to follow along with both.
Updated
